Category: Current Events

Asymmetrical Musings 1

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

There are many, many lessons coming out of the Russia-Ukraine war. First one is, when Russia tells you that plan to annex you back into Russia, not only do you need to believe them, you need to convince everyone else in the world they mean what they say. After 2014, the Ukraine began to prepare and there was a massive change in the mindset there. That deserves a full column on its own.

Despite its losses, Russia is determined to regain its former territories and if thwarted now, they will try again later. As long as the current Russia/Russian government exists, it will keep trying. Also, per previous, if Vladimir can’t have the Ukraine now, he may well make it were no one will have it.

Now, on to this morning’s musings. Whether tube, rocket, or other, artillery has proven itself to still be the king of battle. The tank is not dead, but is going to have to continue to adapt to a rapidly changing threat environment. Infantry is not going anywhere either, though training and flexibility are going to be key.

The real key out of all of what we are seeing, however, is ingenuity and mental flexibility. This will be particularly true for anyone who finds themselves occupied, effectively occupied, or threatened with occupation by unfriendly forces be it a rapacious neighbor (cough baltic states taiwan cough) or other. Given all, if I were in such a location, I would be looking at trying to stockpile electronics, 3-D printers, and a few other things. More on that another day, but COTS can win the day.

In any war, battle, or skirmish, the party who thinks fastest laughs last. Yep, borrowed that from John Ringo, but it is true and really is the key to asymmetrical conflict. There was a Ukrainian commercial about shovels that our leadership and intel people missed, that hammered home on the need for fast thinking, innovation, and then decisive action. All based around the common shovel and use of same.

The ability to think, adapt, and overcome is essential to any war, but when you add in the need to set aside conventional thinking and operations, it puts it on a very different level. After all, your opponent may have fighters, nukes, tanks, oh my! You may have few or none. That’s when having a mind that can step outside the box means the difference between success and slavery.

Going back to this discussion of nuclear targeting, I brought up the theory of selective elimination as a bit of humor with some serious undertones. In the example used, Vladimir might not target Washington DC and various state capitals because leaving them intact would do more damage to the U.S. than nuking them. To be honest, I can make a good case for it. That’s another post for another day.

Selective elimination is a tactic useful in asymmetric warfare and long-term warfare. In simplest terms, you target the competent leadership of your enemy and leave the incompetents in place. It can be direct elimination, or it can involve denying competent leadership the chance to showcase what they can do by refusing action to them.

It also can be done by putting that competent leadership into an untenable position dictated by the enemy’s domestic politics. Gen. Cope and Preston Pans comes to mind for that. You can find a good presentation on selective elimination given in the book The Island Worlds by Eric Kotani and John Maddox Roberts. Good series by the way, fun reads.

Now, to bring what you may have thought was a non sequitur (or my lightning fuzzed short term memory issues shining through) back onto topic, think back to the very early days of the war. Think back to the Ukrainians getting inside Russian coms and playing whack-a-general. My question is, were we watching the Ukrainians play a variant of the selective elimination process?

Note that of the ones that got a lot of coverage, the ones killed were those who were out trying to rally and lead their troops. That in and of itself speaks to professionalism if not competence. How many leaders at various levels were recalled, replaced, etc. because they could not successfully engage the Ukrainians.

No, selective elimination by itself won’t win a war or end an occupation. But it will make the territory that much harder to take, much less control. It is but one facet of the lynchpin that is laughing last.

Addendum: Don’t forget, leadership extends from the lowest levels on up. When occupied, look for the competent and effective leaders, officers and NCOs, from the squad on up. Eliminate enough of those rally points and it hamstrings even the most effective of generals.

Missile, Missile, In The Air

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

You’re going to fall to Earth somewhere. Late yesterday, there were posts saying two Russian cruise missiles had missed a target in the Ukraine and hit Poland instead. Other than noting I really could do without Russian quality control, I joined with a few other sane people to encourage waiting, getting facts, and noting that this was a NATO Article 4 situation, not 5. Then, being so terrified by the more outrageous tweets and reports (/sarc) I went to bed.

Even before I went to bed, I was noticing amidst the many calls for NATO to take action, that some key people were being very precise with their wording. Such as “Russian made rocket” and the like. When politicians and other senior types get that precise, there is a reason.

Sure enough, this morning there is confirmation that they were not Russian cruise missiles, or even SRBMs. Instead, they were anti-aircraft missiles launched by the Ukrainians at Russian missiles. Russian built, yes; but, not Russian fired. Those pushing for a “real” war between NATO and Russia seem to be switching gears to the concept that Russia was responsible since it was their attack that resulted in the missiles being fired.

As we’ve discussed here before, back in the very early days, there are a number of people and countries who want a no-fly zone over the Ukraine. That such would guarantee an expansion of the war and pit NATO versus Russia is the goal desired by them. Some of them are former client states, who know Russia’s goals for reunification and have no desire to ever be subject to Moscow again. Hard to blame them, but let’s consider other options before starting WWIII. Others have their own reason, and a number of politicians and oligarchia around the world (including the U.S.) see a chance to get rich and continue centralizing government power off another endless war.

After all, the people most likely to die are deplorables and low-lifes anyway, not the upper-crust elite blue check/Ivy League/WEF crowd. The so-called elites want to thin those people out anyway. Nope, breaking thousands of eggs for an omelette is fine by them as none of their types will be among the eggs used.

The problem with that is, if things go the way they easily could, they may be among the first to go. Let’s face it, those big cities so favored by the so-called elites? Targets. In part because of the elites.

As I noted here and here, we are headed into far more dangerous times rather than into calmer in regards war. Throw in all the domestic and international issues and problems, and it just gets better and better (/sarc)

Yesterday provides a great example in terms of how far too many, including our leaders, really don’t understand Russia or the Russian people. No, they are not just like us but speak a different language. They have a very different history and culture that shapes their actions and reactions.

Look at the Russian reaction to the accusations they had hit Poland. As I noted elsewhere, the standard Russian reaction to anyone calling it out on anything is a combination of overly dramatic soccer player screaming like he’s being gutted by Jack the Ripper and falling to the ground when someone moves within five feet of him, and psycho Mel Gibson from Lethal Weapon. ‘Oh, oh, I’ve been attacked and I will retaliate massively. You know I will, I’m crazy, I’ve proven it, do or say anything and it’s on!’ Tip: the more they scream and threaten over an accusation, the more guilty they are.

In many respects, the best response is to respond with reason crossed with psycho Mel Gibson. The problem is, that is a fine line to walk. Especially given three key pieces of cultural baggage.

First, you have the Russian cultural inferiority complex. If you’ve not read some of work on Russians and culture by Kamil Galeev, or some of the really good history books, it can be hard to understand. Short version, they’ve always seen themselves as the downtrodden country bumpkins in comparison to other countries, particularly Germany and England. It’s why when Catherine decided to “modernize” Russia she imported Germans, made them nobles, and used the German model of government and society for Russia. It’s a factor in German/Russian relations to this day.

