Kamchatka

I noted somewhere the other day that the Ring of Fire was getting sparky, but wasn’t expecting an 8.8 off Kamchatka. Fact is, there are many small earthquakes every day, some in areas that people don’t think get earthquakes. Most are either deep enough or small enough that only seismologists notice them. Some faults, like the New Madrid, only seem to have a major event every few hundred years. Others, well, go off quite frequently, at least in geological terms.

When talking preparedness, I don’t focus on the almost infinite number of things that can happen, but in the types of damage they can do. Other than following earthquake building codes and suggestions when building structures, there’s not a lot you can do. I will note that some of the same things that help houses and other structures deal with high winds and tornadoes can help with mitigating structural damage from an earthquake, as they help a bit with flexibility and holding things together against unusual stresses.

My understanding is that you need a combination of flexibility and stability to avoid major structural damage. Of course, in some cases, there is not a lot you can do. Soil geology at the surface plays a large roll on how the seismic waves “act” on things. In the New Madrid quake some areas had the soil essentially “liquify” resulting in things in the ground shooting up (such as caskets) and things on the surface (like houses and other structures, going down almost without a trace.

Unlike weather phenomena, earthquake prediction is far more art than science. It’s being worked on, but we’re not there yet. So, it’s going to hit with little or no warning — which means your preparations have to be on reaction rather than being pro-active. It’s a different bit of planning, and if near the coast you should have a bug-out plan not only made but ready to go on zero notice for tsunami events, and elsewhere the same given that widespread fires can break out, dams fail, etc. Figure routes are likely to be clogged, and plan accordingly.

One of the more novel, and potentially very effective for the actual quake itself, was the tethered hot air balloon Daryl Dragon (the Captain of Captain and Tennille) allegedly had behind their house. If things were bad, launch and wait for things to settle down before coming down. Not sure if it was true or not, but seem to recall he talked about it in an interview or two. Fact is, if you could go up (or were up) when it hits, and stay up a while, it would allow you to miss the worst of things. At least initially.

On a more serious note, I am going to be interested to see what comes out in regards Petropavlovsk in the next few days. Between the earthquake and tsunami waves, it will be interesting to see what can be seen in regards the Russian Pacific Fleet, other bases, and the nuclear storage facilities. In particular, you do have to wonder how the subs tied up alongside — especially the boomers — fared. So far, not hearing of much damage but it’s well worth keeping an eye on.

Finally, in terms of preparedness, earthquakes are one of the reason to keep digging and demolition tools handy. There are a number of things that could leave one’s safe space covered in debris. Always be prepared to dig out, pry things up and over, or if possible jack or brace things so they don’t come down any further. Shovels, axes, pry bars, saws, jacks, rope, etc. are good to have around anytime, but may be even more appreciated after a quake.

Keep in mind that the Midwest really isn’t that well prepared for the New Madrid to pop off again. Building codes most places really don’t include earthquakes, and other mitigation actions aren’t there. The last time the New Madrid really kicked off, it was felt as far east as New York, a massive lake was formed in Tennessee, and portions of the Mississippi ran backwards for a time as plates were forced up. I may have to look for something I wrote about this years ago, as the area has built up so much now that a major event will devastate a good part of the center of the country.

Nor are the San Andreas and the New Madrid all we have to worry about. So, don’t think that because you are not in California you have nothing to worry about from a quake or quakes. As always, preparedness pays.

As always, keep your family and friends close, and your things where you can find them in the dark — even if the earth is moving (and not from a happy thing).

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Quick Thoughts 24 July 25

Man, came home from PT to hear that Chuck Mangione and Hulk Hogan have passed. I played trumpet in high school, and loved what Chuck could do with a flugle horn. Hulk Hogan kept me entertained over the years. Godspeed to them both.

Unlike most on social media, I’m not a (sudden) expert on what is going on with Cambodia and Thailand. I didn’t realize things were that tense between them, and the outbreaks of fighting have caught me off guard. Not rushing into things, as I do have some biases from things that happened decades ago. Right now, just praying for peace.

