Once again, Vladimir is rattling the nuclear sabre like it’s a set of castanets in a flamenco dance. It’s been his thing from the start, as he’s threatened to go nuclear every time Ukraine dares to truly fight back. Put up resistance, NUKES! Any attack on territory Vladimir has seized, NUKES! Any deep strike against Russia, NUKES! Zelenskyy takes his daily dump, NUKES!
The latest bit of castanet soundings comes out of a 2024 update to military doctrine which allows for use of nuclear/special weapons in response to a conventional attack. Frankly, I regard it as a sign of awareness that Russian conventional forces are in a parlous state. The only thing interesting about this latest bit is that it may have been first stated in public by a Russian diplomat/dignitary in Ireland. Really doesn’t matter, as Vladimir and his Moscow Orchestra began baying about it for all to hear.
Why? Simple really. Go back and read here and here. Even the slackest armchair strategist noted that if Vladimir did indeed go after Estonia, in whole or in part, NATO or certain of its member states would be well within their rights to take out Kaliningrad. A pretty obvious response that seems to have slipped the attention of some advisors in Moscow. To try to block such a move, Vladimir has once again trotted out NUKES! as a tired, overworked, overused response to the possibility. Frankly, in many respects, it’s the only strategic card he has left.
It also leaves aside the questionable reliability of his nuclear weapons (don’t laugh, our own may not be any better) and that of his delivery systems. Dr. Doomsday can rattle on all he wants about limited use of tactical nukes and how Russia would win such usage and things would not escalate. Fact is, there has never been a distinction made between tactical and strategic use at the political policy level of the West. Under current U.S. leadership, I would expect that to hold. Caveat Emptor, at a level I really don’t want to see tested but know where I think things would fall. I have seen nothing to change my previous thoughts on the 80/20 divide.
So, I don’t expect nukes this time either. What I do see is an huge increase in asymmetrical warfare, including the use of proxy terrorists (who may even do it for one of the political causes de jour despite funding and assistance) to take out targets in Europe and England. I noted a good while back that England has gotten a LOT of the focus of Russian ire, and that has not changed. For now, Vladimir seems content to let the current leadership finish off what little is left of England; but, I also wouldn’t be surprised to find that there was some clandestine support for attacks via immigrants as well as some of the malicious prosecutions underway against ruling clique opponents. I will say that if there is anything approaching an open attack, it will be against England. In Europe, it will stay proxy for now. In the U.S. things will stay proxy for now.
For now, it never hurts to be prepared for interesting times. If you aren’t and want to get prepared, go here and work your way forward. For me, I’m not too worried about nukes. Far more concerning is how energy has become the primary battlefield and I expect that to continue and grow. Good time to explore alternate means of heating and cooking during the winter, just in case. My hope is that things don’t get out of hand, or otherwise too bad, and that we continue to walk the knife edge in all things. There is more solid footing ahead if we can just make it there.
Have Faith. Be Prepared. Keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark.
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