November 2022 – Page 2 – The Laughing Wolf

Asymmetrical Musings 1

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

There are many, many lessons coming out of the Russia-Ukraine war. First one is, when Russia tells you that plan to annex you back into Russia, not only do you need to believe them, you need to convince everyone else in the world they mean what they say. After 2014, the Ukraine began to prepare and there was a massive change in the mindset there. That deserves a full column on its own.

Despite its losses, Russia is determined to regain its former territories and if thwarted now, they will try again later. As long as the current Russia/Russian government exists, it will keep trying. Also, per previous, if Vladimir can’t have the Ukraine now, he may well make it were no one will have it.

Now, on to this morning’s musings. Whether tube, rocket, or other, artillery has proven itself to still be the king of battle. The tank is not dead, but is going to have to continue to adapt to a rapidly changing threat environment. Infantry is not going anywhere either, though training and flexibility are going to be key.

The real key out of all of what we are seeing, however, is ingenuity and mental flexibility. This will be particularly true for anyone who finds themselves occupied, effectively occupied, or threatened with occupation by unfriendly forces be it a rapacious neighbor (cough baltic states taiwan cough) or other. Given all, if I were in such a location, I would be looking at trying to stockpile electronics, 3-D printers, and a few other things. More on that another day, but COTS can win the day.

In any war, battle, or skirmish, the party who thinks fastest laughs last. Yep, borrowed that from John Ringo, but it is true and really is the key to asymmetrical conflict. There was a Ukrainian commercial about shovels that our leadership and intel people missed, that hammered home on the need for fast thinking, innovation, and then decisive action. All based around the common shovel and use of same.

The ability to think, adapt, and overcome is essential to any war, but when you add in the need to set aside conventional thinking and operations, it puts it on a very different level. After all, your opponent may have fighters, nukes, tanks, oh my! You may have few or none. That’s when having a mind that can step outside the box means the difference between success and slavery.

Going back to this discussion of nuclear targeting, I brought up the theory of selective elimination as a bit of humor with some serious undertones. In the example used, Vladimir might not target Washington DC and various state capitals because leaving them intact would do more damage to the U.S. than nuking them. To be honest, I can make a good case for it. That’s another post for another day.

Selective elimination is a tactic useful in asymmetric warfare and long-term warfare. In simplest terms, you target the competent leadership of your enemy and leave the incompetents in place. It can be direct elimination, or it can involve denying competent leadership the chance to showcase what they can do by refusing action to them.

It also can be done by putting that competent leadership into an untenable position dictated by the enemy’s domestic politics. Gen. Cope and Preston Pans comes to mind for that. You can find a good presentation on selective elimination given in the book The Island Worlds by Eric Kotani and John Maddox Roberts. Good series by the way, fun reads.

Now, to bring what you may have thought was a non sequitur (or my lightning fuzzed short term memory issues shining through) back onto topic, think back to the very early days of the war. Think back to the Ukrainians getting inside Russian coms and playing whack-a-general. My question is, were we watching the Ukrainians play a variant of the selective elimination process?

Note that of the ones that got a lot of coverage, the ones killed were those who were out trying to rally and lead their troops. That in and of itself speaks to professionalism if not competence. How many leaders at various levels were recalled, replaced, etc. because they could not successfully engage the Ukrainians.

No, selective elimination by itself won’t win a war or end an occupation. But it will make the territory that much harder to take, much less control. It is but one facet of the lynchpin that is laughing last.

Addendum: Don’t forget, leadership extends from the lowest levels on up. When occupied, look for the competent and effective leaders, officers and NCOs, from the squad on up. Eliminate enough of those rally points and it hamstrings even the most effective of generals.

Into The Light: Robert Clary

While known to many as Cpl. Lebeau on Hogan’s Heroes, Robert Clary was a multi-talented entertainer. He was also the only survivor in his family of the Holocaust, with his parents and 14 siblings dying in the camps. His life ended yesterday at 96 years of age, but his story will live on for the ages because of his efforts to share his story and bear witness to what he saw in the camps. Read a bit more a bout him and the untold story of Hogan’s Heroes. Godspeed.

