Xi Flu – Page 3 – The Laughing Wolf

COVID-19 30Mar20

Again, and again, and again: I can’t stress enough that it is not about the number of cases and number of deaths.

First, we have no clue how many cases there are out there. There could be thousands who never had symptoms or had mild symptoms that were diagnosed as something else. There could be yet more thousands who have it now and are either asymptomatic or with mild symptoms that won’t register with them or doctors. That people have died and will die from COVID-19 is, as with all deaths, tragic; however, while it makes for sensational and panic-inducing coverage, the number is currently well below the flu and a number of other causes of death.

Second, the number is meaningless as each country is reporting deaths differently. Some list everyone who had it and has died. Others keep their death count down by not counting anyone with other conditions when they die, listing instead the other condition. Others are not counting anyone who does not die in a hospital. As such, the aggregate numbers are interesting, but essentially garbage as far as generating any meaningful statistical insight.

So keep in mind as we move ahead, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. We knew early that the Chinese were lying and anything out of China did not reflect reality. Right now, we are seeing that this continues. We are also seeing reporting that fails to share comparable information, using per capita for other countries and total figures here for example.

Based on what reliable data we have, we can generate some ideas of transmission rate of COVID-19; we can generate much better estimations of death rates; and, we can monitor spread and have at least some idea of when it will peak in a given area. Given what we do know from data currently in the public domain, the reaction to COVID-19 seems a bit extreme. Which begs the question: what don’t we know? Is there data, based on national intelligence means, that is causing the rather pessimistic outlook and the continuing national lockdown? One wonders.

Meantime, the data you really need to watch are the number of cases that require hospitalization; and, of those, how many require ICU and/or ventilator support. In terms of overwhelming medical resources, those are the only two numbers that are important. Remember, it is the overwhelming of resources that has had such horrendous outcomes in other countries. So much so, that in addition to Italy, England is now rationing health care to those most likely to survive.

The FDA has finally gotten around to granting emergency use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine to treat COVID-19. There are now multiple studies showing the effectiveness, which continues to track as close to 100 percent as possible. Italy and England are now using it as well. In yet another installment of why the FDA has continued to make the situation worse, read this.

Now, back to statistics and meaningful out comes. There is one other number that is going to be important, perhaps even the single most important number of all: who has had it, fully recovered, and is therefore immune. These are the people that can safely leave lockdown and get our economy going again. Who can expand critical services, and bring less critical back online.

The problem is, we don’t have a clue to that number. The key to getting good data fast lies in the ramping up of testing. American industry is rising to that challenge, even coming up with better and faster tests. As the President noted early on, when finding out the CDC was the bottleneck, widespread testing is crucial to having a better understanding of what has happened, is happening now, and to getting out of lockdown. As Professor Karol Sikora noted on Twitter, this data will be a huge part of fighting COVID-19 and ending the global lockdown.

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for at least two weeks without pay.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NO. HELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 29Mar20

This morning, I want to get a bit more into protein crystallography, vaccines, and why lockdown until vaccines are developed just won’t work. Meantime, my usual reminder that the mainstream media coverage is detrimental to the physical and mental health of you and those you love. Don’t give in to the deliberate and willful effort to incite panic and spread false information.

Vaccines have come a long way since cowpox and Jenner, or even the work of Pasteur. Part of that advancement is that we now have ways of studying the microbes down to a level where you can see the individual atoms that make up the subject of interest.

Proteins are the building blocks of life. In the case of some microbes (bacteria and viruses), they can be described as the building blocks of death. Understanding the structure of any protein helps scientists figure out what it does and how it does it.

One way to do so that I am most familiar with is protein crystallography. In simplest terms, you take a protein and grow a crystallized version of it. In most cases, there are several forms that can grow out of any single protein, so you have to isolate the particular structure that is needed. The crystals are usually grown in a drop of liquid that contains the protein, growth medium, and other factors related to the crystallization.

Once you have the crystal, you stabilize it and put it in the path of a “bright” (powerful) X-ray source and use sensors to record how the beam penetrates, doesn’t penetrate, or scatters. With a crystal of sufficient size, you can literally map out the physical structure down to the placement of the individual atoms. This data is then converted into a visual image of the protein in question.

Some of that imagery is quite spectacular. When I worked for NASA both times, I worked with the staff at the UAB Center for Macromolecular crystallography. At that center, they could and did grow crystals, on the ground and in space (which offers quite a few advantages, and analyze them. They had a system that could use that data to create a 3-D image that allowed you to examine the structure in detail, even rotate or isolate sections at need. With that information, treatments could be developed that would bind only with the desired target, allowing drugs to be developed that were more efficient and had fewer (or almost no) side effects.

What does this have to do with vaccines? For modern vaccines, everything.

To design a modern vaccine, you have to understand the structure of the organism against which you are vaccinating. First, all organisms mutate over time. Certain structures, however, have to remain the same or the organism is no longer viable and dies off. If you can identify those structures that can’t really change, you can design either a treatment that binds to that site; or, you can develop a vaccine that does the same thing to prevent it. For example, HIV had what was considered a high mutation rate which hampered development of vaccines. I know of at least one experiment that flew on the Shuttle to grow crystals to help identify the areas that could not change in order to develop a vaccine. Sadly, I don’t remember that effort being as successful as hoped. My memory is fuzzy, but I seem to recall that in the time available the crystals could not be grown to a useful size; but, again, my memory is fuzzy.

