Growing up in the 1960s and 70s meant growing up under the threat of a mushroom cloud. The Cold War was indeed a frigid and real thing, for all that it came close to going hot far too many times. Nuclear war, and surviving same, was something I studied and I think I read Alas Babylon for the first time before I was twelve. A high school science fair project was designing an underground shelter that could hold out for five years in the event of a nuclear war. Yeah, I was a little different. Okay, quit laughing, a lot different.
What the kids today call OSINT, or Open Source Intelligence, we called Soviet Watching while the media referred to the people who did it as Kremlinologists. Some worked for the government, many of us did not. I started getting into Soviet Watching in the late 70s, and after a run-in with the KGB in 82/83, got serious about it. Serious enough that my Master’s thesis was apparently the world’s first OSINT directory, The Soviet Watchers. Ended up doing some interesting things with interesting people. Funny story on that here.
While I had loathed communism since third grade because the father of a female classmate was a political prisoner in Cuba, it is fair to say I was far more “liberal” than I am today. I did not like the concept of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), but had to reluctantly admit it had helped keep the peace. I studied, learned what I could, and prayed that one day we would get out from under that MADness.
Then came Reagan, who because of the media coverage terrified me at first on nuclear issues. Some of those interesting things I did caused me to change my opinion of Boss. Despite a close call or two, he was responsible for two things I never thought I would see in my lifetime: the fall of the Berlin wall and an end of the major MADness. Nothing can erase nuclear weapons, and a bit of the MADness remains as a result, but the threat of sudden full-scale nuclear war was pretty much off the table, at least in regards Russia. I’ve been told that Boss regarded it as one of the single best things he accomplished.
For me, there was a huge feeling of relief. No more EWO, gold teams, hot pad alerts, and all the rest. The problem was, there were still bad guys out there, and I’ve long pushed for significant upgrades and improvements in our nuclear arsenal. While the spectre of WWIII no longer loomed, we needed to be able to counter other threats with a flexible range of options.
While we have cruise missiles and related delights, we are still using Minuteman III missiles as the land-based portion of the triad. Yes, they have been upgraded, but there are limits to what you can do. We really needed to move up back in Reagan’s day, but every effort then and pretty much since has been fought tooth and nail. To this day, I wonder how much some politicians and activists were paid by the Soviet Union, and later Russia and others (cough, China, cough).
Allegedly, we will have the new LGM-35A Sentinel showing up this year and replacing the Minutman III by 2029. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Meantime, we have rogue states like Iran stepping up to the nuclear stage, and in China we have a Soviet-level nuclear threat. In fact, in many respects, it is a larger threat in my opinion.
On top of that, we have Vladimir who went where those who have sense feared to tread by making nuclear threats. There are two things at work here. First, the nuclear threat is all he had left after the conventional military was gutted by corruption. I think the nuclear force has been gutted as well, as I discussed yesterday. Second, the demented meat puppet in the White House apparently told Vladimir a while back that he was terrified of a nuclear war and would do about anything to avoid such. Sigh. Leroy Jenkins school of diplomacy.
My world was much less stressful and even happy when I was not having to think about flight times and megatons. OUR world was much safer before Vladimir and the Biden Regency decided to try to out-stupid each other. A pox on both their houses. Problem is, the threat has been made and must be honored. If we give in to nuclear blackmail, as I’ve pointed out a time or two before, it will lead to a far worse and far more destructive situation later.
The world has changed since the major MADness departed. Technology has advanced, and as a result we are not going to have thirty or so minutes to act, for bases on or near the coast (including DC) we are looking at five to eight minutes for a naval launch off the coast. Shades of First Strike.
Sadly, I think we need to go back to the days of hot pads and continuous airborne command posts. We need to update, harden, and disperse. We also urgently need to speed up development of anti-missile systems and bring back an updated Strategic Defense Initiative. We must not give in to nuclear blackmail, but we also need to do all we can to keep us safe and the genie bottled.
But, as I’ve also noted multiple times, the MADness worked only with sane, stable, and competent leaders. Having an insane or unstable leader involved was a terrifying prospect.
Which brings us to the floating blazing dumpster fire that is the Biden Regency; Prime Minister Castreaux pulling a number of interesting stunts to stay in power; Macaroon in France is dealing with protests and riots (mysteriously not covered by corporate media in the U.S.); Xi scrambling to maintain his hold on power; and Vladimir dealing with a war he can’t win and a “friend” who looks to be preparing to try to dethrone him. Add to it GOFOs who couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse, and then there’s the intelligence community… We. Are. So. Fucked.
Smart money would be on updating and improving. In fact, if someone wanted some more detailed suggestions I might even be able to give you something in a day or so. It’s not going to happen, but it’s nice to indulge in fantasy every now and then.
Meantime, I’m going to echo Sarah and say don’t despair. Prepare as best you can, keep your things where you can find them in the dark, and hope for the best. Somehow, we will get by.
UPDATE: Been pondering a bit, and I would add one thing to my recommendation: hold off on regulating space, and let’s get on out there. Elon Musk is right when he says we need to be a multi-planet species. Earth is the cradle of humanity, it’s past time we leave the cradle. Orbital is already doable, the moon can be done if not left to NASA, and Elon’s working on Mars. Be nice to get into the asteroids and make parts of the Island Worlds real.