The death of Irina Podnosova, head of the Russian Supreme Court has raised an eyebrow. Not the death itself, as it appears she died of cancer; rather, it has hit at an interesting time for Vladimir. She was his classmate in law school, and he hand picked her for the position. Given all that is going on, from international sanctions to internal threats, it creates a void where he counted on a solid bulwark.

I have to agree with CDR Salamander (again), that those who are trying to extrapolate future warfare from the limited and somewhat isolated specifics of Russia-Ukraine have gotten the future of air power wrong, as shown by what happened in Iran. Allow me to tap my sign again: drones are important but the driver is data and the C&C it allows. You want to win the next real war, figure out the next step beyond drones that is allowed by data. I’m starting to get some ideas, and will just note that he who controls the data controls the field.

If you missed it, Ukraine did a major attack on Russian logistics and production on the night of the 23rd. Logistics have been the weak link for Russia from the very beginning, and hitting the various parts hard is going to further complicate offensive efforts. Hitting refineries and manufacturing centers is also going to make life difficult for Russia. Russia has been frantic to obtain (and is obtaining) US and European manufacturing systems and components despite sanctions and such (we’ve talked about this before here, and the companies quite willing to flout the laws to make the sales). Add in severe manpower shortages in both logistics and manufacturing, and this will have some serious long-term effects. It may not do much short-term, but it will have an impact. More so than Russia’s countervalue attacks on civilian population centers.

Glad to see some in England standing up to the state on matters of immigration and crime. I don’t think it’s going to do much good, but it shows there is some English blood left in the system. The problem is the same for them as for Germany, Spain, and other European countries. In a fairly short time, they will be outbred and/or overrun via continuing immigration legal and illegal (pushed by the EU). I think Eastern Europe has a shot at avoiding it; France may avoid it if the people deal with it as Macaroon et cie are not going to do anything; and Italy has a shot as long as Meloni and company remain in power. With the people largely disarmed, and the ballot box a joke in most of the EU, I’m not optimistic. Maybe more on this next week. Esp. since I think we may see unpleasantness here soon.

What is coming out about “Russian Collusion” is probably going to end up the largest political scandal in American history. It really is already, and if corporate media is forced into covering it, I think it will blow the doors off Watergate and any other scandal you care to name. Add in that Obama II/The Biden Regency just outdid the Teapot Dome scandal by selling off the strategic helium reserve on top of emptying the strategic petroleum reserve, and I’m not willing to bet there was a way to cripple the U.S. they missed. While we have a chance to recover, and to restore the Constitutional Republic, I don’t think it’s going to be easy or fun. In fact, I see a lot of ways things could go sideways and/or south. Again, more on that soon.

Don’t take your eyes off the work being done by DataRepublican and Mike Benz. The NGO nest of incestuous snakes may yet strangle us; but, they continue to unravel and shine lights. Lot of distractions being pulled to take eyes of this and other important points. Like all the winning being done by the Trump administration. They keep looking for wedges, as that and delaying actions are all they have been able to bring into play to stop reforms. To borrow a bit from Sarah Hoyt, be ye not afraid and don’t miss that Trump has gotten more accomplished in his first six months than he did in his first full term. Long ways to go, but we are off to a start.

Oh, before I forget, yes, rogue judges are a problem and Roberts isn’t about to smack them down as he should. Yet, they are laying the seeds of their own destruction as the challenges are establishing law and precedent. By the time this is over, they will have killed the current two (or more) tier system and more of Article III than I care for. Our system of government as well as our civilization is built on the rule of law and the trust and respect that it requires. These judges have killed trust, eroded respect, and pretty much tossed the rule of law. I hope things get dealt with before it goes too much further, for after a point there is no turning back and no one with a functioning brain or morals wants to see the spitting on of hands and the hoisting of the black flag on a large scale.

I will note that corporate media is continuing to commit slow-motion suicide. The more they lie, from not covering what is coming out on the fake Russian collusion scandal to biased coverage of Israel/Gaza, the more trust erodes and the more viewers turn out. Never was a fan of Colbert, but the more they push an agenda instead of simply entertaining, the more revenues and viewership continue to drop. Find good sources, follow them, and support them. Remember, the more you do that, the more the wicked witch of corporate media turns into a puddle while screaming “I’m melting, I’m melting!”

