Okay, I promised the other day to talk a bit about the threat/non-threat of Russia. My problem with a lot of the talk going on right now, particularly in both media and pundit/influencer talk has to do with an imprecision of language.
Far too many are simply saying that Russia is not a future threat to Eastern or Western Europe (or anyone else) without specifying what they mean. I want to posit some food for thought in response.
From the start of the invasion, I’ve held an awkward position. I’ve wanted Russia stopped, but have also held firm to the idea that we did not want and should not want escalation. Which is a bit of a contradiction, at least on the surface for those approaching this with a Western viewpoint.
Also as pointed out over a number of years, the roots to this go back literally more than a thousand years. The work of Kamil Galeev that I have linked to in many posts explore the historical, philosophical, and memetic sources of this. Fact is, no, Russians do not think like us, do not analyze within the same conceptual framework, and do not respond with the same cultural mores and patterns. They are a different culture, with a different history, and different mores and cultural norms. To expect them to respond as we would is the height of stupidity, and far too many Western (U.S. cough) politicians and bureaucrats are extremely stupid in this respect.
They, and far too many others who should (and do) know better dismiss Russkiy Mir as of no importance. Trust me, it is of great importance and it is taken seriously. Keep in mind that in some respects, Navalny was even more nationalistic and serious supporter of Russkiy Mir than Vladimir. Russia World is a real concept within Russian leadership and they did not spend months/years and money on developing it on a whim. It is a real and very large factor in all they do. To understand it is to understand much of their long-term plans and thinking.
In that regard, Russia is an ongoing threat to the world. Not just the Baltic. Not just Eastern Europe. The World.
It is why my stance on Ukraine was awkward to some. I tried to hammer home the point that Russia must be stopped, and the threat negated; but, we should not escalate to a full-scale war. I pointed out many times that if the usual politics and peace-at-any-price took place and Russian plans/ambitions not addressed, the next time (and there will be a next time) would be far worse. The fact that we now know the Biden Regency was up to their necks in a proxy war that they helped provoke while pretending otherwise really doesn’t change that fact.
Which is why I am watching the Trump efforts at peace rather carefully. If long-term plans and ambitions are not short circuited, any peace won’t last. I will note that short-circuited does not necessarily mean a confrontation over them with threats and prohibitions. It can and should mean finding ways to indirectly negate such. Trump has been a master at this in other areas, so I am semi-hopeful in this case. We must wait and see.
I still say we squandered some amazing opportunities to change the relationship with Russia back during the Clinton years, simply because no one of any status within that admin truly understood the Russians or even tried to understand them. The Obama administration simply continued that forward, and frankly W and his people were not much better.
So, unless Russkiy Mir is acknowledged and dealt with, yes, Russia will be a threat going forward.
Now, where they are not a threat currently is militarily. The great stockpiles are a rusting joke and Russia has had to turn to others to supply them with ammunition, drones, and more. The Russian Army is not a first world Army and while our own forces are not what they should be (and many European militaries are a joke), I don’t see Russia currently as being a credible threat to Europe in a conventional sense. Again, see previous discussion on this topic.
In terms of nuclear threat, I remain in the camp of twenty percent. If twenty percent of the nuclear systems of either side work, I would be surprised. Don’t want to find out for sure, but…
Now, if given a chance to clean things up, rearm, train, etc. that can change. It can, in fact, change rather rapidly (look at what Pete is doing here). It can also change because far too many Western companies are supplying Russia with chips, machines, and more to do just that — and have been since the war started. Again, we’ve discussed this before in past posts.
So, short-term military threat: no. Long-term threat: yes. Is Vladimir/Russia going to play nice now given alternatives and ambitions: no. Is anyone expecting Vladimir/Russia to roll over and play nice just because stupid: yes.
Trump is used to working out deals that leave people satisfied. That allow them to build and grow. He’s used that fairly well in various efforts and treaties. If anyone can find a way to get the parties to a table, and deal not just with the short-term, but the long-term issues (including cultural differences) as well, it’s him. It won’t be easy, but I’m going to wait and see what happens.
Meantime, keep in mind what I’ve said above as you read the pundits, influences, and grifters. Also keep in mind that some of the imprecision of language is deliberate on their part. Understand the reality of threat/non-threat and what is going on right now. Ware those who make their money off the current situation, and pay attention to what is not being discussed. Noting the latter will oft tell you far more than what is being said. Just a thought to share.
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