Second, you have another layer of cultural inferiority that comes from Communism. Communism was constantly playing catch-up with the rest of the world in terms of products, technology, science, and pretty much anything else because Communism/Socialism sucks and destroys creativity, productivity, and all else that is good including lives.

Third, you have Rus/Slav paranoia, which is raised up into an art form all its own. Yes, they have been attacked many times. Sometimes in response to their actions, as the neighbors get a bit peeved when you invade, rape, and pillage over the centuries with gleeful abandon. Anyway, the various invasions led to the whole concept of controlling the passes to prevent any attacks (or retaliation). It also led to massive paranoia that makes me look like Captain Whatever. That paranoia and equating retaliation with attack really shines at times like this.

All of this is why Russia immediately claimed any accusation they were responsible in any way, shape, or form was a provocation (attack). They are always the victim in their own mind. A “victim” that increasingly only has limited cards to play. Again, we are headed into far more interesting times right now.

While I suspect far too many leaders and so-called elites don’t have a clue about history and culture, others do. Others who have played this incident for all they are worth to expand the war. They are the most dangerous, as they know they are playing with nuclear fire, and don’t care.

So, where are we? Article 4 is off the table for now, though NATO will discuss/is discussing the situation at its scheduled meeting. Vladimir will make hay off the accusations with the internal audience, which is the only one he truly cares about and it may indeed help him with it. Those pushing for a “real” war could sadly make some headway.

My take is: treat any and all reports as unconfirmed to start. Things can move too fast in situations like this for the 48-hour rule, but sit back, listen, and check trusted sources. Do not pour gasoline on any fires. Also, make note of who clickbaits and posts wildly. They, like sources that headline most posts as BREAKING NEWS and such, are not to be trusted.

Before I forget, my title and opening line are a play on a poem in Mad magazine many years (decades, sigh) back. It was an ode to NASA that had me rolling. Not going to post the whole thing, but I still remember and love the lines: “We shot a rocket into space, we fear it fell to Earth someplace. Though we were aiming for the moon, Red China says we hit Kowloon.” The ending was “…and all our space probe expertise, found nothing but enraged Chinese.” And, yes, it does play off the old poem about shooting an arrow into the air. Back in the day, Mad made full use of the classics and was an amazingly fun read.

A Tuesday Omnibus

Between choppy internet access (hopefully new router here soon) and choppy events, I think it best to do a quick omnibus post that covers some highlights. Some of these may get done in more detail here soon.

First, Russia is NOT done in Ukraine even with the losses. The people who are saying that Vladimir has no choice, call it a day, and other hopeful things are making two basic mistakes. One, they fail to get that this is all based on domestic Russian politics; and, that they do politics differently.

Right now, the spin seems to be that the military screwed the pooch and all the problems come from that and not the corruption of the oligarchia. Further, that the political leaders were not aware of all the problems that existed as they weren’t properly informed. Which is saying by strong implication that Vladimir and others were lied to rather than they made mistakes.

If you think the media narratives here are bad, you should see what goes on in Russia. For all that there is still a lot of cynicism at the media left over from Soviet days, the Russian population has been fed a massive amount of propaganda and manipulation for the last 20 years. The populace may be starting to figure out that bad things are happening, but it truly is not yet common knowledge. Add in the new draconian punishments for disrespecting the military and the like, and yes they can keep controlling the narrative for a far longer time than many believe.

Which means we are truly starting to hit critical times. As the political situation becomes more dire because the military situation continues to crumble, the chances go up for things to escalate and or get out of control. Things are going to get more dicey, not better. Hang on, and seriously pray.

Also, do check out Ed at Hot Air in regards the dumbest “question” so far from CNN, along with some good and important questions about our intelligence community. Well worth a read.

I will also offer my sympathies to the family of Ed Lambert, and highly urge you to read Stephen Green’s excellent tribute to the man. Godspeed Ed.

I also have to agree with Stephen on this. I hope Artemis I makes it into space safely, not the least as I know someone who has a payload on it. But, again, it is still mid-70s tech and the last gasp of the old space job distribution system. I don’t see the new SLS (keep in mind, Shuttle was also the first SLS) carrying cargo to orbit.

Finally, I want to get back to working on the book Preparedness Pays and using that for a series of posts here. Since I now have a number of readers who are interested in practical preparedness and more, seems to be the right thing to do. Originally, I was going to use all the “correct” terminology and such to increase the possibility of some outreach (and sales) to official and academic disaster preparedness/emergency management operations.

Thing is, I’ve been a small part of those efforts before. When it comes to local, there are some great people and operations out there. I’m thinking that the book needs to speak to the average person, and not to “the experts” in DC and academia. So, instead of people, infrastructure, and resources, plan to go with people, places, and things.

As I’ve said a time or hundred on here before, there are infinity-minus-2 potential disasters out there. What matters is that there are only three things that can be damaged: people, places, and things. There are only three things that can happen to people: loss of resources, physical harm, and fiscal harm. Places basically have only two options: physical damage and loss of resources. Things boils down to: loss, damage, shortage. Not quite a 3×3 matrix, but you’ve gone from infinity-minus-2 to effectively 3 points each for planning. Simplifies things nicely.

A lot has changed since my article on disaster preparedness appeared in IEEE Spectrum a few decades back. There I looked at about five things, three works much better. Once you quit trying to play guess-the-disaster, that’s when good things start to happen in terms of real practical preparedness.

More soon!

*****

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Also, If the site is slow loading or you’ve had trouble getting through, my apologies. We are experiencing growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog.

A Different Take On Russia

If the site is slow loading or you’ve had trouble getting through, my apologies. We are experiencing growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog. Working on it, feel free to hit the tip jar to help me keep going and upgrade the site. Your gifts truly do make the difference. Working on adding a mail-in option, others; if interested in mail-in for now drop me a line.

I’ve been talking with reader Bill on several topics about Russia, which are actually related. Been promising him an article or two, and it’s time to deliver. While I said it early on, it’s time to revisit what I think is in store for Russia in the near future. Absent some massive political, social, and other changes, Russia is frelled. There are several reasons for this.

First up, as I and others have discussed before, is birthrate. This article in the Moscow Times gives a good overview and is worth the read. It’s even in English so no translation needed. When you factor in ethnicity, the Rus/Slavs are being outbred by pretty much every other ethnic group, often by a significant margin. Still looking for some solid figures, but it appears that in a number of areas the Rus/Slav group is already a shrinking minority.