Artemis

DISCLAIMER: I have worked twice as a contractor for NASA, once during the Spacelab era and then with commercial space development activities. My views are my own, and do not reflect anyone or anything else. See full disclaimer for more

My thoughts on Artemis and the new Space Launch System (SLS) are mixed. I am glad it finally got off the ground, as it is the first “new” system NASA has developed and launched since the mid-70s. Yep, that’s right, it was then that the Shuttle/original SLS was developed. Until now, nothing made it through to launch. Of course, Artemis/SLS are Shuttle-derived technology, so it’s hard to call it truly new.

As I noted yesterday, I agree with Stephen Green that I really don’t expect to see this system really used for cargo or much of anything else. At its current rate of development and flights, I fully expect a much better and reusable commercial system (hopefully several) to be available well before it completes development.

I’m really glad to see it launch because of the secondary payloads onboard. One of those cubesats will be using a solar sail to go explore Near Earth Asteroids and rendezvous with one, which is something I think will be useful on several levels. This is a great test of solar sails and we need all the info we can get on NEAs and linking up with them for potential commercial activities. Disclaimer: I know, like, and respect the Principal Investigator, Les Johnson.

I do hope all of the mission is successful. I just don’t see the system as a viable means forward.

I need to do a post one day soon looking at some of the reasons why NASA went from being the “can do” agency to a bureaucracy that when they considered a new logo a former supervisor suggested ‘a hiney sitting on a laurel wreath.’ I also need to do a post on the elephant in the room for long-term missions in orbit or to planets: human reproduction.

More soon.

Missile, Missile, In The Air

You’re going to fall to Earth somewhere. Late yesterday, there were posts saying two Russian cruise missiles had missed a target in the Ukraine and hit Poland instead. Other than noting I really could do without Russian quality control, I joined with a few other sane people to encourage waiting, getting facts, and noting that this was a NATO Article 4 situation, not 5. Then, being so terrified by the more outrageous tweets and reports (/sarc) I went to bed.

Even before I went to bed, I was noticing amidst the many calls for NATO to take action, that some key people were being very precise with their wording. Such as “Russian made rocket” and the like. When politicians and other senior types get that precise, there is a reason.

Sure enough, this morning there is confirmation that they were not Russian cruise missiles, or even SRBMs. Instead, they were anti-aircraft missiles launched by the Ukrainians at Russian missiles. Russian built, yes; but, not Russian fired. Those pushing for a “real” war between NATO and Russia seem to be switching gears to the concept that Russia was responsible since it was their attack that resulted in the missiles being fired.

As we’ve discussed here before, back in the very early days, there are a number of people and countries who want a no-fly zone over the Ukraine. That such would guarantee an expansion of the war and pit NATO versus Russia is the goal desired by them. Some of them are former client states, who know Russia’s goals for reunification and have no desire to ever be subject to Moscow again. Hard to blame them, but let’s consider other options before starting WWIII. Others have their own reason, and a number of politicians and oligarchia around the world (including the U.S.) see a chance to get rich and continue centralizing government power off another endless war.

After all, the people most likely to die are deplorables and low-lifes anyway, not the upper-crust elite blue check/Ivy League/WEF crowd. The so-called elites want to thin those people out anyway. Nope, breaking thousands of eggs for an omelette is fine by them as none of their types will be among the eggs used.

The problem with that is, if things go the way they easily could, they may be among the first to go. Let’s face it, those big cities so favored by the so-called elites? Targets. In part because of the elites.

As I noted here and here, we are headed into far more dangerous times rather than into calmer in regards war. Throw in all the domestic and international issues and problems, and it just gets better and better (/sarc)

Yesterday provides a great example in terms of how far too many, including our leaders, really don’t understand Russia or the Russian people. No, they are not just like us but speak a different language. They have a very different history and culture that shapes their actions and reactions.

