Month: April 2023

Sorting

This morning finds me still sorting and sifting through a number of thoughts and emotions. I’m trying to get a handle on life, figure out where I need to be and go, and get things on as even a keel as I can in this unsettled world. I’ve been praying, and even have some Friars praying for me, that I be guided to what I should be doing, where I should be doing it, and the means to make both happen are provided.

On top of this, and a great deal of economic uncertainty, I spent part of yesterday at the visitation for a former supervisor/manager. He was not a great manager, but far from the worst at that concern. We weren’t friends or particularly close, but got along. He seemed to be a nice man who also tried to be a good man. We both ended up leaving that concern, and I met him a few years back when he was at a very different job. Glad we did, even though neither of us had a lot of time.

Covid and the hysteria brought more changes to his life, and he took to delivering pizzas. Couple of weeks ago he caught a delivery that proved to be to an abandoned house, where he was shot dead. He wasn’t robbed. The pizza and car were taken, but both left not all that far away. Senseless does not begin to describe it. This comes on top of a person/creature from Indy who drove down to Greenwood on the southside, pulled into the parking lot for a popular restaurant/bar, and waited for someone to come out alone so they could kill them just for the thrill. Just to do it.

Indianapolis is no longer the city I knew. I really don’t even like to go downtown during the day, and will not go at night anymore. Monument Circle is owned by the homeless/mentally ill, and the rampant violence has spread to pretty much every neighborhood in the city, and beyond. It’s spreading out into the surrounding communities. Right now, we are on track to set records yet again with homicides and other crimes, and have more murders per capita than Chicago.

I really want to move to the Southwest; but, given that something comes up every time I try, it appears that such a move or the timing of such a move are not what God has planned. I’m looking at options, though I need to remain in Indiana while disability and some other things are in process. That said, wish I could find another month-to-month situation (at the same rent!!!) in a location removed from Indy and the ring counties. Winning the lottery would be nice too, wouldn’t it?

So, a bit pensive as I contemplate mortality, morality, and the collapse of society. I fear for the cities this summer, and really hope that I’m away from here by then as I think it could be another summer of love fire. Hoping to take a walk in a bit, then maybe go do something fun to shake the mood. We will see.

Make the most of your Saturday and seize the joy and beauty within. May your Sunday be blessed as well.

A Return To MADness

Growing up in the 1960s and 70s meant growing up under the threat of a mushroom cloud. The Cold War was indeed a frigid and real thing, for all that it came close to going hot far too many times. Nuclear war, and surviving same, was something I studied and I think I read Alas Babylon for the first time before I was twelve. A high school science fair project was designing an underground shelter that could hold out for five years in the event of a nuclear war. Yeah, I was a little different. Okay, quit laughing, a lot different.

What the kids today call OSINT, or Open Source Intelligence, we called Soviet Watching while the media referred to the people who did it as Kremlinologists. Some worked for the government, many of us did not. I started getting into Soviet Watching in the late 70s, and after a run-in with the KGB in 82/83, got serious about it. Serious enough that my Master’s thesis was apparently the world’s first OSINT directory, The Soviet Watchers. Ended up doing some interesting things with interesting people. Funny story on that here.

While I had loathed communism since third grade because the father of a female classmate was a political prisoner in Cuba, it is fair to say I was far more “liberal” than I am today. I did not like the concept of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), but had to reluctantly admit it had helped keep the peace. I studied, learned what I could, and prayed that one day we would get out from under that MADness.

Then came Reagan, who because of the media coverage terrified me at first on nuclear issues. Some of those interesting things I did caused me to change my opinion of Boss. Despite a close call or two, he was responsible for two things I never thought I would see in my lifetime: the fall of the Berlin wall and an end of the major MADness. Nothing can erase nuclear weapons, and a bit of the MADness remains as a result, but the threat of sudden full-scale nuclear war was pretty much off the table, at least in regards Russia. I’ve been told that Boss regarded it as one of the single best things he accomplished.

For me, there was a huge feeling of relief. No more EWO, gold teams, hot pad alerts, and all the rest. The problem was, there were still bad guys out there, and I’ve long pushed for significant upgrades and improvements in our nuclear arsenal. While the spectre of WWIII no longer loomed, we needed to be able to counter other threats with a flexible range of options.

While we have cruise missiles and related delights, we are still using Minuteman III missiles as the land-based portion of the triad. Yes, they have been upgraded, but there are limits to what you can do. We really needed to move up back in Reagan’s day, but every effort then and pretty much since has been fought tooth and nail. To this day, I wonder how much some politicians and activists were paid by the Soviet Union, and later Russia and others (cough, China, cough).