This is not new in many respects, as Russkiy Mir called for efforts to reverse this trend and to bring home ethnic Rus/Slav that were not currently part of Russia. It’s why the Russians are kidnapping so many Ukrainian children as they are essential to repopulation efforts.

The other key component in trying to halt the demographic slide is to change the abortion culture that gripped (grips?) Russia. While it is changing, abortion was (is?) the primary means of birth control. Given infant and maternal mortality rates, and a lack of basic reliable healthcare, it was the chosen method. In 2000, more than 2 million abortions were performed in Russia, and while numbers have significantly dropped, it is an ongoing cultural battle. See this article and this article for some additional background.

Keep in mind that most of the data/statistics shown are the official statistics of the Russian government, and may or may not accurately reflect reality. I’ve seen some other statistics out there that indicate your average Rus/Slav woman of childbearing years has had multiple abortions (unconfirmed rates of 10-20 in a lifetime), which also has a very negative affect on the ability to have children when marriage and other factors put you in a position to want children. If anyone has a source of accurate statistics on abortion by ethnic group, would love to see them.

To further complicate efforts to halt the population decline Russia has one of the worst, if not the worst, rate of spread and rate of death from AIDS/HIV. How bad is it? So bad the Russian government no longer reports the data (or they had quit the last time I checked). Major mode of spread seems to be drug use, which is also a factor I’m not going to get into too much today. Read this article, this article, and this article for more information. Again, I’ve seen some real interesting numbers, and where it appears there is widening drug (and alcohol) abuse with a corresponding spread of AIDS/HIV is in younger males in the prime years for marriage, family, etc.

Now, you also have to factor in brain drain. While the news has been focused on young men fleeing Russia to avoid getting sent to the Ukraine, brain drain is a long-term problem for Russia that seems to only be growing. It’s not just males either, but females as well. Kamil Galeev has written about this before and I commend his works on the subject to you. He’s someone I respect, and respect the thought processes, even if/when I disagree with him. Great insights on Russia, and he is a good example of the brain drain they face. Again, based on what data I can find, this is an ongoing and accelerating problem.

Russia is a resource rich country, make no mistake. It literally, however, can’t tap it’s own resources to any degree right now. Rus/Slav paranoia about foreign partnerships (and there are companies around the world who would love to to be a part of such efforts since even a small percentage of such is going to be huge) along with remnants of Soviet/Communist inferiority complex are a large part of the problem. The other problem is that developing the people-resources needed means they need smart, clever, and ambitious people who can think outside the box. Most of which are leaving Russia for better opportunities and circumstances. Under the oligarchia and current culture, there is very little for them in Russia.

In addition to a vast amount of resources, Russia also had its reputation as a top-tier military power and as a nuclear power. Yes, I said had and mean it.

I’m having one of those mornings today, so I can’t remember if it was the Institute for the Study of War (ISW on Twitter), Dmitri, or Kamil Galeev who stated in the last few days that internal Russian politics will cope with problems with the military while military defeats will result in domestic political change. I agree with the basic assessment.

For all that Russians take pride in a mighty military, being a member of the military itself has fallen out of favor. Military members are seen, effectively, as dumb, morally cripple, and about anything else a leftist has said here about our own military. Have heard that the Russian military members are a bit of a handful for local law enforcement, and may be far more involved in drug dealing, theft, and other delights than in what might be regarded as normal shenanigans for a basic troop.

For all that troops are increasingly regarded as scum by what appears to be a growing part of the population, Russians do take pride in having a mighty military that will protect them from the evil West, Nazis, and others. That can meet any challenge, defeat any enemy, and do so quickly. After all, they’ve been promised by Putin and others that the military is a priority, has the best equipment, is well trained, etc.

By opening the military to the oligarchia for looting, it is increasingly clear that the Russian military is a shell of its former self. Word is that we and others have been able to buy equipment and advanced systems to study because troops (and their families) were literally starving. The missing radios from the Russian doomsday plane should have been a bigger clue to all than it apparently was. I certainly had no idea of the extent to which the corruption had disrupted everything from uniforms to specialized gear. Cheap imported tires are the least of the problems the Russian military faces.

Right now, there are serious questions about how much of the warstock they have can even be used. Tanks and rifles are rusted to the point of being inoperative and non-repairable. Specialized gear? Look at how many years overdue the SATAN-II missile is right now, and one gets an idea of why it and other systems are being questioned. Soviet era supplies, especially on things like MOPP gear, are toast at this point.

On paper, they still have a huge military with lots of gear. I have one question on that, which is if the 20 percent ghost trooping we appeared to see early on isn’t a much higher percentage. When millions of uniforms don’t exist because of corruption, how many of the troops are really there? How many of their aircraft are truly fully serviceable?

Which is why things are about to get even more interesting for Russia. Armenia and Azerbaijan are not the only potential flash point on the Russian flanks (and within treaty). There are any number of areas that are potentially restive towards rule by Moscow, and if you think China hasn’t considered absorbing some of those resource-rich areas next to their border you are delusional. And if you think the Middle Kingdom is happy with Vladimir buying or trying to buy stocks of ammo from North Korea, I’ve got a bridge for you. North Korea has long been an area of contention between the two powers. Also, Winnie the Poo is not likely to be happy in regards Iran for that matter. China has long been expanding its influence there, using carefully metered nuclear help among other things. Now, Tehran is openly asking for advanced nuclear weapon development help as part of the deal for drones (which have far too many Western, including US, parts in them).

On top of that, you now have Japan pushing (hard by diplomatic standards) in regards the Kuril Islands. Japan has never accepted their loss, and for years has pushed on a purely diplomatic level simply because that was the only option open to them. Between the size and perceived quality of the Russian military, and it being a nuclear power, they were not stupid and so made no military move. Now, even as people start to openly debate if Russia qualifies as either a second or third tier military, who knows? I don’t expect to see Japan do something militarily aggressive but what else might they do?

Russia, as we know it, is on course to implode. Between population shrinkage, and the rapid shrinking of the ethnic Rus/Slav people, and brain drain, the current system has no chance of long-term survival. Add in everything else, and the odds go up rather dramatically on the system coming apart in the next ten to twenty years. Now, factor in military defeat in Ukraine and the impact that is going to have on populations and politics, and it means the next few years might be more interesting than any of us would like. Especially given that Russia is an unstable nuclear power to an extent that makes the old Soviet Union breaking apart seem stable by comparison.

As I pointed out yesterday, the invasion and all that is going on in Russia is based on domestic Russian politics. What I’ve outlined above are some of the factors driving those domestic politics. Dealing with the international and other issues depends on leaders outside of Russia not only understanding the domestic Russian political situation but also the cultural factors playing into it and into popular opinion within Russia. For that we have Dementia Joe and the incompetent Regency; Macron the Macaroon; the Germans; the British (who hopefully still have a decent MoD and aren’t going to replace the PM every week); and, Xi the unstable. Oh, and keep in mind that Great Leader, Khamenei (who is facing open rebellion), and a few others are fishing around in these troubled waters too. At a time where the world truly needs stable, intelligent, and competent leadership, this is what we have.

