Space X has become THE launch company for most payloads, and is taking steps that ensure multiple revenue streams beyond launch. If I can work things out, would love to buy a share as a long-term investment. Wish I had been able to go to work for them at the start, as I would probably be a millionaire now instead of on a pension.
In the medium- to heavy-lift markets, Space X really doesn’t have any realistic competition. It will likely be at least a decade before Blue Origin becomes a serious competitor if it ever does. This is less about technology than the management choosing and driving the technology chosen. Let’s just say that in my opinion the management and management direction chosen means that innovation, much less rapid innovation, is not the top priority.
While there are some innovative space companies in the United States, one of the most innovative small launch companies is in New Zealand. Rocket Lab is doing interesting things and is moving from small-launch into medium launch capability. It also just has done a deal that could and should put them on a similar revenue source track to Space X. Go check out Stephen Green’s post at PJ Media on what is going on.
Remember: innovation comes in many forms, and not just in launch or other technology. Success is going to come from innovating multiple revenue streams to support both general operations and rapid innovation in propulsion, launch, and related technology.
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I don’t think Rocket Lab will be competition for SpaceX. It simply is not in that league and won’t be for another 20 years.
What it most likely will be is a competitor to ULA, Blue Origin, and Boeing, the next tier down. It could well be the David that kills these Goliaths in the field of launch vehicles. What is keeping ULA and BO alive is the US government’s need for a backup launch vehicle in case the industry leader’s launcher fails.
Back in the day (2005-2010) the backup was SpaceX, a just-in-case against the big dogs failing. Well, the big dogs faltered. SpaceX became the big dog and ULA and B O became the just-in-case contractors. But as Rocket Lab establishes a track record of reliability and rapid turnaround, it will win the just-in-case contractor instead of ULA and B O.
I can see a scenario where SpaceX does 80% of the Falcon-class launches and Rocket Lab does 20% and the others get iced out. Because Rocket Lab delivers while ULA and B O promise.