Allegedly, we will have the new LGM-35A Sentinel showing up this year and replacing the Minutman III by 2029. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Meantime, we have rogue states like Iran stepping up to the nuclear stage, and in China we have a Soviet-level nuclear threat. In fact, in many respects, it is a larger threat in my opinion.

On top of that, we have Vladimir who went where those who have sense feared to tread by making nuclear threats. There are two things at work here. First, the nuclear threat is all he had left after the conventional military was gutted by corruption. I think the nuclear force has been gutted as well, as I discussed yesterday. Second, the demented meat puppet in the White House apparently told Vladimir a while back that he was terrified of a nuclear war and would do about anything to avoid such. Sigh. Leroy Jenkins school of diplomacy.

My world was much less stressful and even happy when I was not having to think about flight times and megatons. OUR world was much safer before Vladimir and the Biden Regency decided to try to out-stupid each other. A pox on both their houses. Problem is, the threat has been made and must be honored. If we give in to nuclear blackmail, as I’ve pointed out a time or two before, it will lead to a far worse and far more destructive situation later.

The world has changed since the major MADness departed. Technology has advanced, and as a result we are not going to have thirty or so minutes to act, for bases on or near the coast (including DC) we are looking at five to eight minutes for a naval launch off the coast. Shades of First Strike.

Sadly, I think we need to go back to the days of hot pads and continuous airborne command posts. We need to update, harden, and disperse. We also urgently need to speed up development of anti-missile systems and bring back an updated Strategic Defense Initiative. We must not give in to nuclear blackmail, but we also need to do all we can to keep us safe and the genie bottled.

But, as I’ve also noted multiple times, the MADness worked only with sane, stable, and competent leaders. Having an insane or unstable leader involved was a terrifying prospect.

Which brings us to the floating blazing dumpster fire that is the Biden Regency; Prime Minister Castreaux pulling a number of interesting stunts to stay in power; Macaroon in France is dealing with protests and riots (mysteriously not covered by corporate media in the U.S.); Xi scrambling to maintain his hold on power; and Vladimir dealing with a war he can’t win and a “friend” who looks to be preparing to try to dethrone him. Add to it GOFOs who couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse, and then there’s the intelligence community… We. Are. So. Fucked.

Smart money would be on updating and improving. In fact, if someone wanted some more detailed suggestions I might even be able to give you something in a day or so. It’s not going to happen, but it’s nice to indulge in fantasy every now and then.

Meantime, I’m going to echo Sarah and say don’t despair. Prepare as best you can, keep your things where you can find them in the dark, and hope for the best. Somehow, we will get by.

UPDATE: Been pondering a bit, and I would add one thing to my recommendation: hold off on regulating space, and let’s get on out there. Elon Musk is right when he says we need to be a multi-planet species. Earth is the cradle of humanity, it’s past time we leave the cradle. Orbital is already doable, the moon can be done if not left to NASA, and Elon’s working on Mars. Be nice to get into the asteroids and make parts of the Island Worlds real.

Which Missile?

UPDATE BELOW

Reader Nichevo asked a couple of good questions the other day, and today I’m going to try to answer the second one. Why does the change in from the SARMAT (aka SATAN II) to the YARS matter? This also will allow some expansion on my twenty percent references.

Let’s start by stating the obvious: nuclear weapons, particularly modern “safe” nuclear weapons, are extremely complex systems. Aside from various critters we’ve considered for use in weapons delivery, and we have looked at a surprising array of those, modern delivery systems are extremely complex systems. Most delivery systems today are multi-stage in that one system launches yet another system. Missiles launch independent re-entry vehicles. Aircraft launch cruise missiles at targets. Submarines launch missiles which may or may not have more than one independent re-entry vehicles. I am not trying to be obnoxious here, there really is a reason for getting this basic, please be patient.

There are two basic types of missile/rocket in use today: those that use solid rocket motors or liquid-fueled engines. Solid-fuel motors are pretty much like a bottle rocket. You light it, the fuel burns, and it burns until gone. Liquid-fueled engines can be cut on and off multiple times. Yes, for the pedantic, there are indeed some solid engines out there, and some motors that can be cut off at need. Yes, I’m sure you can create hybrid systems, and for a number of reasons that’s all I’m going to say about solid engines and hybrids. ICBMs tend to go tried and true for rather obvious reasons (that clearly aren’t obvious to some) and use either solid motors or liquid engines.