Russia is not the only country that may be frelled.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Russia Update 9 Nov

If the site is slow loading or you’ve had trouble getting through, my apologies. We are experiencing growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog. Working on it, feel free to hit the tip jar to help me keep going and upgrade the site. Your gifts truly do make the difference. Working on adding a mail-in option, others; if interested in mail-in for now drop me a line.

There really isn’t a lot new to update. The only change from the previous is that there are more signs that Vladimir is facing some serious opposition, but nothing (yet) that could take him out of power. The jousting for position continues, and it is hard to tell what is simply securing the best position possible versus trying to get in position to make changes.

Remember, if it doesn’t happen in Moscow, it doesn’t mean a thing. There is the St. Petersburg caveat, but…

The one thing that has come up is a reminder from Kamil Galeev that the invasion of Ukraine and all that is going on has little to do with international relations from Russia’s point of view. The invasion stems from domestic politics, not international. It’s very true, and is something to keep in mind in the days ahead as international takes are going to have to deal with domestic realities when dealing with Vladimir and Russia.

If the military situation shifts in the occupied territories, then I expect to see some more open shifts within Russian domestic politics. Absent that, I expect to see things continue to bubble away under the surface as no one yet wants to make a true public move.

I will note that Vladimir and company have continued to go low-key on the nuclear rhetoric. Not sure if this is because of internal pressures, external pressures, or that secret talks are giving him what he wants. I reiterate that giving in to nuclear blackmail will have worse long-term consequences.

Meantime, if you want a fun little read, this article on Moscow shelters is actually quite enjoyable. Don’t laugh at the fact that one former shelter is now a tourist attraction, as we’ve done the same with at least one of ours. My thanks to Robert Hopkins on Twitter for the link.

Oh, yes, no sign of shelters being stocked outside of Moscow, which seems mostly for show. Same as before. Also, yes, Stalin had the subways put deep for a reason. He also had portions made truly beautiful and while they are no longer good shelter, at least the last time I was there they were still quite beautiful.

Frankly, since our national leadership is not going to step up to the task, I wish more state and local leaders would take steps to bring their shelters back online or build new ones. The threat of nuclear issues (war, deliberate meltdown, etc.) is but one of the reasons having those shelters available is a good idea. They can be useful in a variety of non-nuclear situations as well. Having them available also serves as a deterrent to those thinking nuclear war, terrorism, etc.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Preparedness On The Fly II: Quick Thoughts

If the site is slow loading or you’ve had trouble getting through, my apologies. We are experiencing growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog. Working on it, feel free to hit the tip jar to help me keep going and upgrade the site. Your gifts truly do make the difference. Working on adding a mail-in option, others; if interested in mail-in for now drop me a line.

I know that people love lists. They want specific recommendations, and there are those who will cater to that and, in some cases, make lots of money off them. I left Amazon and its affiliate program years ago (never looked back) and boy howdy to I wish I got free things, money, and more from some of the people I do recommend (waves at Streamlight). I’m a writer, therefore a whore for all that I prefer to see myself as a courtesan as opposed to a street walker.

What do I recommend getting and in what order? It remains: Food, Water Processing, and Cooking/Heating. It doesn’t matter if there is a nuclear war or “just” the disruption of the world-wide food and drug production and distribution system, the basic needs remain the same. Also remember that Professor Reynolds is right: You are the carbon they want to reduce. Prepare accordingly.

On food, aside from ensuring basic nutrition, consider how much of what we eat and drink comes from overseas in whole or in part. Coffee and Tea, for example, are imports. If you like them as much as I like them, stock up. You know what else is imported? Chocolate, a lot of coconut and coconut products, and some other staples for baking and even producing pasta and such. Spices quite often are imported, and peppercorns were known as the King’s spice for a reason. Himalayan Pink Salt? First word gives it away. Oh, yes, it is a good idea to have some iodized salt tucked away, as while it is not as good as the potassium iodide tablets it’s better than nothing. That smoked paprika you like? Most likely an import. Canned pineapple? Keep in mind that the pineapple is a symbol of royalty for a reason, as only royalty could afford to have fresh pineapple shipped in to enjoy. Even when grown in Hawai’i, it is still shipped.

Don’t stint on your basic nutrition, and a lot of what we consider junk (canned pasta items for instance) can get you by surprisingly well. That said, stock up on the import items while you can. Heck, if someone wants to get me a gift card to The Fresh Market so I can stock up on coffee and tea (and some other things), drop me a line as I will not object. Same holds true for WalMart, Meijer, and Fresh Thyme. Really do need to beef up the strategic hot sauce reserve as well, come to think of it.

Unless you know of a local salt mine or lick, you need salt and a good bit of it. Again, it’s one of those things that what you start with may be all you have for a while. Also, not a bad idea to have several gallons of vinegar on hand for pickling, cleaning, etc. Said all that before, but it needs the repetition.

I will add that your supplements and medical needs go right in there with basic food. Again, start with the things you can get that come in whole or in part from overseas. Then add in the rest.

Water is a close second to food. Without water, we die and we will do so even faster than we will starve to death. Much, much faster. In addition to stocks, you need to be able to create clean water. Get thee to a good sporting goods store and get some good systems. My recommendation is that everyone, regardless of age, have their own at need. You also need to be able to process large amounts when circumstances allow. I’ve discussed these systems before and I highly recommend not getting filters but complete purification systems.

Thing is, don’t stop there. Get the replacement elements (filter, purification, etc.) that you need to change them out on a regular basis. Get as many of those replacements as you can. The more you have, the better. The one time I will recommend a filter system is for a Chemical Biological Nuclear (CBN) environment. In that case, it’s not a bad idea to filter source water before running it through your main purification system(s). Check the filter with a geiger counter often, treat as potential hazmat, and use it as long as you can.

Why the emphasis on water? Well, in a nuclear exchange I don’t expect municipal water supplies to be on for long if they survive, and residual pressure is only going to go so far. The same holds true for whatever stockpile you have created. In the event of global supply disruption, where do you think the chemicals used by many municipal water treatment plants comes from? Civilization is a fragile thing, and many of the things we take for granted, like food and reasonably safe water, are as well.

Now, on to cooking and heating. Let’s face it, it may be a long, hard, and cold winter for many in England and Europe; and, some other locations around the world are going to have issues as well. While I don’t expect the same levels of rolling blackouts, gas shutoffs, and the like here, they are not out of the realm of possibility. In the event of a major disaster such as a nuclear war or exchange, well, let’s just say the supplies of energy might face an impact (juuuuuussst a touch outside!).