If you can, please consider hitting the tip jar. PT has revealed some interesting things, including weakness and related problems on my right side. First up is a Bosu Ball to work on balance, then I’m going to have to do some serious strengthening work to get things back and balanced. Bosu Balls I have discovered are expensive; and, I may have to join a gym to work on some of the weakness issues. I may have to do a post on what the therapist and I got into today, as we plotted where I got hit, path, and problems. As Spock would say, “Fascinating” as we were even going over centers of the brain and why certain things have been going on.

More soon, including a review of some alcoholic products kindly shipped to me (thank you!). Meantime, count your blessings and be not afraid. Just remember: be prepared, keep your friends and family close, and keep your things where you can find them in the dark.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Random Quick Thoughts

No detailed post today, but I will share some thoughts and musings about some of the things I’m seeing in the world. Or, possibly out of it as well.

First up, I’m to a point where I believe several non-contradictory things about the Epstein saga. My post here I think may still have some validity; but, I would also note a few other things. The Swamp is not going to go without a fight, and I am amazed any evidence survived once the election was lost. That said, I would not be surprised if that “evidence” was as corrupt and tainted. I also believe that this has not been handled well, which is why Dems are using it as a wedge issue to try and slow the administration down. It’s pretty much all they have, and it was handed to them on a silver platter. While I want to see justice for Epstein’s victims, I also don’t think it is likely at this point and I want things done right. It is important.

Second, I both do and don’t get those upset with the administration. No, everything hasn’t magically been done or accomplished. That said, look at Trump 1 and then compare how much has been done in the first six months of Trump 2. It’s orders of magnitude more, and right now the left knows it’s been hit by a train but the plans to thwart the administration have not worked out. As noted above, Epstein uproar is the first wedge issue they’ve had and they are using it like mad. In fact, they are overplaying their hand — badly even. I hope they do keep going with it, as it will bite them hard in the rump and soon. Meantime, go read this excellent post by Sarah A. Hoyt and have patience. Let’s take the time to do things right, so that we don’t get into a tit for tat situation that blows up in our faces. A lot is being done to save our Republic, but I still see too many ways it can fail and do so in a way that takes us down some very bad roads. Roads no sane person wants to tread, and especially doesn’t want friends and family to have to tread.

In regards the Middle East, Iran is reverting to form and threatening Trump’s life and more. He, and Israel, showed great restraint in the 12-Day War. Iran should not count on the same if there is a Round Two. Other countries are not happy with them as well, and the huge arms shipment they tried to get to the Houthis got intercepted. Since our corporate media isn’t covering it, you might note the number of “gas explosions” in Tehran of late as well as the fact that many of them seem to be at the homes of IRGC and political leadership. Pity about that…

As for Israel bombing Syria, I would simply note that Israel has warned for weeks to not go after the Druze and other minorities. That was ignored and an effort to start the rape, torture, and murder of those under Israeli protection begun. Israel shut down that not-so-little bit of planned genocide (and yes, that’s what was planned) rather quickly. Good on them.

No comment yet on the Christian church in Gaza that was damaged. Heard this morning that the Roman Catholic and Greek Orthodox patriarchs for Jerusalem have gone in to visit, assess, and do what they can. Not a lot of trustworthy data yet, so biding my time. Over on X, Bree A. Dail has been doing some good and thoughtful coverage that is worth checking out. Just keep in mind that the “Gazan Government” is Hamass and the UN is in bed with Hamass as well. As sources, they are about as reliable as CNN and the NYT. In otherwords, don’t trust, just verify.

Moving further north, David Strom has a good post up on where things stand in regards Russia. At least in terms of the current administration. I see signs of a lot going on behind the curtain, as the recent death of the Transportation Minister seems to have woken some people up. It may have caused a few moments of clarity, if you will, from some of the maneuvering underway. Keep in mind, however, that the Russian leadership and elites live not just in a bubble, but in bubbles in silos inside a larger bubble.