Third obvious point: modern delivery systems at all levels are far more accurate than their predecessors. When you look at Circular Error Probability (CEP) we’ve gone from hitting miles away from the target to hitting inches from the target. And that’s even with many modern delivery systems being able to maneuver in an effort to avoid defensive fire. The more modern the missile or delivery vehicle, the more accurate it is likely to be.

I’m going to drop the old proper style, and not do the all-caps thing on names. Sarmat, aka Satan II, aka the RS-28 is the latest and greatest Russian long-range ICBM allegedly in production. It can fly deceptive courses! It has longer range than any system the decadent West has produced! It carries more and larger warheads, and can carry a mix of standard and hypersonic delivery vehicles! It slices! It dices! The West has nothing that can stand up to it!! Sorry, think I just channeled Vladimir doing his rendition of Goodgulf Greyteeth’s rant on hocus pocus in Bored of the Rings.

It is also several years behind schedule, as it was expected to fully replace the remaining Satan-I, aka the R-36, aka the SS-18 two to three years ago if I’m remembering correctly (stupid lightning). Which suggests development or production problems, if not both. Sarmat is a liquid-fueled system that appears to have a rather complex launch system, as you can see here in this video. Note the “successful” test shown comes after the date previously announced by Russia for it to be operational. More on this in a moment.

The Yars system, a solid-fuel system, was introduced around 2010, and is an upgrade of the older Topol-M system. It is limited to three warheads as opposed to the 10-12 warheads (yeah, there are some arguments/debates/mixes) possible with a Sarmat. Note older, and solid-fuel.

One of those obvious reasons for tried and true is that with solids, there is no lost time loading fuel or doing anything else. Turn the key, press the button, they are reliable. Provided you’ve stored them correctly and replaced segments as they hit end of service life. Otherwise, you get cracks and other delights, and you always have the chance of voids in the fuel from production issues. In which case, that motor segment is going to get cranky. If it gets cranky anywhere at or near ground level, trust me you will feel it ten to twenty miles away.

So, why go with an older, likely less accurate, and less capable system? Look at what’s gone on at the ISS recently. Something caused a Soyuz capsule to lose it’s coolant, rather spectacularly. It may have been a micrometeorite. Some observers have noted other issues, and there has been discussion of shoddy workmanship (Soviet-era level) and possible sabotage with the Russian vehicles. Bad workmanship or sabotage of liquid-fuel rocket systems.

There are a lot of people, including some who should know better, that have maintained loudly that the Russians would never have skimped on their nuclear systems, or extended the corruption that took over the military to it. Really? In what flippin universe?

Hypothetical question for you. If there was indeed a failed launch attempt during the Biden Regency visit to Ukraine, what do you want to bet it was a Sarmat? After all, if you are going to do a demo and make a point a la Khrushchev at the UN, why would you not use your latest and greatest?

To be fair, the Soviet Union had a history of shoddy workmanship. Identical spacecraft where parts couldn’t be exchanged between them. Soviet rockets used so many engines because they expected to lose up to a third of them on any given launch. If you are curious, I think Jim Oberg has talked about it a few times, possibly in his book Red Star In Orbit and various magazine articles. Others have as well. While things were reportedly improving in the Russian Federation, we may be seeing a return to the Soviet era ‘they pretend to pay us, we pretend to work’ mindset.

We may also be seeing a different form of defiance. Sabotage by disgruntled workers would not be a new thing for Russia. Keep in mind that despite all the attempts to smash it, there is an anti-war effort and it appears to be growing. I’ve been hearing a lot of reports of sabotage across Russia, but have also been taking those with a grain of salt. I’m at a point where I’m giving the idea credence.

Which takes us back to my somewhat pedantic start to this article. My search-fu is off today as I can’t find the link, but a while back Glenn Reynolds was — I think — the first to openly comment on the twenty percent concept. At the height of the Cold War, the Brass was pushing the concept of 100 percent EWO (Emergency War Orders) ready. If the brass asked ‘Are you EWO ready?’ the answer better be ‘Sir, yes Sir! I am EWO ready Sir!’ Anyone with a brain knew that this was impossible, but it ensured that we could make the 80 percent threshold. That is, with all those complex systems, 80 percent of them would work. I suspect that 90 percent really was the goal, but…

Anyway, if the codes went out, at least 80 percent of the bombers would take off, 80 percent of the missiles would launch, 80 percent of the bombs would explode, etc.