So, you need to be able to cook and/or heat if not your full home at least the shelter area you’ve set up. Propane stoves are great and come in a variety of sizes and such. You can even get propane ovens for camping (and, yes, I really want one myself). Even better, you can get indoor-safe propane heaters to use to augment any heat from cooking. There are other indoor-safe options and I urge you to explore them. Redundancy is a good thing. If you have a fireplace, remember that in a nuclear event you need to cap it, and if capped it is not safe to use.

There are many things you can safely eat raw. That said, hot food warms the body and the soul, and there is a reason a good military works hard to ensure its troops get a hot meal before battle. Survival in the face of disaster is indeed a battle. Which reminds me we really should talk emergency cooking one day here soon.

Food, water, cooking/heat. They really are the cornerstone of preparedness and survival. In this case, it’s a good list and a good priority list for those coming late to the whole concept of preparedness, practical or otherwise.

Also, again, let me recommend paper copies of Dean Ing’s Pulling Through and Pat Frank’s Alas Babylon. Also, while fiction, John Ringo’s Black Tide Rising Series gets into a lot of good information via engaging stories. If you can find any of Jerry Pournelle’s writings on preparedness and survival, they are quite useful as well.

Preparedness On The Fly Series

Preparedness On The Fly (Food)

Preparedness On The Fly: Water

Preparedness On The Fly: Light

Preparedness On The Fly: Cooking

Preparedness On The Fly: Gear

Preparedness On The Fly: Protection

Preparedness On The Fly: General Thoughts

Preparedness On The Fly II: Complete Nutrition I

Preparedness On The Fly II: Complete Nutrition II

Preparedness On The Fly II: Health

Of Interest

Preparedness: Bugout!

Buying Your First Weapon

Start Of All Posts On Preparedness

Nuclear Overview

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Preparedness On The Fly II: Health

If the site is slow loading or you’ve had trouble getting through, my apologies. We are experiencing growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog. Working on it, feel free to hit the tip jar to help me keep going and upgrade the site. Your gifts truly do make the difference. Working on adding a mail-in option, others; if interested in mail-in for now drop me a line.

The last two posts have focused on nutrition for the long term, now we need to look at one final component to ensuring your health: medications. I’m going to include OTC in this as well, as they are going to be more important long-term than you may realize.

One result of getting hit by lightning is that I now take an impressive array of supplements and medications. Not as many as some, but I went from a couple of antihistamines to several cardiac-related drugs. The good news is my blood work and blood pressure (which was the truly nasty thing post-strike) are doing very well. Which means I want to maintain that as much as possible.

The problem is, between costs and insurance, I’m limited in how much of a stock I can build up for emergencies. Doesn’t mean I’m not working to do so, but it is limited. One would hope federal officials would release renewals of such in the face of nuclear or other disaster, as DeSantis did in Florida before Ian, but competence is not a hallmark of our so-called elites and elite institutions.

What you can stock up on are your OTC medicines including but not limited to: anti-diarrhea, anti-nausea, antacids, cold/flu, etc. If you have allergies, stock up on antihistamines. Whatever the condition, if there are OTC meds that can work for it, get them. In terms of first aid, get bandages, ointments, cleaning supplies (betadyne, etc.), burn bandages, etc. In a true disaster, such things are worth their weight in gold.

Also look into a good trauma kit or kits (every bugout bag should have one as well as basic first aid) as in a disaster the likelihood of major trauma rises rather significantly. A small kit that can easily be carried on you at all times is a good idea, especially if you do carry concealed. Also comes in handy for car trips given accidents.

Don’t forget foot care as well, as in a major disaster if you have to do the bugout boogie the odds of you having to go shank’s mare at some point is pretty good. Moleskin can be your friend, along with foot powders and other delights. Always take care of your feet before, during, and after any disaster.

In addition to instruction if at all possible, be sure to pick-up some good self-help guides. Many decades ago I came across a book called (I think) ‘Be Your Own Wilderness Doctor’ and it was focused on backpackers and others who could find themselves deep in the wilderness in the days before cell and sat phones. It basically covered how to do enough to get by and stay alive until you could get to real medical help. Guess what. In a major disaster your ability to get to real medical help is likely to be very limited. Find the modern equivalents and keep them with you.

Before I forget, invest in good freezer bags. Store important books and documents in them, and put multiple bags into a larger bag for redundancy. When I’ve backpacked or even traveled, I tend to pack everything I can in high-quality storage bags as caca occureth at the best of times. If something leaks in the luggage, if something leaks onto my luggage and it’s not as waterproof as claimed, or if it simply rains, my gear tends to stay dry and clean. FYI, I’ve been paranoid enough to augment the bags with wet-boxes of various types just to be safe, particularly with documents and copies of critical documents.

Now, let’s approach a potentially delicate matter. Consider what’s below as an intellectual exercise on creating a backup plan for your first few backup plans. This is not recommended for any reason other than as an intellectual exercise.

First up, if you’ve waited until the last possible minute and are doing the boogie, don’t stop for any reason until well past minimum safe distance. I don’t care if they are giving away free gold, ice cream, drugs, or anything else, it is not worth your life. Move out!

Now, once you are past minimum safe distance, and/or the disaster has occurred, and if you are relatively safe at the moment, you may want to plan to consider the possibility of breaking the law. Let the idiots loot the appliance stores and grab the televisions, if you loot anything, let it be a good hardware or camping store, and a pharmacy or doctor’s office.

Forget the junky’s dream, concentrate on what you need: the prescriptions for you and yours; local and other anesthetics along with basic surgical supplies such as scalpels, sutures, etc.; antibiotics; anti-diarrhea and anti-nausea medications; pre-natal items (Pro-tip: in disasters large and small, humans procreate and there is a boom in births about 9-10 months after. Be prepared); gabapentin and other non-narcotic pain meds; and, only if room and time, heavy-duty pain relief. If there are field medications, as in what you might find in a combat medic’s bag, grab those.

At a hardware or home supply, respirators and masks are a good start along with plastic, tape, and related. Camping and sporting goods, look for more filters for your water system and other gear that will help ensure your long-term survival.

Hopefully you will never need to even consider doing anything like this, as you have planned ahead and the civil authorities will have released stocks and done what is needed to help you deal with the disaster. However, it’s always good to have a backup plan to the first few backup plans and doing the above is just that: a mental exercise to create a backup plan that is hopefully well down the list even as an intellectual exercise.

I will say this as well. We’ve talked a bit before about the desirability to have a group of good people with whom to rally and/or bugout with at need. Consider that having a good GP, surgeon, surgical or similar nurse, EMT, former/current combat medic, or other competent medical professional as part of that group is a very, very, good idea. Have the chance to add such during a bugout? Take it and them.

