The other day, I mentioned that I had an odd feeling about the next six months. This from Stephen Green at PJ Media is one part of some very disturbing patterns in the data. There are some domestic issues as well. For all that these exist, there are also opportunities to continue walking the edge of the knife to better and safer places.
Remember that there are those who would like us to step off the knife edge in a bid to retain power and control for the failed institutions of the past. There are yet others who believe, wrongly, that it is the fastest way to seeing them on top. Both groups are desperate and stupid, and we need to avoid their attempts. There are indeed many ways for the West to fall; but, there are opportunities to achieve something greater than ever before.
So, have Faith, hold the line, pray, and prepare. This too will pass. Maybe like a kidney stone, but it shall pass. Keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark.
UPDATE I: Eric S. Raymond is all over this story and makes some good points. Start here and check out his timeline.
UPDATE II: Really do need to do a longer post, and may do so soon. Short take for now: the best thing that can happen is that all NATO members make clear that any incursion will be met with full force. Right now, Vladimir is banking on the fact that NATO won’t respond with full force. He’s betting that most of NATO lacks troops and the necessary means to project force to protect Estonia given how hollowed-out most of NATO is. The Royal Navy can’t even get a two-boat squadron underway (unless they are rowboats); Germany lacks the means to defend itself, much less get troops anywhere in a hurry; and, the list goes on. Poland has capability and will, but helping Estonia carries significant risks for them. The U.S. is the wild card, and Vladimir is quite well aware that a good number of Americans have no interest in saving Europe yet again, and few even know where Estonia is or why it’s important. The fact is, if he does act and NATO blinks in almost any way, shape, or form, it’s dead. Eastern Europe realizes this far more than Western Europe and the EU do. The latter have not figured out that the gravy train has stopped, and the few that do think this is temporary and will end as soon as Trump is out. This ties into a lot of domestic politics here as well. Maybe a longer post provided I don’t have to head to the ER again. If Vladimir gets multiple messages that NATO will act and not get away with this very old playbook, he’s likely to not act — at least not for now. If the DSA/DNC takes power again in a couple of years, no bets. Just look at all the whens and wheres in regards Crimea and Ukraine.
UPDATE III: Col. Kratman has a few thoughts. Pretty good ones as usual.
UPDATE IV: A longer follow-up post is here.
Getting hit by lightning is not fun! It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. If you would like to help me with seminary courses, pilgrimages, and more, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. Thank you.
On the gripping hand Trent Telenko posted on X (https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/2102176988312092837 ) a link where there were Russians saying they were going to have to cancel further autumn campaign attacks in Ukraine because of a lack of fuel for Moscow.
Now a) this could be a fake/misdirection because they want the oil for the Estonia campaign, but b) if true, and if Ukraine continues to blow the snot out of Russian oil reffineries etc. then incursions int Estonia may be very very limited.
I also note that c) if the balloon does go up in Estonia then I would assume that Russia’s Baltic ports will be blockaded immediately by Estonia and Finland as would all passage to/from Kaliningrad. Swapping Narva for Kaliningrad seems like an odd choice and I am quite sure that Poland and the Baltics would greatly prefer not to have Kaliningrad between them in the event of hostilities
I need to do a full post just to respond (smile) but you make some good points. I will note, however, that while I used to highly value Trent’s posts, I have not done so for a while now and in fact had muted him on X as I couldn’t even regard him as a reliable 180-degree waypoint. Not sure what he said as it appears to have been deleted. However, I think Vladimir sees this as a low-cost way to fracture and end NATO. One he can likely do without even having to put troops over the border. One that even if he stops now, he can do a full-Crimea on Estonia if the next elections put the DES/DNC back in power. Pretty much the same playbook. More in a bit.
NATO has a window of vulnerability from now to a point about five years from now when the new money has been spent, weapons bought, units created and exercised.
Putin needs to act before the investments become reality. His odds of success decrease over that period.
Agree, and think he sees this as a low-cost way to fracture and end NATO with little long-term risk. Sad thing is, I’m not sure he’s wrong. Longer post coming as this does tie into some things (and funding possibly even) here as well as elsewhere.