Glenn was the first to say, in effect, that we would be lucky if twenty percent worked. The old equation has been stood on its head. I hope and pray we never find out, but I’m hitting a point where I think that if 10 percent worked I would be surprised. Complex systems require maintenance, testing, and upgrades. What’s the first thing that gets cut when Gen. Cyrus wants to have another struggle session on white rage during one of the lowest budgets in decades? Or, your newly minted “officer” who is really a civilian there to loot so he can maybe become a true oligarch, looks for easy money? Old story, on pretty much every side out there. Sigh.

That Russia is having to drop it’s nuclear threat to an older and more limited system speaks volumes. It says a lot about production, and the hints of sabotage are getting louder. It is also the strongest indicator yet that Russian nuclear forces have been, and possibly still are, getting gutted by corruption just like the rest of the military. Like I say, there is a lot of RUMINT going around, but there are enough indicators for me to feel confident on this.

So much so I am dropping my 40/60 60/40 level. I think we have less than a ten percent chance of any nuclear usage, but will drop the likelihood to 10 percent. The only reason I’m going that high is that stupidity is still a factor. MAD depended on stable and competent leadership. Right now, we have the Biden Regency, which is the Leroy Jenkins of competent action; Vladimir with health and other issues, including an associate who is looking to unseat him; Xi has more problems than many realizes; and, well, you get the idea.

The percentage really doesn’t matter in some respects. We have nuclear weapons and war being threatened as it is the last illusion of power Russia has to wave at the world. That, and Biden told Vladimir how scared he was of nuclear war and apparently that he would do anything to avoid it. What do we do about it? I’m going to try to write about that tomorrow.

For anyone just dropping by, this page has a lot of links to previous work, and this page is dedicated to nuclear articles. Feel free to take your time, browse around, heck, if you’ve got an adult beverage or a good cigar, go for it.

UPDATE: To answer/agree with several comments, disbanding SAC was a huge mistake. In fact, it was a clusterfuck of such a magnitude that I suspect it was felt in other dimensions. Those responsible deserve every bit of contempt and disdain that those competent in life can spare. I’m not sure we have the time and ability to recover from their gross incompetence.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Yet Another Intelligence Disaster

UPDATES BELOW

Asking for a friend: Is it too early to start drinking heavily? No, not taking up the VodkaPundit school of journalism (which is far superior to corporate journalism). Instead, I’m looking at the Biden Regency and the unmitigated disaster that is U.S. Intelligence Operations. Before I get fully into rant mode, allow me to recommend this post from Nina Bookout at Victory Girls and this post from David Strom at HotAir. Also, Nina has some good words about the Pentagon’s Baghdad Bob who seems a better fit for Russia or China than in a Republic.

Okay, to be fair, U.S. intelligence operations have been a disaster for a while now. Frankly, we never have been that good at it. Yes, we’ve had a few individuals over the years who were outstanding at the job, going back to the Civil War. Organized and large scale intelligence operations not so much. I don’t know if it’s the ghost of Stimson and the curse of the Black Chamber or something else. The OSS was a good wartime operation, but when it came time to start the metamorphasis to what eventually became the CIA, well, let’s say there have been ups and downs.

Personally, I view the current FUBAR as starting under Carter, who should have been awarded the Order of Stimson for his incompetence with intelligence, intelligence operations, and (much needed) intelligence reforms. His cavalier revelation of our ability to monitor car phones in Moscow blew that source and the much needed intelligence it provided right out the airlock.

Which brings us to the current fuckup. While I wonder if it was more than one person, someone rather clearly went shopping in a SCIF and despite all preventative measures walked out with documents that were never intended to leave the SCIF. Unlike television, getting into and out of a SCIF can be and should be a major PITA. Because if not you get the current situation. Like David, I suspect they know or have a good idea of the person or persons involved as the access list for documents like this is rather small.

Okay, bad enough that information has gotten out. That information is not going to make things easy for us or our allies, and is a boon to our enemies. It’s an even bigger boon as the information reveals sources and methods. The documents don’t have to say ‘Joe Blow in Department X says’ to reveal sources and methods. In some cases, again, the information being discussed has a limited pool of people with access. In others, it may be a dawning realization that the CIA and the Peanut are listening to more than your glowing description of Olga the masseuse.

Frankly, if I were a confidential source within either allied or enemy camps, I would see this as a lodestone moment, grab my spooker, and take a long unplanned vacation under another identity. As for the methods compromised, sigh, not much can be done and that is an area of constant cat and mouse. Short- to mid-term it is devastating, but new methods will eventually be found.

However, the release of this information is earth shaking. Catastrophic even. Coming on top of such things as the Chinese balloons, the loss of most HUMINT from China, and other delights, the damage to our ability to gather intel can’t be overstated. We already weren’t doing a good job of gathering and analyzing (see Afghanistan for many examples of same).