I think it was on X that I pointed out that Vladimir needs one heck of an off ramp in regards Ukraine. He put it all on the line when he rolled the dice, as this was intended to be the grand introduction of the true implementation of Russkiy Mir — and make him man of the decade and guarantee he was the grand poohbah for life. Instead, he’s ended up peeing into a LOT of people’s corn flakes, at home and abroad, and doing so to Trump was not a smart move. I agree with David that it seems some up at the top are getting this; but, their options are limited. I’m honestly wondering if we might soon hear of medical crisis, accident, or such in regards Vladimir. If not, bet we will hear about some top-level people having “accidents.” Things are getting very interesting in Moscow.

On to larger matters, yesterday Coffee and Covid (a site I’m starting to try to read regularly) re-ran an older post with some updates. If you think it’s been wetter than normal of late, and noted a few other odd things, it may well be climate change. Just not man-made climate change. Unless you think Hunga Tonga is alive and human, which would preclude it from being an image from Revelations. A good case is presented; and, the data appears to hold together. Check it out and sound off on what you think about it. Hat tip and thanks to fellow lightning-strike survivor Snarkalorian for introducing me to C&C a while back, and pointing out this particular piece.

More soon I hope. And, I may update this post later if I find the other item I bookmarked (or thought I had bookmarked). Be safe, be good, be prepared. Keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

About The Epstein Files

If you are surprised at what has happened in regards Epstein and the “files,” I’ve got a bridge for sale and a few thoughts to share. Others have said some of them, but I’m also trying to put things together to help others work through and make their own decisions.

First up, yes, I do think he was an IC asset. I’ve already seen several pointing out (in suspiciously similar terms) that there is no proof he worked for the CIA or (insert agency here). That he had a number of ties to the CIA and others in the IC (and governments here and abroad, etc.) is well known and documented. Got news for you, quite a few assets are not employees of the CIA or any other intelligence agency. They are called assets for a reason.

Second, the IC does make use of some rather interesting and dubious characters. Fact is, people who ware willing to share information (and more) for money, and are members in terrorist organizations, organized crime, or other such interesting things are rarely the type person you bring home to meet mother or meet in church. This was what drove the feckless peanut Jimmah to do lasting damage to our intelligence capabilities by gutting and hamstringing human intelligence (HUMINT). I’ve complained about him before, and I once again point out that we will be generations fixing the damage that man did to us there and around the globe.

That said, there is a bit of a pecking order to assets. You do get, on occasion, the principled person who does something out of conviction and profound belief. Those usually defect, sooner or later. The rest, well, it varies and you will find cold-blooded killers given more respect than human traffickers and perverts. The latter, if various tales be true, often used to get burned if not outright eliminated when convenient. But even there, there is a pecking order. Those who go after small children, infants even, are the lowest of the low. Those who go after teenagers and young adults, well, these days they are almost considered respectable in some quarters. After all, it is a much more widely shared — and indulged — thing even among the so-called elite.

Nor is such limited to overseas. For all that there is a stereotype of British aristocracy liking young boys (and it is a stereotype for a reason), girls and boys are well liked by far too many in power it seems. Again, stereotypes exist for a reason. File that for a moment.

Now, keep in mind that Epstein was noted for not only being well connected to important and powerful people (cough Clinton Gates ad nauseum cough) but also to those in middle and lower positions of power. I hate to give him any credit, but he did favors for a lot of people lower in the chain simply because they might be in a position to help him out later. Always a good idea to have people at all levels owing you favors — and/or having leverage to force a favor. Epstein I think knew that well, far better than many of the powerful he hung with.

Now, is there anyone who thinks that didn’t extend to law enforcement, including both the DOJ and the FBI? If so, look at how one investigation got derailed simply by his being declared a needed intelligence asset. The implications made about him and his relationship to the IC are most interesting and telling.

When things finally did hit a point he was arrested this last time, I would argue he clearly thought he would skate again. When that appeared murky, that he or the evidence might implicate others, well, pity about what happened.