Look at the Russian reaction to the accusations they had hit Poland. As I noted elsewhere, the standard Russian reaction to anyone calling it out on anything is a combination of overly dramatic soccer player screaming like he’s being gutted by Jack the Ripper and falling to the ground when someone moves within five feet of him, and psycho Mel Gibson from Lethal Weapon. ‘Oh, oh, I’ve been attacked and I will retaliate massively. You know I will, I’m crazy, I’ve proven it, do or say anything and it’s on!’ Tip: the more they scream and threaten over an accusation, the more guilty they are.

In many respects, the best response is to respond with reason crossed with psycho Mel Gibson. The problem is, that is a fine line to walk. Especially given three key pieces of cultural baggage.

First, you have the Russian cultural inferiority complex. If you’ve not read some of work on Russians and culture by Kamil Galeev, or some of the really good history books, it can be hard to understand. Short version, they’ve always seen themselves as the downtrodden country bumpkins in comparison to other countries, particularly Germany and England. It’s why when Catherine decided to “modernize” Russia she imported Germans, made them nobles, and used the German model of government and society for Russia. It’s a factor in German/Russian relations to this day.

Second, you have another layer of cultural inferiority that comes from Communism. Communism was constantly playing catch-up with the rest of the world in terms of products, technology, science, and pretty much anything else because Communism/Socialism sucks and destroys creativity, productivity, and all else that is good including lives.

Third, you have Rus/Slav paranoia, which is raised up into an art form all its own. Yes, they have been attacked many times. Sometimes in response to their actions, as the neighbors get a bit peeved when you invade, rape, and pillage over the centuries with gleeful abandon. Anyway, the various invasions led to the whole concept of controlling the passes to prevent any attacks (or retaliation). It also led to massive paranoia that makes me look like Captain Whatever. That paranoia and equating retaliation with attack really shines at times like this.

All of this is why Russia immediately claimed any accusation they were responsible in any way, shape, or form was a provocation (attack). They are always the victim in their own mind. A “victim” that increasingly only has limited cards to play. Again, we are headed into far more interesting times right now.

While I suspect far too many leaders and so-called elites don’t have a clue about history and culture, others do. Others who have played this incident for all they are worth to expand the war. They are the most dangerous, as they know they are playing with nuclear fire, and don’t care.

So, where are we? Article 4 is off the table for now, though NATO will discuss/is discussing the situation at its scheduled meeting. Vladimir will make hay off the accusations with the internal audience, which is the only one he truly cares about and it may indeed help him with it. Those pushing for a “real” war could sadly make some headway.

My take is: treat any and all reports as unconfirmed to start. Things can move too fast in situations like this for the 48-hour rule, but sit back, listen, and check trusted sources. Do not pour gasoline on any fires. Also, make note of who clickbaits and posts wildly. They, like sources that headline most posts as BREAKING NEWS and such, are not to be trusted.

Before I forget, my title and opening line are a play on a poem in Mad magazine many years (decades, sigh) back. It was an ode to NASA that had me rolling. Not going to post the whole thing, but I still remember and love the lines: “We shot a rocket into space, we fear it fell to Earth someplace. Though we were aiming for the moon, Red China says we hit Kowloon.” The ending was “…and all our space probe expertise, found nothing but enraged Chinese.” And, yes, it does play off the old poem about shooting an arrow into the air. Back in the day, Mad made full use of the classics and was an amazingly fun read.

A Tuesday Omnibus

Between choppy internet access (hopefully new router here soon) and choppy events, I think it best to do a quick omnibus post that covers some highlights. Some of these may get done in more detail here soon.

First, Russia is NOT done in Ukraine even with the losses. The people who are saying that Vladimir has no choice, call it a day, and other hopeful things are making two basic mistakes. One, they fail to get that this is all based on domestic Russian politics; and, that they do politics differently.

Right now, the spin seems to be that the military screwed the pooch and all the problems come from that and not the corruption of the oligarchia. Further, that the political leaders were not aware of all the problems that existed as they weren’t properly informed. Which is saying by strong implication that Vladimir and others were lied to rather than they made mistakes.