This puts our intelligence assets, military, and more in danger. It is going to strain and possibly rupture relationships, organizational and governmental. Intelligence sharing? Who’s going to risk anything truly sensitive now? Catastrophic is a mild term for the damage done, and if it was done to win a geek argument among gamers, the death penalty should be on the table. No, not joking. If I had handled classified information as far too many in the Regency appear to be doing, I would be under Leavenworth until my demise.

No, it’s not too early to start drinking. I just suspect there is not enough bourbon and rye in Kentucky to take the edge off dealing with the blazing floating dumpster fire that is the Biden Regency and American intelligence.

Sorry Nichevo, will try to get to your second question tomorrow.

UPDATE: Probably not ours, but headdesk headdesk headdesk

UPDATE II: An excellent read that asks some very good questions is found here. Very much agree with the conclusion. The arrest and details don’t add up, and frankly there’s a stench wafting from this.

UPDATE III: The situation with the leaker stinks to high heaven. The story and data as presented do NOT add up. This story expands on that, and the points are worth considering. Glenn Greenwald also makes some good points here. BTW, am I the only person having some cognitive dissonance with GG becoming a voice of reason? Lots of question, and I doubt we are going to get the answers. The rot runs deep.

UPDATE IV: A different take from a former member of the intelligence community. For me, still not adding up and the smell continues to grow.

UPDATE V: Let me be clear: Even if we do find out for sure later that this guy’s code name was “Patsy,” he deserves to be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. He SHOULD be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law because of the damage done to sources and methods alone. Should Vindman have been prosecuted as well? IMO, YES. In this two-tier system, the latter is not going to happen. Would that it could as both have done tremendous damage to the Republic IMO.

Russia: Some Players

In a comment to a previous post, Nichevo asks some reasonable questions. So, I’m going to try to answer them, starting with a bit of a who’s who in Russian politics. I’m not going to list all the players who potentially could take over from Vladmir, but more on those that I think have an eye on greater power. Also, keep in mind that there is not much left of open opposition to Vladimir, as several of the remaining opposition politicians have had to flee Russia to save their lives. They can’t return home, probably ever, given that.

Let’s start with the darling of the Western left, Alexei Navalny, who in many respects is both the last significant opposition figure left alive and someone who philosophically has at least some degree of being pro-Western rather than a full member of the Slavophile group. He is Russian/Ukrainian and grew up spending summers in Ukraine with his grandmother. For all that he is anti-corruption and an advocate for more honest elections, he is also a Russian (ultra) nationalist and appears to be a staunch supporter of Russkiy Mir. He had urged courting Ukraine to rejoin Russia rather than invading. He also lets his group take point on controversial issues, such as gay marriage, without officially committing to it. For all that the various charges against him, and for which he is currently in prison, are trumped up, there are questions about how far he truly wants to push anti-corruption reforms. Our so-called elites look at the surface and see an anti-Putin which makes him a de facto ally. Others who are cynical like me see someone who may be the enemy of my enemy, but realizes that such does not automatically make them our friend. Navalny is not going to open Russia, institute democracy, and end war if he takes over. The best I see is some reform; and, I also think his nationalism and opposition to immigration will prove to be salt in the mouths of Western liberals expecting sugar.

There is one more opposition politician, though I’m not sure he has a chance in the great game at this time. That is Vladimir Kara-Murza, who is currently in prison for opposing the war (among other things), and was poisoned twice. He was the protege of Boris Nemtsov, the former Deputy Prime Minister of Russia who was assassinated in 2015. He is also connected to oligarch-in-exile Mikhail Borisovich Khodorkovsky (aka MBK). All of which give him some “reach” in Russia and if he survives prison he could continue to rise. Right now, I don’t see him having the name recognition or the operational structures that Navalny has in place even with MBK restarting Open Russia in exile. Pity, as in some ways I see him and MBK as the better choice.

On the pro-Vladimir (sorta) side, the name in the lights these days is that of Yevgeny Prigozhin, oligarch and best known for his ownership stake in the Wagner Group. A former convict, he is a leading example of how prison mores have become a chic thing for Russian leadership. He has called for Shoigu’s son to be raped (and there may be some claim that he has called for all in prison for opposing Vladimir to be raped as well), as those who are raped become social omegas and that applies outside of prison as well. Charming fellow. As I noted before, there is a subtle dance required in Russia, where one goes for the gold but dances the dance of being discrete and only taking power because it is thrust on you. The public is aware of, and discussing surprisingly openly, his glaring ambition and that he and Vladimir appear to have had a falling out. His star is burning brightly, and the question is will it continue to do so or burn out. Or be snuffed out, as those Vladimir views as traitorous tend to die not long after.