Thing is, with that and with the incoming administration pledging to get to the bottom of things and name names, do you think that those in the IC, DOJ, and FBI (to name just three areas) were going to just sit around fat and happy? Or, do you think that as much evidence as possible got destroyed? Or otherwise rendered inaccessible and/or legally unusable? Also consider that the high and powerful are going to take steps to protect themselves by whatever means they can, and that some of them are in very strong positions of power. Also remember that power, and well as perversion, know few political or other boundaries.

Now, go watch the video of Trump jumping in when Bondi was asked about Epstein. Personally, I think he was frightened and wanting to do two things: give Bondi an out and de-ligitimize any and all inquiries about Epstein. What could scare Trump that badly? It’s not him he’s scared for. Watch his and others body language.

Then, watch Bondi. She pulls the trick taught in dealing with media 101 and does it well. She responds first not to what she was asked, but to the questions she wanted to answer. Note that no one has called for the release of the child porn allegedly made or collected by Epstein or others. No one has called for private information on known or unknown victims to be released. Her answers were a distraction and an attempt to put all answers under the umbrella of privacy. Huge red flag. When she does get around to the actual questions asked, note the precision and limits of her answers. Look at her body language throughout. That was not a happy woman, and she does not like the position she is in.

I’m left with a very strong suspicion that more than one powerful person let it be known what would happen if their name got mentioned in any way, shape, or form in connection to Epstein. I suspect one or more of them are very important to current efforts, and/or could do significant damage to the country (and other countries even) if they so chose. Whomever, whatever, we are not talking a minor scandal or even something Profumo-level. It would be something even larger, with the ability to bring down one or more governments.

If we ever know what was going on, I suspect it will be many, many years from now. I know I’m sure not going to go digging, as I have no desire to dig my own grave. For all that I hate seeing the monsters win again, there are times and places to pick battles. Seeing Trump’s reaction confirms my thought that this is not the time for such. It may yet come, and I hope it does. I really did want to see justice done for Epstein’s victims, for all the victims of the monsters. But I’m also sort of used to it at this point. Never have liked it. All one can do is pray for justice one day, even knowing it won’t happen this day. Mayhaps there truly is a rogue version of the Army of Northern Virginia out there; and, if so, may they have good hunting.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

About The Deja Poo

The “poo” in question is Elon Musk’s quivering pile of lab grown meat substitute of a third party. Deja Poo is a term I haven’t heard (or used) in a while, that is the title to a wonderful post by Sarah A. Hoyt. It is an apt term, as if you are a student of history you know that both the term is valid, and what has happened with the half-baked idea of third parties being born like a cut-rate Venus on a quarter shell by egotistical deep pockets. If you get the idea I’m not a fan of what is being done, you are correct. For all that I like the idea itself — along with creative things to do with the swamp in DC — the execution is key and the execution is classic history. And for those not getting it, not in a good way.

However, I’m lazy — intellectually and otherwise — and rather than go into all the reasons the execution and timing are designed to destroy all the good that has been done, I’m going to point you to some well thought out pieces that make the points I planned to make, possibly far better than I could.

First up, Deja Poo. This take from Sarah is well done, thorough, and has lots of good food for thought. We have indeed seen this same poo before, and it has given us the walking excrement that was Woodrow Wilson (and the growth of the supreme bureaucracy), not to mention the little cascade of horror started by Ross Perot. Her take is well worth the time to read.

Next up, Kim nails it. Elon has an ego, it is bruised, and the analogy to Christmas is spot on. Will Elon ever admit it? Probably not and it will push him to foolishness. Won’t be the first time. Thing that worries me is that Kim is also right on the money about Elon switching to letting perfect be the enemy of good. Innovation and improvements come from letting good be the enemy of perfect (SpaceX being a prime example as we’ve discussed here before). If this becomes his driver, short his companies as they will stall. Yes, he’s got good people who can and will take over if something happens to Elon, who are still committed to good being the enemy of perfect. But, he is a charismatic leader and his zealotry will end up taking the controls absent an investor revolt. I hope he wakes up and smells the coffee, as the world needs him taking us to the stars, not to wallow in the swamp.