If you think the media narratives here are bad, you should see what goes on in Russia. For all that there is still a lot of cynicism at the media left over from Soviet days, the Russian population has been fed a massive amount of propaganda and manipulation for the last 20 years. The populace may be starting to figure out that bad things are happening, but it truly is not yet common knowledge. Add in the new draconian punishments for disrespecting the military and the like, and yes they can keep controlling the narrative for a far longer time than many believe.

Which means we are truly starting to hit critical times. As the political situation becomes more dire because the military situation continues to crumble, the chances go up for things to escalate and or get out of control. Things are going to get more dicey, not better. Hang on, and seriously pray.

Also, do check out Ed at Hot Air in regards the dumbest “question” so far from CNN, along with some good and important questions about our intelligence community. Well worth a read.

I will also offer my sympathies to the family of Ed Lambert, and highly urge you to read Stephen Green’s excellent tribute to the man. Godspeed Ed.

I also have to agree with Stephen on this. I hope Artemis I makes it into space safely, not the least as I know someone who has a payload on it. But, again, it is still mid-70s tech and the last gasp of the old space job distribution system. I don’t see the new SLS (keep in mind, Shuttle was also the first SLS) carrying cargo to orbit.

Finally, I want to get back to working on the book Preparedness Pays and using that for a series of posts here. Since I now have a number of readers who are interested in practical preparedness and more, seems to be the right thing to do. Originally, I was going to use all the “correct” terminology and such to increase the possibility of some outreach (and sales) to official and academic disaster preparedness/emergency management operations.

Thing is, I’ve been a small part of those efforts before. When it comes to local, there are some great people and operations out there. I’m thinking that the book needs to speak to the average person, and not to “the experts” in DC and academia. So, instead of people, infrastructure, and resources, plan to go with people, places, and things.

As I’ve said a time or hundred on here before, there are infinity-minus-2 potential disasters out there. What matters is that there are only three things that can be damaged: people, places, and things. There are only three things that can happen to people: loss of resources, physical harm, and fiscal harm. Places basically have only two options: physical damage and loss of resources. Things boils down to: loss, damage, shortage. Not quite a 3×3 matrix, but you’ve gone from infinity-minus-2 to effectively 3 points each for planning. Simplifies things nicely.

A lot has changed since my article on disaster preparedness appeared in IEEE Spectrum a few decades back. There I looked at about five things, three works much better. Once you quit trying to play guess-the-disaster, that’s when good things start to happen in terms of real practical preparedness.

More soon!

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Also, If the site is slow loading or you’ve had trouble getting through, my apologies. We are experiencing growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog.

Pro Tip On Airpots

If the site is slow loading or you’ve had trouble getting through, my apologies. We are experiencing growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog. Working on it, feel free to hit the tip jar to help me keep going and upgrade the site. Your gifts truly do make the difference. Working on adding a mail-in option, others; if interested in mail-in for now drop me a line.

Edited to add information

That I should have listened to. Back about three years ago, I bought an airpot coffee dispenser. Yeah, I’m one of “those types” who hand grinds each morning, uses a French Press and distilled water, puts in a pinch of smoked salt, and used to time things very precisely. These days, given the short-term memory issues, I’m a lot more flexible even with a timer, and it is fun to explore how flavors change with time.

Anyway, the air pot was looking a bit grody inside (and out thanks to the local water that is a liquid state of limestone) so I decided to clean it. I avoid soap on most things involved with my coffee because the surfactants in modern dish soap can be a pain to deal with. The directions actually say not to use soap inside, but to use some bleach water in it once a month. Three years, one month, whats the difference?

Turns out, I’m going to make a note on the calendar to start doing it once a month. I suspect a lot of it is the plumbing that got cleaned out good and not the lining, but yes there is a difference in taste and looks.