Next up, you have Dmitry Medvedev. Short version is that in public he is more extreme that Vladimir but is also well-trained enough not to buck his master. For that reason, he “replaced” Vladimir in an election segment until Vladimir could run again, and did exactly as he was told during that time. He has a position of power, knows where bodies are buried, and is dug in like an Alabama tick in many regards. That said, I don’t see him as a lead in succession, though he is likely to be a key player in parts of it.

Sergei Shoigu would be the next logical choice. However, between the military failures in the invasion and the ongoing war between him and Prigozhin, I’m not seeing him as a top contender despite being extremely politically adept. If something happens to take Prigozhin out of the picture, he may well be the compromise candidate the various Slavophile factions could accept.

Two other names to keep in mind: Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Sobyanin. Right now, they are considered long shots, but of the two I think Sobyanin is the one on which to keep an eye. His mayorship of Moscow, Vladimir’s strong support, and other factors say he could be the dark horse in this saga.

Could someone come up who is not currently known? Stranger things, such as Vladimir and Medvedev, came out of nowhere in Russian politics before. Much is going to depend on how Vladimir is succeeded. I honestly don’t see him stepping down in 2024, but running and winning again. If he dies in office of natural causes, I expect the election to be between Medvedev, Lavrov, and Sobyanin. If Vladimir dies of non-natural causes, I think it could come down to literal fighting between Prigozhin, Shoigu, and Medvedev.

Keep in mind that Ramzan Kadyrov, head of the Chechen Republic, could well play kingmaker. Right now, he still has (to the best of my knowledge) 1,000 troops quartered next to the Kremlin in support of Vladimir. Anyone on any side feeling frisky knows that they are there. Smart money has those with an eye to moving up establishing cordial if low-key relations with him.

As for the other name I mentioned, Aleksandr Nevzorov, he was/is an opposition leader and general pain in the ass to Vladimir. Journalist, politician, and for me a bit of a character; but, he’s a character who has survived assassination attempts and more. He is one of several politicians who had to flee Russia to save their lives because of their opposition to both Vladimir and the war. Given Russian society, they can never go home as they will be killed as they do so. Never mind the fact that he’s been found guilty of various crimes and sentenced to nine years in prison in absentia. I’ve found his videos to be interesting, both informationally and stylistically. His youtube channel is here, and this video (English captions) from Ukraine News is eerily prophetic. I hope he stays safe as I think Russia needs some of the wisdom he offers.

Hope to get to more of the questions tomorrow.

Update, Plans

Okay, quick update and a bit on what I hope to get done this week. I doubt there will be a “real” post today, as I really need to go run some errands, including those I didn’t get to do on Friday because the car died yet again.

Yes, it died on the interstate on the way down to the mechanic. Yes, another fun and large towing bill. Mechanic and I both think something else is going on as the new alternator died. It was not only under warranty, but he didn’t charge for labor since it had been on less than a week. The latest alternator isn’t really doing as it should, which makes me almost scared to drive the car. Joy.

Used car prices are still insane. Looks like another six months or so before they even start to drop. Only way to get anything close to reasonable is to buy from family or friends. I can’t do that right now, so have to keep putting money into what I have.

I’m also still waiting on my taxes, and hoping things won’t be too bad. For a number of reasons, I have to have someone experienced do them and it has been well worth the cost as they have saved me many times their fee. Just wish I knew where I stood this year.

Not sure why, but the joints have declared war on me the last few days. Weather is actually good, but wondering about the barometric pressure since my right wrist decided to go out last night when turning over in bed. Joy.

I took the good Friars of St. Anthony’s Basilica up on an offer, and submitted a prayer that I be shown what I am supposed to be doing, where I am supposed to be doing it, and that I be granted the means to do both. They are praying for me and my intentions this week, and I invite all to do so as well. Have the feeling I need to be moving soon. Will see.

My plans for “real” posts this week include looking at some of the players in Russia who are jockeying for the top spot, plus a post on some of the ICBMs and such, in response to a request in the comments. Hope to do more, and really do need to get back to work on Preparedness Pays.

More soon provided both I and the car make it through the day.

NOTE: Not sure about the car, but for a number of reasons don’t think this is a good day for me to be out, or make major decisions.