Next up is Glenn Reynolds, the Instapundit. You can see his op-ed in the Post here, and a nice video here. Love the intro, agree with it even, and even more like the points Glenn makes. It’s well written, and done in a way that if Elon does read it, it might not get his back further up (it’s already up from not getting all he wanted via DOGE and his work in the admin). He would be wise to listen and think on what is said, though I think he’s well past the point of being able to do so.

For all our sakes, I hope Elon can swallow his pride and ego, and step back from an action that will end (for now) his dream of taking Man to the stars, and our dreams of freedom and restoring the Republic. I don’t think he can, but I can hope to be wrong, and that people will not enable him if he does carry through. As Kim points out, we really don’t need another party (and if you haven’t seen mechaGr*ock’s take on Elon’s third party, do check it out) as we already have a movement.

You want change? It’ doesn’t need a party. It needs a movement to primary those who deserve it, recruit good candidates AT ALL LEVELS, and push to register and get the vote out. The movement is there, make use of it. The movement is working to primary candidates, get behind that. The movement is getting good candidates into races, support that. The movement (Pressler anyone?) is already working the registration and enthusiasm. Support it. That is how you make change, and wins for all humanity. Another ego party is not the answer.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

About The Texas Floods

UPDATE BELOW

What happened in the Texas hill country is horrible; and, the response to it by far too many is beyond horrendous. This weekend saw people throw down their masks and throw away any pretense at humanity and basic decency as politics trumps all.

One of the many lies promoted (suspect the social media version of JournOlist was running hot and heavy) was that no warnings were given because of DOGE cuts, short staffing, etc. All were lies as any cuts don’t take place until the FY, the NWS had extra staff on hand per SOP, and warnings were given in a timely manner. Not once, but no less than three times.

But, there does lie part of the rub. Texas was indeed right to criticize the NWS, as Todd Starnes pointed out on X. Back after Katrina, the NWS was (rightfully) criticized for not updating warnings and giving accurate warnings. The bureaucratic mind being what it is, the decision was made to treat every storm as the storm of the century and warn accordingly such that they could never be criticized again for not issuing strong enough warnings. Besides, that is easier, and easier to justify, that in having people show mature judgment and professionalism and update warnings if and as warranted. No thought, no muss, and it totally screws disaster preparedness planning and actions right in the keester.

If every storm or cloud is the storm of the century, none are. People tune out. I’ve cut off my alerts because of how often they go off for no real reason. It used to be the alerts meant something, and you got useful information from them. Now, you get the equivalent of the reams of useless paper that come with a one paragraph note from Medicare or any other government program. The alerts were meant to be short, effective, and only when needed. The perceived need to protect bureaucratic butt eliminated that utility.

As for the lack of preparedness and other issues in the area (dams needing maintenance, etc., that can wait. What matters now is trying to find those still alive; recovering the dead; and dealing with all the damage and things that come out of such a horror. As you pray for those missing and lost, say a prayer for the first responders who are dealing with a horror most can’t truly begin to imagine. And I guarantee you that they will wonder if they had been faster, better, etc., that some others might have lived. Probably not, but it is something they will be dealing with now and in the days ahead. Pray for them, and pray they get the help and support they need.

One thing to keep in mind is that in a flash flood, it’s not the water that’s the real enemy: it’s what’s in it and under it. Some do drown, but many die because of crush injuries caused by hitting debris under and in the water. Flailed chests are common from hitting trees, logs, vehicles or being caught between logs and trees while being swept away. Broken legs from hitting submerged vehicles and other objects are also common, and they remove the ability to swim (or even float). Those injured who survive the initial damage have a short window of survival. Pray they are found quickly, and can be gotten out of wherever they are.

If you live in an area prone to flash floods, your only realistic preparation is to be ready to evacuate on a moment’s notice. That, however, requires you to get real information concisely, accurately, and in a timely manner. The current warnings of the NWS are about anything but that. The system needs reform, and I hope that if nothing else comes of this tragedy that such does happen.

May God’s mercy be on those in Texas, and in the new flooding in Western NC. Pray for them, and let the basic humanity that seems all to scarce these days shine forth, now and in the days ahead.