Also, as you are doing the above purely intellectual exercise, consider the following as well. If the location of a doctor’s office or pharmacy is defensible and offers the needed levels of shelter for the situation, consider making it a temporary or long-term base. If there are people there, offer to help take on security and other duties and see if they are willing to partner or join in. If not, move on.

Moving on from purely intellectual exercises, stock up on the OTCs, and work the rest as you can. Just keep in mind that the health/medical supplies you have may be all you have for a very long time. Make your supplies both count and last.

Preparedness On The Fly Series

Preparedness On The Fly (Food)

Preparedness On The Fly: Water

Preparedness On The Fly: Light

Preparedness On The Fly: Cooking

Preparedness On The Fly: Gear

Preparedness On The Fly: Protection

Preparedness On The Fly: General Thoughts

Preparedness On The Fly II: Complete Nutrition I

Preparedness On The Fly II: Complete Nutrition II

Of Interest

Preparedness: Bugout!

Buying Your First Weapon

Start Of All Posts On Preparedness

Nuclear Overview

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Russia SITREP 2Nov22

If the site is slow loading or you’ve had trouble getting through, my apologies. We are experiencing growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog. Working on it, feel free to hit the tip jar to help me keep going and upgrade the site. Your gifts truly do make the difference. Working on adding a mail-in option, others; if interested in mail-in for now drop me a line.

Right now, I’m really wishing the bookies in Vegas were running a section and taking odds on what is going on in Russia. Not just with the internal politics, but with pretty much everything else too. I would trust some streetwise bookies to better understand things and place odds than I would all the Ivy League intel professionals and politicians combined. If anyone could make sense of things, it would be the bookies.

That said, let’s take a look at what appears to be going on in Russia this morning. I don’t think I’m wrong when I say that I suspect pretty much none of us truly do know what is going on and understand it.

There are rumors that GROM did not go quite as expected. In terms of show, the public show was as expected with Vladimir in his Hollywood bunker at the Kremlin and various taped displays showing launches and such. Taped displays. One of which appears to have been interesting. I’m trying to find out more, and really want to get some good copies of some of the video. The CBN-ready troops were no surprise, as the Oligarchs learned long ago to have a group ready that could parade in gear of all types on television at need.

What is interesting is how far that gear and readiness truly extends. As with uniforms and so much more, there is growing word that MOPP and other gear that is supposed to be there and ready is not there. MOPP and other gear from the Soviet era is deader than a doornail. APCs, tanks, and other delights that are supposed to be operational in a nuclear environment require seals and filters to operate. When was the last time that maintenance was performed? The parts ordered and produced? Neoprene and other materials needed for CBN operations have a shelf-life. Just sayin…

Yes, they are cleaning out and restocking the shelters in Moscow. That is show for the domestic audience, as they are also continuing to push the whole ‘only America has ever used and we have never threatened’ bullshit to the internal audience. Right now, no one is seeing signs of this anywhere else. Which is good. We start seeing it elsewhere, we need to worry. Until then, attention is good but not too much worry.

Aside from one more threat, Vladimir and company have continued to stay quiet for the most part. Some of this may be pushback external; some may be pushback internal; and, some may be a glimmer of understanding about true states of readiness on all levels, not just nuclear. More than ever I think we may be looking at a situation where if 20 percent of nuclear forces on both sides work, it would be a surprise. Really don’t want to find out for sure, but as I’ve noted before, we (the world) can’t cave in to this nuclear blackmail or the situation will end up far worse than a nuclear war now. Then again, given the continuing unhelpful comments from the demented meat puppet and the incompetent Regency, we may get it despite the various sides trying to back down.

Amidst this, we also have a lot of politics being played. As I’ve noted before and will continue to emphasize, unless it happens in Moscow it doesn’t matter. Only exception, and it is limited, is if it happens in St. Petersburg. Right now, Vladimir still has Moscow locked up, though not as tight as he did a month ago. Various people and groups seem to be trying to prepare assets or bring them into play in Moscow, but it is muted and careful for the most part. Some may be simply preparing for a transition post-Vladimir, while others might be looking for an opportunity to hurry that process along.

The most interesting and amazingly open version of this is Prigozhin. When it looked like it was just him trying to take out Shoigu, I put my money on Shoigu. However, as I noted at the time, the combination of Prigozhin and Kadyrov, now joined by others, is a very different equation. Various reports now state that Prigozhin has confronted Vladimir over how things are going and the leadership of the military. There are unconfirmed reports that Col. Gen. Lapin, a favorite of Vladimir, has been sacked. There were even reports that he had died/been killed in Moscow. The latter were not believable, but at the same time speak loudly to the political maneuvers underway.

The fact is that Prigozhin, Kadyrov, and others are more than a little upset at how things are going, and want a more aggressive set of operations. How this will be done with the current supply situation (which is largely the fault of high-level corruption) short of going to special weapons is something not being discussed in public by them. Rumors about in private, but not a lot in public, yet. There is also the possibility that they may join others in pushing to get out since they can’t win by conventional arms.

Recently, Prigozhin praised Zelensky and stated that he was capable and should not be underestimated. This is a radical departure from Vladimir and his inner circle. It may indicate many things, from setting the stage for ultimate withdrawal to taking things next level. The latter is not just nuclear, but also political in that Prigozhin may be working simply to put himself on the best possible footing for a post-Vladimir world. It could also mean, but most likely does not, that he’s open to creating that post-Vladimir world. With Kadyrov the kingmaker on his side, the options are open.

There is clearly, however, growing opposition to the war and a growing belief that Vladimir’s plans are unrealistic. Where that truly matters is in Kremlin leadership (including elements of the military not fully controlled by the Oligarchs) and the Oligarchia itself. Public opinion outside of Moscow means nothing. That said, public opinion in Moscow means a good deal, and the public is growing restive. Restive enough to help push change? Not yet, not really. May in time, perhaps even a short amount of time. The resistance in those upper ranks of leadership, however, means a great deal.

The thing is, those stress fractures I’ve talked about before are growing. Vladimir’s health seems to be a growing topic within the Kremlin and Moscow. That things aren’t going well in the special military operation is finally being admitted in circles where such discussions were not permitted before. While public facades are being maintained in many cases, what lies behind is not the picture being presented.

Again, I really wish the bookies in Vegas were running odds on the internal politics as I think they might make more sense out of things than I or anyone else. There is always a degree of politics in play at any given time, but right now there appears to be a lot of jockeying for position going on besides that of Prigozhin, Kadyrov, and company. Good or bad remains to be seen, at least from our viewpoint.

Please just remember that even if Vladimir were to go away today, most of those likely to replace him are even more hardline than he. Most of those in a position to replace him are both adherents to Russkiy Mir and adamant Slavophiles. None of them are of the Western faction. A change of leadership does not mean any of the short- or long-term problems go away.

