The other day, I mentioned that I had an odd feeling about the next six months. This from Stephen Green at PJ Media is one part of some very disturbing patterns in the data. There are some domestic issues as well. For all that these exist, there are also opportunities to continue walking the edge of the knife to better and safer places.
Remember that there are those who would like us to step off the knife edge in a bid to retain power and control for the failed institutions of the past. There are yet others who believe, wrongly, that it is the fastest way to seeing them on top. Both groups are desperate and stupid, and we need to avoid their attempts. There are indeed many ways for the West to fall; but, there are opportunities to achieve something greater than ever before.
So, have Faith, hold the line, pray, and prepare. This too will pass. Maybe like a kidney stone, but it shall pass. Keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark.
UPDATE I: Eric S. Raymond is all over this story and makes some good points. Start here and check out his timeline.
UPDATE II: Really do need to do a longer post, and may do so soon. Short take for now: the best thing that can happen is that all NATO members make clear that any incursion will be met with full force. Right now, Vladimir is banking on the fact that NATO won’t respond with full force. He’s betting that most of NATO lacks troops and the necessary means to project force to protect Estonia given how hollowed-out most of NATO is. The Royal Navy can’t even get a two-boat squadron underway (unless they are rowboats); Germany lacks the means to defend itself, much less get troops anywhere in a hurry; and, the list goes on. Poland has capability and will, but helping Estonia carries significant risks for them. The U.S. is the wild card, and Vladimir is quite well aware that a good number of Americans have no interest in saving Europe yet again, and few even know where Estonia is or why it’s important. The fact is, if he does act and NATO blinks in almost any way, shape, or form, it’s dead. Eastern Europe realizes this far more than Western Europe and the EU do. The latter have not figured out that the gravy train has stopped, and the few that do think this is temporary and will end as soon as Trump is out. This ties into a lot of domestic politics here as well. Maybe a longer post provided I don’t have to head to the ER again. If Vladimir gets multiple messages that NATO will act and not get away with this very old playbook, he’s likely to not act — at least not for now. If the DSA/DNC takes power again in a couple of years, no bets. Just look at all the whens and wheres in regards Crimea and Ukraine.
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