Oh, by the way, while it is something I’ve seen mostly in Navy types, if you really want to make friends and be appreciated by senior NCOs and Navy Chiefs, wash their coffee mugs for them (those not welded onto hands that is). Or even just rinse them good. You will be amazed at the response.

On a more serious note, one of the best ways to clean a regular coffee pot is to do like good restaurants and coffee shops: ice and salt. Lots of both, swirl around, and you will be surprised at how fast it cleans the inside and you don’t have to worry about any soap being left inside. Hard water? Add vinegar to the mix. It is a good thing to run vinegar through a coffee machine in hard water areas if not using distilled water, cleans and disinfects at the same time.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Not Playing

I’ve been trying to avoid politics, at least beyond snarky names for various politicians around the world. I will cheerfully insult Winnie the Xi as fast as I will Resident Biden, Bitch McConnell, and most of the members of the American political class. I’m equal opportunity that way. Free snark and mocking for all.

In the wake of the red hole that was supposed to be a red wave (which Sarah and others, including me on Twitter, told you wasn’t going to happen), there has been the usual finger pointing and a lot of chatter about how to re-arrange the deck chairs on the Titanic. Equally unsurprising is that the never-Trumpers and those who really didn’t like such a man but rode the train anyway types have declared a Trump-DeSantis fight and you must choose your side now!

No, I don’t and I’ve got a suggestion what you can do with it. You focus on this, make it the most important thing, and both conservatism and libertarianism are probably dead for our lifetimes.

This probably won’t do any good, but I’m going to try one more time to get some things across to some of those higher-level types. The theatrics of the big names are going to drown this out, and Trump saying mean things (day ending in Y) and Rod pissing his panties and flouncing to the fainting couch because someone was uncivil and has no breeding and proper manners (again, day ending in Y) get the attention.

Right now, you’ve got far bigger problems. Allow me to suggest that you read this guest post at Sarah’s place. There’s a lot in there with which I agree. I have no faith in the current system, and yes I do think there has been, is, and will be fraud. Incompetence too, but fraud as well– especially given a number of convictions for voter fraud in the last election. As Mr. Kendall pointed out, we begged you to investigate and be pro-active on securing the elections.

But, no, that would be uncivil and rude and worst of all it would have upset a lot of gravy trains that depend on the status quo. If you are interested in why many of us feel that there were things that needed investigation (and prosecution), read this post, then this post, and finally this post from Larry Correia. There is a lot more out there, but that’s a good start.

If you really want freedom, good (and limited) government, here’s a few suggestions:

First, don’t fall for and join in on the new urgent “thing” and declare your undying loyalty to it or whatever part of it is demanded. Not now, not later, as there are going to be many things as distraction.

Second, secure the vote. This really has to be done on the state (and local) level, and if you look at the states where that was done… Outside of those states, I think it may already be too late and I expect to see more Federal electioneering and attempts to force states to insecure the vote. All in the name of saving “our democracy” of course.

Personally I would love to see one day, limited/no mail, go back to absentee with valid reason, ID required, no same-day registration, LET THE MILITARY VOTE AND ACTUALLY COUNT THAT VOTE, and if I could sneak it in no straight party voting allowed. It will take good state-level leadership, with the support on the national leadership. Oh, and don’t forget, same-day vote tally. This third-world weeks-long bullshit has to go.

Third, this leads us to the need to change the leadership. Badly. Look at the many interesting decisions this cycle, some of which were an early effort to get rid of the “wrong-type” of Republicans. If it is true that the RNCC did not send a single lawyer to Arizona, Nevada, or other contested/problem areas, that stinks even worse. The Republican party needs to clean house and bring in fresh leadership. Younger and aggressive too.

Love him or hate him, Trump fought. People, not the fancy blue checks or cocktail circuit types, saw that. As polarizing as he is, he fights. It’s not a bad analogy to suggest to leadership (conservative, Republican, libertarian, other) that emulating Lincoln with Grant in regards Trump and other non-establishment types is a good idea. If they fight, that one person is worth 20 of the cocktail-circuit go-along-get-along types.