NOTE II: Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

John Wick 4, A Longer Take

Yesterday, I did a short and sweet review that basically said go see it. Today, I want to do a more detailed review and get into at least one area of memetics central to the series and particularly this chapter.

Let’s start with no real spoilers. The acting is superb.

Clancy Brown as the Harbinger is amazing, and while not in the film quite as much as I may have liked, his appearances are critical on several levels. So much so I would be tempted to say that this, not his role in Highlander, is the role he was born to play.

The nuanced and deep performance by Lance Reddick as Charon is fitting for his final role, and a reminder of the amazing talent lost with his death. He will be missed.

Bill Skarsgård plays the psychotic, arrogant, and slightly foppish Marquis almost too well for comfort. There is a fine line in playing such a character that keeps it from becoming either farce or failure, and it was walked with the grace of a tightrope artist. To stay away from spoilers for now, I will simply note that while there were only five or six of us in the early show, there was a distinct hissing heard when he came on screen.

Donnie Yen as Caine was outstanding casting. To combine absolute menace and deadly skill with comedic elements takes a deft touch. Yen appeared to do it with ease. His role, from action to some rather deep philosophical moments, is critical to the film. Without risking spoilers, the introduction of the blind swordsman/assassin meme to the movie was a brilliant stroke. I did, for a moment, flash to Usagi Yojimbo and am glad Yen did not have to utter the line ‘Why does everything smell of pine?’

Hiroyuki Sanada is not as well known to U.S. audiences as he should be, in my opinion. Again, another very good performance that combined excellent acting with amazing action.

The movie also introduces Shamier Anderson to a much wider audience. His character, Tracker, is both ally and enemy to John Wick at different times, and is very well played. The scene where Wick has to decide between shooting him or shooting the evil minion about to kill the dog is classic. I hope to see a lot more of Mr. Anderson in the future as he deserves a larger audience.

Also, I want to commend the performance of Rina Sawayama as Akira. While she is no stranger to the camera from her work as a singer and entertainer, this is not just her first major movie role, it appears to be her first movie role period, and she did it beautifully. Her chemistry with Reeves, Yen, and Sanada in particular is a delight. Maybe a bit more later.

Finally, we have Keanu Reeves. So as to not get into spoilers yet, I will simply say that he plays the weary, world-weary, and determined character to perfection, showcasing the many sides of the character with an excellent, even understated in parts, performance.

And while I should note the performances of Laurence Fishburne, Ian McShane, and others, I will simply say that if I took the time to go into all the actors/actresses who gave a good performance we’d be here quite a while. If there was a bad performance, it was lost somewhere in the hundreds of evil minions of the movie. The cinematography was it’s usual fantastic success.

Given what happened with Rust, I will note one final element I loved before moving on. The times I looked for it, I was pleased to see both trigger discipline in use (particularly by Mr. Reeves) and that the actors were indeed “cheating” their weapons. By that, I mean that while from the camera angle it looked as though they were pointing directly at another actor, they were not truly doing so. One of the many reasons I’ve enjoyed this series is the realism with weapons and tactics, and the commitment to safety.

Oh, do not leave the theatre until ALL the credits have rolled. Otherwise, you will miss out.

Spoilers Ahead

Spoilers Ahead

Spoilers Ahead

Spoilers Ahead

Spoilers Ahead

Spoilers Ahead

Spoilers Ahead

Spoilers Ahead

Spoilers Ahead

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Spoilers Ahead

You Were Warned

You Were Warned

You Were Warned

Yes, John Wick is a live action comic/manga in many respects. Great action and escapism! Larger than life action and adventure.

Yet, it is also a series that takes on a number of tropes and memes cultural, literary, and even religious. It is one of the things that gives it depth for those who see and understand those memes. Some of the religious seem to be based on Orthodox theology, though traditional Catholics can hum the tune.

One element to those is crucial to the series and especially to this movie: the tale of the good man. The good man who must decide where he stands, what he stands for, and what he lives or dies for. Throughout the film, we see John Wick strive to be the good man. He left the life he had known for love, only to lose it. He is drawn back into his former life by the loss of love and hope, symbolized by the death of his wife for the first and the death of the puppy she sent him for the latter.

Throughout the films, he has been told that the killer is who he truly is, and is all he will ever be. In this film, this is almost brutally driven home in a not terribly subtle way. Both bad guy and even some “good” guys delight in telling him that this is all he is, and he should accept that. It becomes the true struggle for the character in the movie, as he sees and learns the consequences not just of his presence on those he counts as friends, but even what his mere existence can mean for those in his life. In the former, it is what happens to Shimazu and Akira because of his presence. In the latter, it is the death of family member Uncle Pyotr, who was executed for his actions earlier in the movie. The look on his face when he learns of this is telling of more than shock, but a growing realization of where he is headed.