UPDATE I: Sarah A. Hoyt, as usual, makes some good points in her post here. It does no good to send signals if they are not going to be received.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

About The Russian Transportation Minister…

UPDATE BELOW

I’ve been out and about since early this morning, as I had an appointment on the north side of town that involved busses that only run every hour, and so not up on what is going on in the world. Had a friend ping me to ask me about ‘that Russian general that Putin fired, does anyone think it really was suicide?’ Told them that didn’t narrow it down any.

Turns out they were talking about (former) Transportation minister Starovoit, who allegedly was in meeting(s) Sunday, fired by Vladimir today, and may have been dead since Friday or Saturday. Allegedly found dead in his car, but may have been found a short distance away in some brush/trees/shrubs. You pays your money, you get to pick your story.

It may well have been a legitimate suicide. He was in the hot seat over trucks being used to bring in drones/drone swarms from Ukraine, and was being investigated in regards siphoning off defense funds for personal use when governor of Kursk, etc., etc., etc. But, given all it may well have been not his idea or that it was that or his family. Again, you pays your money and you pick your story. Any of those is likely given all, and GRU 29155 may not have even had to come knocking. I rather doubt we may ever know for sure which it was.

What is of interest is that this was a truly senior level person in the government. That’s a first, or at least the first in quite a while. It means things are getting serious in Moscow, and I suspect that he will not be the last as things continue to shake out. With China dropping any pretense of neutrality in the Russia/Ukraine conflict (note they want it to continue as it keeps us from focusing on them), and Russia not able to close the deal on their own (so to speak), things could get interesting indeed.

UPDATE I: The always-thoughtful Austin Bay has some thoughts about Russia as the “sick man” of Europe, or Eurasia (again, pays your money picks your version). A lot of very good food for thought that I wish Vladimir and a number of others within the brick walls would read and consider. And if you don’t have China going after Siberia and other territories on your bingo card, you should. I called that one how many years ago now?

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

The Real No Kings Day

Consider this the introduction to the Great Experiment that is the Constitutional Republic that is the United States of America:

In Congress, July 4, 1776

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.–Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

Now The Real Danger Begins

The 12-Day-War as it is rapidly becoming known was a masterpiece on the part of Israel. Israel not only quickly owned the skies above Iran, but they put special forces on the ground to join assets already in place to do extensive damage to the regime. Even more importantly, they dominated the psychological battlespace as well. Israel literally owned the regime lock, stock, and barrel.

If even half of what is being whispered in the background is true, it was even more amazing than most realize. I suspect, and even hope, that we don’t know the full extent for years. More on why in a minute. Some of the psyops are out in the open: for example, was Qaani killed in a strike, or an Israeli asset who was gotten out in a special operation and is now in Israel? If he wasn’t killed but is missing, he would be well advised to stay missing as there are those in the regime who are convinced he was an Israeli asset and are acting accordingly. If he was and did get out, hope he’s got great security. The fear and reaction by those convinced he was an asset may well be having all the results the Israeli’s could have hoped for. That appears to be happening for others up and down the chain as well.

The U.S. strike using MOPS appears to have worked very well. Ventilation shafts are a cliche in fiction, and are quick to get readers complaining about suspension of disbelief. Fact is, they often are an Achilles Heel to defenses as few want the cost of doing them right. Lots cheaper just to go straight down, no dog legs, no cofferdams, etc. Take a look at the satellite imagery, and pay particular attention to the subsidence in various locations. There are also signs of a hot and nasty fire. As others have pointed out, if you want to know what burns nicely and hot, take a look at the materials data sheet for uranium hexaflouride (and related compounds). As for the “reporting” saying otherwise I simply note that it comes from CNN (and amplified by the NYT, where the Spirit of Duranty lives!) and a reporter who is known to be a mouthpiece for the swamp portion of the intelligence community. I trust nothing from any of those sources until it has been confirmed by multiple reliable sources.