No, the never-Trumpers and those of the “If we lay back and spread our legs maybe this time we will win/enjoy it” clique are never going to be happy. They make their best money by being unhappy; and, besides, all the right people at the parties say good things about them when they whine . Ignore them. GET SOLID LEADERSHIP IN PLACE NOW, LEADERSHIP THAT WILL FIGHT FOR A SECURE VOTE.

Fourth, look at two things that were huge in this last election. Look at how many voters, particularly minority, did swing red. Look at WHY they did so, as the issues matter. You made some serious inroads, and while some of the candidates didn’t make it, you’ve got proven leadership who did fight that is now available. Hint. Hint. For once, make use of the abundance of talent that is available to you. Also, if you want to truly make a difference, keep going after schoolboards and other local elections. You can and will accomplish more in the long run if you do so.

Fifth through Eleventh, IF YOU DON’T WORK TO SECURE THE VOTE, NONE OF IT MATTERS AS YOU WILL NEVER WIN AGAIN. You can blame the base or sections of the base (as you are doing right now), third party candidates, or the excuse du jour. It’s a lie and you know it. Quit it.

Finally, in at number twelve, let Trump, DeSantis, and anyone else who wants to fight, fight. It’s called a primary for a reason. If what is going on results in one or more other strong, feisty potential candidates coming out in the process, that’s a win as far as I’m concerned. I’m going to wait and see who makes the best case to earn my vote. Hopefully, someone will. Hopefully, the vote will count.

Thus endeth today’s lesson.

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Veteran’s Day 2022

To all who have served: A good and happy Veteran’s Day to you! If you know a veteran, go nod and smile, wave, thank them, or just wish them a good Veteran’s Day depending on circumstances and their desires. Today is the day to honor the living, while we can. Please do so.

And if anyone knows where Hardy is (far left in the photo), please buy him a glass of goat’s milk for me. Before him I’d never met a troop who would turn down free beer for some goat’s milk, but to each his own.

May it be a good day for each and every one of you who has served.

A Different Take On Russia

I’ve been talking with reader Bill on several topics about Russia, which are actually related. Been promising him an article or two, and it’s time to deliver. While I said it early on, it’s time to revisit what I think is in store for Russia in the near future. Absent some massive political, social, and other changes, Russia is frelled. There are several reasons for this.

First up, as I and others have discussed before, is birthrate. This article in the Moscow Times gives a good overview and is worth the read. It’s even in English so no translation needed. When you factor in ethnicity, the Rus/Slavs are being outbred by pretty much every other ethnic group, often by a significant margin. Still looking for some solid figures, but it appears that in a number of areas the Rus/Slav group is already a shrinking minority.

This is not new in many respects, as Russkiy Mir called for efforts to reverse this trend and to bring home ethnic Rus/Slav that were not currently part of Russia. It’s why the Russians are kidnapping so many Ukrainian children as they are essential to repopulation efforts.

The other key component in trying to halt the demographic slide is to change the abortion culture that gripped (grips?) Russia. While it is changing, abortion was (is?) the primary means of birth control. Given infant and maternal mortality rates, and a lack of basic reliable healthcare, it was the chosen method. In 2000, more than 2 million abortions were performed in Russia, and while numbers have significantly dropped, it is an ongoing cultural battle. See this article and this article for some additional background.

Keep in mind that most of the data/statistics shown are the official statistics of the Russian government, and may or may not accurately reflect reality. I’ve seen some other statistics out there that indicate your average Rus/Slav woman of childbearing years has had multiple abortions (unconfirmed rates of 10-20 in a lifetime), which also has a very negative affect on the ability to have children when marriage and other factors put you in a position to want children. If anyone has a source of accurate statistics on abortion by ethnic group, would love to see them.

