The 12-Day-War as it is rapidly becoming known was a masterpiece on the part of Israel. Israel not only quickly owned the skies above Iran, but they put special forces on the ground to join assets already in place to do extensive damage to the regime. Even more importantly, they dominated the psychological battlespace as well. Israel literally owned the regime lock, stock, and barrel.
If even half of what is being whispered in the background is true, it was even more amazing than most realize. I suspect, and even hope, that we don’t know the full extent for years. More on why in a minute. Some of the psyops are out in the open: for example, was Qaani killed in a strike, or an Israeli asset who was gotten out in a special operation and is now in Israel? If he wasn’t killed but is missing, he would be well advised to stay missing as there are those in the regime who are convinced he was an Israeli asset and are acting accordingly. If he was and did get out, hope he’s got great security. The fear and reaction by those convinced he was an asset may well be having all the results the Israeli’s could have hoped for. That appears to be happening for others up and down the chain as well.
The U.S. strike using MOPS appears to have worked very well. Ventilation shafts are a cliche in fiction, and are quick to get readers complaining about suspension of disbelief. Fact is, they often are an Achilles Heel to defenses as few want the cost of doing them right. Lots cheaper just to go straight down, no dog legs, no cofferdams, etc. Take a look at the satellite imagery, and pay particular attention to the subsidence in various locations. There are also signs of a hot and nasty fire. As others have pointed out, if you want to know what burns nicely and hot, take a look at the materials data sheet for uranium hexaflouride (and related compounds). As for the “reporting” saying otherwise I simply note that it comes from CNN (and amplified by the NYT, where the Spirit of Duranty lives!) and a reporter who is known to be a mouthpiece for the swamp portion of the intelligence community. I trust nothing from any of those sources until it has been confirmed by multiple reliable sources.
My only concern is that I think it should have been a 14-day-war. Israel was in the process of destroying the mechanisms that keep the mad mullahs in power. They blew open the doors to Evin prison, which is where many political prisoners were kept. They were destroying the Basij and other units propping up the regime. For all that I don’t think we should be directly involved in regime change, I wish that things had continued long enough to give Iranians a fighting chance at it. Even more importantly that the Shah-in-Exile, I am aware of one (or more) groups within Iran that were working for a successful revolution with all the planning that requires. Revolutions without such planning rarely work (most revolutions ultimately fail, TBH) and a lot of needed groundwork has been laid.
Iran is not a normal state. They are a theocracy contingent upon creating their version of Armageddon so as to bring about the return of the 13th/hidden Imam. That they die in the process is simply a cost of bringing about his return. If you don’t know about this, start reading because it shapes how much they are willing to suffer — and to have the people suffer instead of them. They will cheerfully sacrifice the entire country to this end. Of course, they expect that as the elite they will survive and be rewarded, but if needed are at least willing to give lip service to martyrdom.
Which means that what drives most state leadership does not apply here. They really are not subject to the art of the deal in that regard. Already they have tested Israel directly and via proxies. For Israel, it is no longer Oct. 6, and they have to respond with overwhelming force less they be boiled like a frog. One hopes that the White House is up on this, and realizes where we and they are in that regard. We are the Great Satan, Israel is the Lesser/Small Satan, and they are sworn to destroy us both. We must never forget that.
Now, there are some signs the mad mullahs regime is fracturing and may collapse on its own. Good. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch. Again, we should not be directly involved in a regime change; but, we should have no issues taking actions which make such possible so as to eliminate a clear and present danger to the U.S. We stand a much better chance with the Shah and the other group internal who have been planning for a real transition of power and who are well aware of historical precedents (including how unusual the U.S. revolution was to be honest).
As for the sleeper cells in the U.S., I’m honestly surprised we haven’t heard more out of them. Fact is, it’s a given they are here. Now, various raids were recently conducted against some illegal immigrants from Iran, some of who had most interesting pasts. Including one, a sniper, who still had his IRGC ID on him. My advice from previous stands: no definitive intel, but be alert and be prepared. This isn’t over and until the mullahs are gone and the illegal immigrants are removed. After all, the Iranians were only one part of the (at least, IMO) four-plus battalions of military aged males who entered under the Biden regency.
More soon. I’m bouncing back from the exhaustion of Brother Juniper’s and on being tied up on medical and other issues. Meantime, keep your friends and family close, and your things where you can find them in the dark. Be safe and be prepared my friends.
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