Oh, and before I forget, the Brits are increasing their lead in the threats from the Kremlin/Vladimir. Yet more have come out in just the last week, with the Russians blaming the Brits for the pipeline explosions. Worth noting.

As for what will happen and the chances of nuclear war? Your guess may be as good as mine. 60/40, 40/60 the odds don’t seem to have changed a whole lot right now. I still expect that if Vladimir stays alive and in power that he would rather see the Ukraine uninhabitable if he can’t have it. Causing problems at the nuclear power plants is a great way to do this and he can claim it was the Ukrainians doing dirty bomb work. He may be willing to openly target them. Then again, he could also push forward with the throughly discredited dirty bomb hoax though that will not work out for him as he thinks it will. His options are in many respects increasingly limited, and rats trapped in corners, even by their own actions, are potentially at their most dangerous.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Preparedness On The Fly II: Complete Nutrition II

If the site is slow loading or you’ve had trouble getting through, my apologies. We are experiencing growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog. Working on it, feel free to hit the tip jar to help me keep going and upgrade the site. Your gifts truly do make the difference. Working on adding a mail-in option, others; if interested in mail-in for now drop me a line.

Picking up on yesterday, let’s consider what happens if you did get a year’s worth of wholesome food put away, but the year is about up. A similar situation is if you didn’t get a year’s worth of food put away and are having to scrounge or otherwise depend on outside sources of food. In all cases, the health of you and yours depends on getting the right amount of those 72 trace elements I mentioned yesterday, as well as the 9 essential proteins your body can’t make for itself.

The answer lies in supplements, which is to say vitamins, minerals, and other products that will help you get anything you miss in food. Yes, you can find supplements that claim to provide all you need for those 9 proteins, but it’s not really a good idea to bank on that. Supplements can, however, give you all those trace elements you need for health.

Trust me when I say that there are those out there who will cheerfully recommend any number of protein powders and supplements to replace meals. Some may even work for values of work. I will guarantee you that those recommending them, as well as the people who create/sell them, can and do make a lot of money off of them. Caveat Emptor!

There are a lot of supplements sold that claim many things, but those things may or may not be verified. There is more regulation than many will admit (more on that in a bit) but there are still some who may be peddling snake oil. My favorite is still the calcium supplement sold that did indeed have several hundred times the amount of calcium of any other supplement. Only thing was that it was a form of calcium that could not be absorbed by the body…

There are all sorts of supplements sold for any ailment or problem out there. Thing is, when you boil it down, any given supplement will only work for about a third the population. I’ve had doctors who took that fact and decided that supplements wouldn’t work period. Change doctors. Seriously. For me, I have tried a number of supplements over the years, and looked for results in bloodwork. No results, no more of that supplement. Currently, I take a couple of things that I am not sure really do much. But, my bloodwork right now is some of the best in my life, so neither my doctors nor I want to rock the boat so I continue to take them. That said, any stocking I may or may not do reflects what we know works versus what we are not completely sure works.

For survival, you really need to be focused on those things that provide you trace elements and other compounds you might not get from tight rations. Things I will recommend: a good multi-vitamin, Vitamin C, and Vitamin D.

A good multi-vitamin gives you most of those trace elements in the recommended daily amount. Go generic and you can get a multi-year supply for a reasonable amount. No, it’s not perfect but it gets you most of the way there. Yes, right now you are urinating most of it away. In a survival situation you likely won’t be. You will be glad to have it.

Why Vitamin C? Scurvy for one thing. In a true disaster, Vitamin C can end up in short supply in your food (or lack thereof), which can and will result in scurvy and other delights. Just ask the British Navy, who finally figured out that a lime a day kept the doctor away. Again, inexpensive and can prevent a number of health issues.

Why Vitamin D? You may or may not be getting much sun for a while in a nuclear war or similar disaster. Low D-levels have been found to be linked with a host of medical issues, and no one wants to see rickets and other delights return. Again, D3 is inexpensive and can prevent a number of other health issues.

What else do you need? You really need to sit down with your doctor to work that out. It’s times like these that I truly miss the sadly defunct Doctors for Disaster Preparedness. In the madness of the peaceniks towards the end of the Cold War, there were doctors who said it was immoral and just plain wrong to prepare for a nuclear war (or any other disaster). Thus was DDP born in counter, and it was a very good organization who’s members could and would help you prepare. If you trust your doctor, get with them and ask what you should look at getting and taking.

For example, I take a particular fish oil capsule because of the changes in my bloodwork once I started taking it. My cardiologist is not Miss Merry Supplement Supporter in some respects, so when she looked at the previous results, looked at the current results, and simply said “keep taking it!” I paid attention. It’s also one that I need to do a better job of stocking as it is expensive (by my standards). It is also dependent upon imports.

Which is another reason you want to stock up now. I think many Americans would be amazed at how many food items, supplements, and pharmaceuticals come in whole or in part from overseas. Particularly China, where the CCP are assholes. As I noted the other day, stock up now on items that are imported, like coffee, chocolate, and — in this case — supplements. Get them now and get several years worth of each for each person. Even if we miss having a nuclear war, there are other things afoot and you are quite likely to not just be glad to have them, you may well need them as much or more than for a nuclear war.

The other reason to stock up now is that the same people who brought you the useless and destructive lockdowns, ineffective masking, and so many other delights now want to regulate supplements. The initial goal is to expand FDA oversight (and when has that not creeped, or even galloped, into more regulation???) of supplements in order to protect consumer health and safety. That latter phrase is getting right up there with “it’s for the children” as a sign of bad legislation. What it is saying is that you are too stupid to research and choose wisely for yourself, that you need to depend on your betters to decide for you what you should take or when. There are already some in Congress who have indicated that they would like to see supplements not only more tightly regulated, but even turned into something that requires a prescription. Stock up now, and remember the first rule of Preparedness Club.

Do I wish I had more stocked up? Yep. Feel free to hit the tip jar, it would be very much appreciated. Do you need to stock up? My magic 8-ball says yes, might want to check yours.

By the way, if you aren’t comfortable talking with your doctor about supplements and preparedness, aside from considering a new doctor, look into talking with a different doctor, PA, or even a good nutritionist about what will work best for you.

Preparedness On The Fly Series

Preparedness On The Fly (Food)

Preparedness On The Fly: Water

Preparedness On The Fly: Light

Preparedness On The Fly: Cooking

Preparedness On The Fly: Gear

Preparedness On The Fly: Protection

Preparedness On The Fly: General Thoughts

Preparedness On The Fly II: Complete Nutrition I

Of Interest

Preparedness: Bugout!