To further complicate efforts to halt the population decline Russia has one of the worst, if not the worst, rate of spread and rate of death from AIDS/HIV. How bad is it? So bad the Russian government no longer reports the data (or they had quit the last time I checked). Major mode of spread seems to be drug use, which is also a factor I’m not going to get into too much today. Read this article, this article, and this article for more information. Again, I’ve seen some real interesting numbers, and where it appears there is widening drug (and alcohol) abuse with a corresponding spread of AIDS/HIV is in younger males in the prime years for marriage, family, etc.

Now, you also have to factor in brain drain. While the news has been focused on young men fleeing Russia to avoid getting sent to the Ukraine, brain drain is a long-term problem for Russia that seems to only be growing. It’s not just males either, but females as well. Kamil Galeev has written about this before and I commend his works on the subject to you. He’s someone I respect, and respect the thought processes, even if/when I disagree with him. Great insights on Russia, and he is a good example of the brain drain they face. Again, based on what data I can find, this is an ongoing and accelerating problem.

Russia is a resource rich country, make no mistake. It literally, however, can’t tap it’s own resources to any degree right now. Rus/Slav paranoia about foreign partnerships (and there are companies around the world who would love to to be a part of such efforts since even a small percentage of such is going to be huge) along with remnants of Soviet/Communist inferiority complex are a large part of the problem. The other problem is that developing the people-resources needed means they need smart, clever, and ambitious people who can think outside the box. Most of which are leaving Russia for better opportunities and circumstances. Under the oligarchia and current culture, there is very little for them in Russia.

In addition to a vast amount of resources, Russia also had its reputation as a top-tier military power and as a nuclear power. Yes, I said had and mean it.

I’m having one of those mornings today, so I can’t remember if it was the Institute for the Study of War (ISW on Twitter), Dmitri, or Kamil Galeev who stated in the last few days that internal Russian politics will cope with problems with the military while military defeats will result in domestic political change. I agree with the basic assessment.

For all that Russians take pride in a mighty military, being a member of the military itself has fallen out of favor. Military members are seen, effectively, as dumb, morally cripple, and about anything else a leftist has said here about our own military. Have heard that the Russian military members are a bit of a handful for local law enforcement, and may be far more involved in drug dealing, theft, and other delights than in what might be regarded as normal shenanigans for a basic troop.

For all that troops are increasingly regarded as scum by what appears to be a growing part of the population, Russians do take pride in having a mighty military that will protect them from the evil West, Nazis, and others. That can meet any challenge, defeat any enemy, and do so quickly. After all, they’ve been promised by Putin and others that the military is a priority, has the best equipment, is well trained, etc.

By opening the military to the oligarchia for looting, it is increasingly clear that the Russian military is a shell of its former self. Word is that we and others have been able to buy equipment and advanced systems to study because troops (and their families) were literally starving. The missing radios from the Russian doomsday plane should have been a bigger clue to all than it apparently was. I certainly had no idea of the extent to which the corruption had disrupted everything from uniforms to specialized gear. Cheap imported tires are the least of the problems the Russian military faces.

Right now, there are serious questions about how much of the warstock they have can even be used. Tanks and rifles are rusted to the point of being inoperative and non-repairable. Specialized gear? Look at how many years overdue the SATAN-II missile is right now, and one gets an idea of why it and other systems are being questioned. Soviet era supplies, especially on things like MOPP gear, are toast at this point.

On paper, they still have a huge military with lots of gear. I have one question on that, which is if the 20 percent ghost trooping we appeared to see early on isn’t a much higher percentage. When millions of uniforms don’t exist because of corruption, how many of the troops are really there? How many of their aircraft are truly fully serviceable?

Which is why things are about to get even more interesting for Russia. Armenia and Azerbaijan are not the only potential flash point on the Russian flanks (and within treaty). There are any number of areas that are potentially restive towards rule by Moscow, and if you think China hasn’t considered absorbing some of those resource-rich areas next to their border you are delusional. And if you think the Middle Kingdom is happy with Vladimir buying or trying to buy stocks of ammo from North Korea, I’ve got a bridge for you. North Korea has long been an area of contention between the two powers. Also, Winnie the Poo is not likely to be happy in regards Iran for that matter. China has long been expanding its influence there, using carefully metered nuclear help among other things. Now, Tehran is openly asking for advanced nuclear weapon development help as part of the deal for drones (which have far too many Western, including US, parts in them).

