Of Fractals And Fractures

Many analysts talk about patterns in the data. The pattern stands out when recognized, and as you visualize and explore it, it can become a visual, a fractal that can then merge and grows into a larger shape or pattern. If one stands back far enough, these fractals can take on a different appearance, or meaning. What is a shape, perhaps even a thing of beauty at a small scale, can present a much less benign appearance when seen combining with other shapes at a distance.

Take for instance a crack in a piece of ice, or glass. By itself, it can be a thing of beauty within the crystalline solid of clear ice. However, if enough of them form and join together, you realize that the structure of the ice is compromised and what you are seeing is the shatter-pattern present just before unity disintegrates.

If you have ever seen a sheet of modern safety glass that has shattered, but held structural integrity, you know that it is a thing of beauty. The patterns within the glass are complex and can even add to the beauty by individual pieces reflecting and even refracting light in different ways. It is a beauty that lasts up until even the smallest of external forces knocks a piece out of place. Then, quite often, the whole thing collapses into a pile of pieces.

Right now, I’m trying to figure out if I am seeing fractals around the world, or shatter patterns.

I haven’t written much about Russia or Vladimir lately, as there isn’t much earth shattering going on. It’s mostly the same old, same old as various people and factions jockey for position not only for power now, but to gain more power when Vladimir is gone. Are there those who want him gone? You bet your bippy. Are some of them allies or close to him? Again, safe bet. Are any of them likely to act soon? Not likely absent either an unexpected event or unexpectedly getting all the pieces in place.

As I noted previously, Kadyrov seems to be increasingly marginalized, and may no longer be the kingmaker he once was. Would dearly love to know if the 1,000 troops he had stationed near the Kremlin to support Vladimir are still in place. Behind the scenes there may be some movement to ensure the leadership is proper Russian, and those who are not are not allowed near the true levers of power.

I think I previously described some of what is going on as those in power trying to put up a sheet of frosted glass to hide what is going on as they jockey and prepare for a transition from Vladimir. It is coming one way or another within the next ten years, and the way things are going I would be willing to put a small wager on it being within five years.

Because that sheet of frosted glass may not be frosted, but showing the fractals becoming a shatter pattern.

The death of noted Putin critic Vladimir Shklyarov is a very small part of the frost. For all that it is being officially blamed on pain killers, defenestration has been the choice of the ruling clique. Looming much larger are other issues, such as the economy, lack of skilled workers, and a dwindling ethnic Rus/Slav population. The lack of skilled trades (which is true here too) is hammering Russian efforts to grow on all fronts, along with causing product shortages and transportation problems. The only way they can get needed parts (chips, electronics, etc.) is via European and U.S. companies (among others) supplying them despite sanctions. For all that he seems to have gone off the rails in the last year, the work Kamil Galeev was doing on this subject (as well as his work on the philosophical background to the current war) was excellent. There are links in previous posts, use the search function.

The Russian military has been shown to be a mostly paper bear if you will. Yes, they can put many more people in uniform and throw them into the meat grinder — if they are willing to tank the economy and finish the Rus/Slav ethnic groups as a viable population. The massive stockpiles of materials are in such bad shape it is easier and cheaper to make or buy new from elsewhere. There is reason to believe that the strategic/nuclear forces are in similar shape. Not sure ours are any better to be honest… There appears to be a (semi) organized resistance that is engaging in sabotage against the war and regime. Efforts to control news and information are not working as planned. There is more, but this gives you a good idea of some of the major problems faced. Add in that Vladimir and the top people live in information bubbles similar to our own so-called “elite” and you have leadership that is out of touch with reality at almost every level.

To be fair, China is in much the same boat. I’m not going to get into all the details, but their economy is in very bad shape, they have their own demographic issues, and an increasingly restive set of populations. For all that Winnie-the-Xi is trying hard to eliminate any competition, there remain those that could move against him. Yes, the Chinese are spending like mad on military and seem determined to go after Taiwan. Yes, if we go to war with them right now, I expect most of our Pacific fleet to be on the bottom rather rapidly. For more on this, see the works of Cdr. Salamander who is all over this with very good takes. They are being very aggressive on many fronts, but are not as strong as they try to appear in all of them. One or two major stumbles or bits of pushback, and things may well change rapidly and dynamically.

I’ve noted before that Iran is a powder keg that grows more unstable every day. There are other countries with similar issues and problems, and it is true with them as well.

Even here, the so-called credentialed elite that have been in charge since Wilson are facing change. The existing power structure is fractured, rotten, and I think they are just milking it for as long as they can, even as they try to create a new socialist/communist system to make that go a bit further. Problem is, they didn’t and don’t have complete control of media and information (thank you Elon) and really did not expect the pushback they got in the last election. Again, there are economic and demographic issues, of which the millions in illegal immigrants play a part.

So, am I seeing fractals or shatter patterns? Increasingly, I think the answer is the latter, which makes it a fun and interesting time. Change is scary. Massive change is terrifying. What comes next, here or there? In times of massive change, terrors are oft the norm. The times are indeed perilous for while we avoided the socialist pattern this election, there are more elections to come and the old system will not go down without a fight.

My thought is: keep pushing. Fight for what is right, fight for individual freedom and liberty, fight for the Republic, and most of all, fight for the ideals that defined Western civilization that took man to the moon. Let’s build on that as we have an option right now for a path that will take us to the stars.

Won’t be easy, won’t be fun in many ways, but it can be done. There may be hardship, sorrow, and more. But, in the end, we have the chance to leave a better world to our children. Maybe even we can enjoy it for a bit ourselves.

Fight. Fight. Fight.

I also suggest you pray. I made a change to one of the morning prayers so that it now says “…save the suffering people of Earth from the yoke of the godless authority.” A prayer or three for this world and our own country would not amiss as well (yes, do that too).

Meantime, be active, push your congresscritters and local governments to do what is right. Be prepared. Keep your friends close and your things where you can find them in the dark.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving once we have medical issues cleared up, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.