Buying Your First Weapon

Start Of All Posts On Preparedness

Nuclear Overview

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Preparedness On The Fly II: Complete Nutrition I

If the site is slow loading or you’ve had trouble getting through, my apologies. We are experiencing growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog. Working on it, feel free to hit the tip jar to help me keep going and upgrade the site. Your gifts truly do make the difference. Working on adding a mail-in option, GabPay, others; if interested in mail-in for now drop me a line.

Let’s face it. For most disasters, up to and including hurricanes and earthquakes, you really don’t need to be thinking a huge amount about nutrition. Between what you have stocked up in the pantry and any emergency rations you have on hand, odds are you are going to be able to eat balanced meals for the duration if you have prepared. After all, you have food, water, alternate lighting sources, and alternate cooking sources; plus, in most cases, you are talking restoration of power and such within about four weeks. Not always, but in general.

While weapons are the third rail for many discussions on preparedness, getting into nutrition and the disasters that need you to consider it is also one of those things that drives people away. After all, the government is there and will rescue you and any talk of any disaster that would require looking ahead for a year or more is just some sort of preparedness/survivalist/right-wing/libertarian/other fantasy/wet-dream. I wish it were.

While nuclear war is indeed one of those scenarios that means you need to be looking at a year or more of getting by on your own, it is not the only one. Modern logistics is built around the idea of “just in time” deliveries. Your local grocery no longer has a huge storage area in back because instead of every week (or longer), the truck(s) come 2 or more times a week. They don’t keep a week or more of X in stock because they only need to keep about two to three days worth on hand total. Smaller footprint, saves money, reduces inventory hassles and paperwork, and a few other things.

We depend on ships that use Bunker C or similar to get raw materials or products from overseas to the U.S. Then, we depend on rail for a large amount of transport, and guess what most locomotives use for fuel: diesel. That which is not transported by rail is transported by trucks, which again use diesel. Planes do carry a good bit, but it is rarely food or other items but rather finished products for the most part. It really is fascinating to look at the breakdown of what goes how, and when. Again, though, planes are dependent upon specialty fuel.

The thing is, we get the raw materials to plants where they become products. We get products and ship them to where they are needed, using one or more large distribution centers along the way. Some of these are not just one building, but huge warehouse complexes that depend on computers and automation to track and move the contents. Even more amazing is that in some of these complexes the contents can completely turn over in as little as a day in some cases. From the large centers things can go to smaller centers but quite often they go directly to the final destination.

The dance that is modern logistics truly is amazing. It is a very intricate mechanism, and the problem with intricate things is that it does not necessarily take much to jam them up. For example, automation and computers drive the system, much less make it possible to move the products. Without computers, hand-helds, and other systems, nothing moves. Loss of electricity, malware, and other delights, and nothing moves. Without diesel and other specialty fuels, there is no way to move the goods. For that matter, without the fertilizers (some key ones require oil to produce) there would be no crops, and without the specialty fuels there is no way to pick and prepare the crops, much less mine or otherwise produce raw materials. Given the system, if it goes down for a few days to a week, it could take months (or longer) to get it back up and running again. Just look at the continuing problems getting stock after the lockdowns as but one example.

To cut things short, there are a number of things that can happen that disrupt the logistics chain. Nuclear war, loss of fertilizer and such overseas, fuel problems (cough, diesel, cough), a transportation strike (cough, railroad strike, cough), or other disaster that impacts fuel, electricity, or the ability to move the products, and things can get interesting. Combine “normal” disasters (much less human stupidity, particularly political stupidity) into the mix, and things can get very interesting.

Which is why for advanced preparedness you need to have some basic knowledge of nutrition. That knowledge can help you prepare to ride out a longer-term disaster as best possible.

At the most basic, the human body needs about two liters of water a day (at rest, directly and from food) to survive, along with about 72 trace elements and 20 essential amino acids in about 1200-1400 calories a day (you can survive on less, 600-800, but not recommended if you can avoid it). Amino acids are the building blocks of proteins, as well as a good bit of the human body. Our body can actually produce 11 of the essential amino acids we need to survive and thrive, but we need to get the remaining nine through our diet.

Now, there are foods that contain complete proteins, that is they have all 9 of the essential amino acids needed by the body. When you eat fish, poultry, dairy, eggs, and meat you are getting complete proteins. In grains, quinoa is a complete protein.

You can also “mix and match” to get complete protein. For example, legumes with rice can do the job, but if you mix legumes, a veggie, and a grain, you can as well.

As I’ve noted before, just as there is no one magic list for preparedness, there is no one perfect recipe for nutrition. You have to find what works for you and any known dietary problems or needs. Now, when I say dietary problem I mean a diagnosed medical condition, not that you hate X, Y, or Z or avoid them because of virtue signaling. While I find low-carb works well for me right now, in an emergency I’m an omnivore and will eat whatever I have to ensure proper nutrition.

If you have the storage to do canned goods and the like for a full year, go for it. If you don’t, look at dried legumes, whole grains, and similar items that will have a long shelf life and not take up huge amounts of room. Keep in mind, however, that dried legumes can take a lot of processing and can’t be eaten raw. Most grains, however, can be eaten raw or moderately processed. Also, space being at a premium, keep in mind that the pouches of tuna are pretty much a meal for one — and if inside hunkered down you really may only need one meal a day.

Some other things to consider. There is a good argument to be made for getting canned tuna in oil, as you need a certain amount of fat to survive each day. I’ve also heard good arguments for tuna in water as that water will stretch out your water supply. I will also note that while six medium to large moths can get you the required amount of fat for a day, it’s much more pleasant to get that fat from other sources.

As for those 72 trace elements, stocking up on Himalayan pink salt can help as you need salt, and that salt has traces of about 60 or so of those trace elements. Every bit helps, and the more you get from food the less you have to come up with from elsewhere. Supplements may be a topic for tomorrow, especially since the lockdown crowd is now wanting government control over all supplements and to make them a prescription item.

The other thing you need to consider is gardening. Indoor, outdoor, whatever. Yes, you do need to look at doing this to ensure a supply of veggies as well as ensuring proper nutrition. Buy seeds now. Put them away. Remember how Michigan banned the sale of seeds during lockdown, so get them now and remember the first rule of preparedness club. You will be amazed at what a well-planned garden can provide you. Done inside under the right conditions, you can do at least some things year round.

Plan now. Buy now. Prepare now. Being prepared to garden when you can may make all the difference between squeaking by and doing okay in a disaster. Remember, Preparedness Always Pays!

Preparedness On The Fly Series

Preparedness On The Fly (Food)

Preparedness On The Fly: Water

Preparedness On The Fly: Light

Preparedness On The Fly: Cooking

Preparedness On The Fly: Gear

Preparedness On The Fly: Protection

Preparedness On The Fly: General Thoughts

Of Interest

Preparedness: Bugout!

Buying Your First Weapon

Start Of All Posts On Preparedness

Nuclear Overview

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If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.