On top of that, you now have Japan pushing (hard by diplomatic standards) in regards the Kuril Islands. Japan has never accepted their loss, and for years has pushed on a purely diplomatic level simply because that was the only option open to them. Between the size and perceived quality of the Russian military, and it being a nuclear power, they were not stupid and so made no military move. Now, even as people start to openly debate if Russia qualifies as either a second or third tier military, who knows? I don’t expect to see Japan do something militarily aggressive but what else might they do?

Russia, as we know it, is on course to implode. Between population shrinkage, and the rapid shrinking of the ethnic Rus/Slav people, and brain drain, the current system has no chance of long-term survival. Add in everything else, and the odds go up rather dramatically on the system coming apart in the next ten to twenty years. Now, factor in military defeat in Ukraine and the impact that is going to have on populations and politics, and it means the next few years might be more interesting than any of us would like. Especially given that Russia is an unstable nuclear power to an extent that makes the old Soviet Union breaking apart seem stable by comparison.

As I pointed out yesterday, the invasion and all that is going on in Russia is based on domestic Russian politics. What I’ve outlined above are some of the factors driving those domestic politics. Dealing with the international and other issues depends on leaders outside of Russia not only understanding the domestic Russian political situation but also the cultural factors playing into it and into popular opinion within Russia. For that we have Dementia Joe and the incompetent Regency; Macron the Macaroon; the Germans; the British (who hopefully still have a decent MoD and aren’t going to replace the PM every week); and, Xi the unstable. Oh, and keep in mind that Great Leader, Khamenei (who is facing open rebellion), and a few others are fishing around in these troubled waters too. At a time where the world truly needs stable, intelligent, and competent leadership, this is what we have.

Russia is not the only country that may be frelled.

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Russia Update 9 Nov

There really isn’t a lot new to update. The only change from the previous is that there are more signs that Vladimir is facing some serious opposition, but nothing (yet) that could take him out of power. The jousting for position continues, and it is hard to tell what is simply securing the best position possible versus trying to get in position to make changes.

Remember, if it doesn’t happen in Moscow, it doesn’t mean a thing. There is the St. Petersburg caveat, but…

The one thing that has come up is a reminder from Kamil Galeev that the invasion of Ukraine and all that is going on has little to do with international relations from Russia’s point of view. The invasion stems from domestic politics, not international. It’s very true, and is something to keep in mind in the days ahead as international takes are going to have to deal with domestic realities when dealing with Vladimir and Russia.

If the military situation shifts in the occupied territories, then I expect to see some more open shifts within Russian domestic politics. Absent that, I expect to see things continue to bubble away under the surface as no one yet wants to make a true public move.

I will note that Vladimir and company have continued to go low-key on the nuclear rhetoric. Not sure if this is because of internal pressures, external pressures, or that secret talks are giving him what he wants. I reiterate that giving in to nuclear blackmail will have worse long-term consequences.

Meantime, if you want a fun little read, this article on Moscow shelters is actually quite enjoyable. Don’t laugh at the fact that one former shelter is now a tourist attraction, as we’ve done the same with at least one of ours. My thanks to Robert Hopkins on Twitter for the link.

Oh, yes, no sign of shelters being stocked outside of Moscow, which seems mostly for show. Same as before. Also, yes, Stalin had the subways put deep for a reason. He also had portions made truly beautiful and while they are no longer good shelter, at least the last time I was there they were still quite beautiful.

Frankly, since our national leadership is not going to step up to the task, I wish more state and local leaders would take steps to bring their shelters back online or build new ones. The threat of nuclear issues (war, deliberate meltdown, etc.) is but one of the reasons having those shelters available is a good idea. They can be useful in a variety of non-nuclear situations as well. Having them available also serves as a deterrent to those thinking nuclear war, terrorism, etc.

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