My only concern is that I think it should have been a 14-day-war. Israel was in the process of destroying the mechanisms that keep the mad mullahs in power. They blew open the doors to Evin prison, which is where many political prisoners were kept. They were destroying the Basij and other units propping up the regime. For all that I don’t think we should be directly involved in regime change, I wish that things had continued long enough to give Iranians a fighting chance at it. Even more importantly that the Shah-in-Exile, I am aware of one (or more) groups within Iran that were working for a successful revolution with all the planning that requires. Revolutions without such planning rarely work (most revolutions ultimately fail, TBH) and a lot of needed groundwork has been laid.

Iran is not a normal state. They are a theocracy contingent upon creating their version of Armageddon so as to bring about the return of the 13th/hidden Imam. That they die in the process is simply a cost of bringing about his return. If you don’t know about this, start reading because it shapes how much they are willing to suffer — and to have the people suffer instead of them. They will cheerfully sacrifice the entire country to this end. Of course, they expect that as the elite they will survive and be rewarded, but if needed are at least willing to give lip service to martyrdom.

Which means that what drives most state leadership does not apply here. They really are not subject to the art of the deal in that regard. Already they have tested Israel directly and via proxies. For Israel, it is no longer Oct. 6, and they have to respond with overwhelming force less they be boiled like a frog. One hopes that the White House is up on this, and realizes where we and they are in that regard. We are the Great Satan, Israel is the Lesser/Small Satan, and they are sworn to destroy us both. We must never forget that.

Now, there are some signs the mad mullahs regime is fracturing and may collapse on its own. Good. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch. Again, we should not be directly involved in a regime change; but, we should have no issues taking actions which make such possible so as to eliminate a clear and present danger to the U.S. We stand a much better chance with the Shah and the other group internal who have been planning for a real transition of power and who are well aware of historical precedents (including how unusual the U.S. revolution was to be honest).

As for the sleeper cells in the U.S., I’m honestly surprised we haven’t heard more out of them. Fact is, it’s a given they are here. Now, various raids were recently conducted against some illegal immigrants from Iran, some of who had most interesting pasts. Including one, a sniper, who still had his IRGC ID on him. My advice from previous stands: no definitive intel, but be alert and be prepared. This isn’t over and until the mullahs are gone and the illegal immigrants are removed. After all, the Iranians were only one part of the (at least, IMO) four-plus battalions of military aged males who entered under the Biden regency.

More soon. I’m bouncing back from the exhaustion of Brother Juniper’s and on being tied up on medical and other issues. Meantime, keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark. Be safe and be prepared my friends.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Starlink For Iran

Standby to copy:

IRANIAN FAQ: HOW TO CONNECT TO STARLINK FROM IRAN RIGHT NOW FROM YOUR PHONE WITHOUT A DISH

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Send Free Text Messages Using Only a Phone — No Internet, No Dish, No Wi-Fi Required

Starlink, the satellite internet system built by Elon Musk, is now active over Iran as of June 14, 2025. This means people inside the country can send and receive text messages directly through satellites — even if local internet or mobile networks are shut down. You do not need a dish You do not need Wi-Fi You do not need a router You do not need Starlink’s physical kit

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What You DO Need •An unlocked phone (not locked to one phone company) •A modern LTE smartphone (iPhone 14 or newer, recent Samsung Galaxy, Pixel, etc.) •An active SIM card from a mobile carrier.

How It Works Starlink satellites now use something called Direct-to-Cell, which turns each satellite into a mobile tower in space. When your phone loses connection to ground towers, it can automatically link to a satellite overhead. You will not see a special symbol. It looks like a normal LTE signal with low strength.

What You Can Do Right Now •Send and receive SMS text messages •Works even if Iranian mobile service is blocked •Works without internet or any other connection

What You Can’t Do Yet •No voice calls •No mobile internet •No messaging apps (WhatsApp, Signal, Telegram, etc.)

Full service — including voice and mobile data — is planned for later in 2025, but basic text messaging is available now if you meet the phone, SIM, and clear sky requirements.

Elon Musk confirmed that Starlink’s beams are currently active over Iran, so this method is working in real time. This may be one of the only ways to stay connected during network blackouts. You can’t stream Netflix. But you can stay in touch. Thanks to @elonmusk

And I repeat what I said the other day: now or never, it’s up to you. Godspeed.