Throughout the movie, we see John Wick grow more and more tired spiritually, even as physical damage takes its toll. We are also treated to a great deal of foreshadowing about both him and what his actions can accomplish. The Harbinger warns the Marquis of the ultimate consequences, more than once, though the second time is very explicit. If the Marquis triumphs, the current order stays. If the Marquis fails, it means the end of the High Table as John Wick will, in terms of this universe, become a saint-like figure to those under the table. As such, the High Table’s power will be broken.

In addition to that, we see some of the theological struggles at play. Wick prays for and talks to his dead wife in a Church. When asked by Caine if he thinks she hears him, he replies no; but, he could be wrong so does it anyway. This is playing out part of that meme, of the good man who has lost his way, who thinks he deserves hell but prays for his wife in heaven/to be in heaven. Who is right, him or Caine who believes there is nothing after this life?

We see this continue in the attempt to climb the stairs and the fights along the way. Allegory doesn’t begin to describe this, and the fact that non-believer Caine joins him and helps him reach the top and duel that decides all is a masterstroke. BTW, if those are the steps I think they are, I’ve been up them and they are a bear even without all the evil minions trying to kill you.

At the top of the stairs awaits the duel in front of the Basilica Sacre-Coeur of Montmartre. As an aside, it is a beautiful place and I would really like to go back and attend the full mass, as what I did get to see prior to joining the Church was a thing of beauty.

The Harbinger not only officiates the duel, he takes on the role of priest within the world of the Table. Wick must face Caine, who has been chosen to shoot for the Marquis. I don’t want to give away too much, but will say that when the Marquis gets his just desserts, the people in the theatre cheered and clapped even more loudly than they did for the death of his main minion.

Wounded and staggering, John Wick simply turns to Winston and asks him to take him home. Then, following up on previous symbolism with the sunrise, he turns into the sunrise and down the steps. As he goes, he makes his choice and discards weapons and all that go with the life of being the Baba Yaga. Sinking down, he turns and stares into the dawn, and at his wife, and simply says “Heaven” as he apparently dies.

They do keep a bit of mystery going, for all that the King and Winston are seen at his grave, where he lies next to his wife. They tease a bit with the interplay, but I hope they don’t play games with this. John Wick made a choice for the lives of others (Caine and his daughter, his family, etc.) and for his own soul. That sacrifice is key to the movies and to this particular meme within those movies. To toss that away for a cheap stunt later would be a betrayal of the story and to the audience.

There are many memes and tropes in play in the movies, and they give them a richness and depth that far surpass what one expects from a live action comic. I suspect there could be any number of academic papers, posts, and books about them. For me, this weekend particularly, the meme of the good man who has done bad if not evil, who works to make it right, and chooses to sacrifice his life to make right what he has done, who puts his faith into Grace and redemption, is particularly apt. John Wick is not the saint proclaimed, but the penitent who chose Faith.

It is a good ending for the character, and a good point of reflection for us the audience. As for the series, there are a number of opportunities. The true end scene pits Akira against Caine in his moment of true happiness as he goes to his daughter, and what the Tracker chooses to do is an open question. I look forward to that, but hope they leave John Wick to his reward.

The Short John Wick 4

It is well worth going to see. I plan to do a longer review here as soon as I can, but have some appointments today. We will see what gets done.

I have to admit the theatre experience was better than I remember. I went to the early show, reserved a recliner for $8.16 with my senior discount, and had the theatre almost to myself. Only about five or so of us there. If the place had sold adult beverages, it would have been just about the perfect movie experience. That’s the first time I’ve been in a theatre in several years I think.

Meantime, what do you think is the best libation for watching John Wick? Vodka, in celebration of his Belarusian heritage, or a good rye for that combo of smooth and barbed wire that go with the character?

If Interested

For those who might be interested:

A partial list of Anheuser-Busch/InBev brands: Budweiser, Bud variants, Michelob, Rolling Rock, Busch, Shock Top, Natural, Johnny Appleseed, Landshark, Goose Island, Blue Point, 10 Barrel, Elysian Brewing, Golden Road, Four Peaks, Breckenridge, Devil’s Backbone, Karbach, Wicked Weed, King Cobra, and Hurricane. There are others, and minority ownership in a number of companies. Remember, knowing is half the battle. 

This graphic was posted on Twitter and checks out so far.