Again, understanding the structure is critical, as in many cases, you only want certain antigens or even a single antigen (a substance that produces an immune response by the body) to teach the body what it needs to fight against. When the vaccine is given, the antigen(s) in it cause the body to think it is being invaded and to develop an immune response that attacks the full/real pathogen when it enters the body.

Protein crystallography is one means of identifying the structure of a pathogen such as COVID-19. I know of one effort to use protein crystallography on COVID-19, and suspect there are more. So, between protein crystallography and other methods, targets for treatment and vaccine development can and have been identified.

For those wanting something more than this rather simplified explanation, may I suggest this paper, this paper, this paper, and this paper as starting points.

Now, we get to actual vaccine production. Despite the problems with the accuracy of information from China, we have genetic and structural information that identifies target antigens for vaccine development. These have to be isolated, grown in the laboratory, and then normally they would be tested on animals and then humans. The normal FDA approval process for drugs and vaccines has be circumvented, and the first of what will likely be several vaccines is now in human testing. Even with the shortened process, that still takes time, as in weeks to months to see how it works. If it does work and does not need refinement (this is where later vaccines will have an advantage), we can start giving it out, right?

Wrong.

Going from creating what could be as little as a few ounces needed for initial development and testing, you now have to manufacture hundreds, or even thousands, of gallons of a product that requires multiple stages to create while ensuring the highest possible quality. Even variations of the antigen being used have to be removed in many/most cases. Ramping up production will be a time consuming process. Again, we are talking months even with best case on development, production, and regulatory approval. In short, I think we are looking at somewhere between six to ten months in a best case scenario. I hope I’m wrong, but as noted before, you always plan for the worst, hope for the best, and take what comes.

Six to ten months in national lockdown is not going to work. The disaster that would be for the economy, not to mention to civil liberties, can’t be overstated. I can’t think of any rational person of any political persuasion who will stand for that.

Now, the above is greatly simplified. As above, if you want to know more about modern vaccine production methods, I recommend you start with this, with this, with this, this paper is a must read, this paper, and this paper. If you read those, I think you will better understand how miraculous both the current technology for studying things like COVID-19 is and the breathtaking pace shown in getting the first human trial underway. It literally could not have been done twenty years ago in my opinion, and quite possible even as little as ten years ago.

For those who want to know more about the work done at the UAB Center for Macromolecular Crystallography, I commend to you both what may still be available through NASA relating to Shuttle missions, and the papers and talks by Dr. Lawrence DeLucas, Charles Bugg, et al. For those who want to know more about the efforts to prevent paralysis from spinal cord injuries mentioned yesterday, you should look to the works of Borgens, Shi, et al at Purdue University.

Thus concludes today’s lecture. Yes, I have simplified things so that they are accurate though not necessarily precise. I wanted it on a level that could be widely understood. Hence the links to all the papers for those who want it in greater detail and precision.

Since the media isn’t going to say it, once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for at least two weeks without pay.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 26Mar20

There is huge news this morning, news that may or may not get the coverage it should, both in terms of quality and quantity. In some ways, it is not unexpected but is rocking the epidemiological community.

The reason I started doing these updates was that I did not think the story was getting the coverage it should. One of the things I do is look at data and spot patterns. I did not like the pattern I was seeing even before the mainstream media started paying attention. It was clear something was going on; that it was far worse than China was admitting based off what data could be obtained; and, it was also clear that China was flat out lying with the data provided. It didn’t take much of a dive into Chinese social media (or into commercial intel) to figure that out.

One of the first places I found that was taking it seriously and trying to model what was happening was the Imperial College of London. Their model(s) were one of the first efforts to identify, chart, and project and I, like many others, linked to them and used them in our analysis.

This morning, I awoke to the news that Neil Ferguson at the ICM has revised, yet again, the projections. This is the third pivot, and while a lot of people are going to be castigating him, I’m not yet prepared to. For while we knew the data from China was incorrect, it was all we had. The problem is, in any model, that when you put garbage in, you get garbage out. GIGO applies today as it always has. While I did consider his previous advice on herd immunity — a reaction plan quickly dropped by the government — was idiotic, it was to some degree understandable.

The short version for those that don’t follow the link: it’s bad, but both the UK and the US should have enough beds and capacity to handle what is to come. It will get very close in some areas, and a few may hit capacity, but the death toll will be much, much lower. Seriously, go read the article.

Here in the U.S., I suspect that NY and California are going to be our two major hotspots where this may not hold. The unconscionable actions of DeBlasio in NYC in the early days have made a bad situation catastrophic. Previous decisions by him and by Gov. Cuomo pretty much guaranteed they would not be ready to handle something like this. California, well, much the same boat. It is anecdotal for now, but the countries and areas that had tight government controls on, or socialized centralized government healthcare, have faired the worst. An interesting point for debate sometime soon.

This news is going to change our response as well. Again, I will point out that we had to plan for and initiate a response based on worst-case until we had enough accurate data to understand the situation. We are now getting accurate data in amounts that will allow that, though we won’t have a truly clear picture for weeks. However, we have enough to begin considering options while we watch what transpires between now and the end of the 15-day period.

Also, I will admit I was wrong about masks. I did not think they would be effective under the circumstances we thought we were facing. The fact is, there is now evidence that if everyone were to wear surgical masks (and if we had them for people to wear them), it would slow the infection rate down. Note: just wearing one yourself won’t do a lot of good. This will only work if everyone wears one. A bit of anecdotal data on this is here. Again, the problem there is that we would have to have them, and right now we don’t.

There is a lot to learn from what has happened/is happening. There needs to be some serious and intense debate about it, and we need to massively overhaul and update the CDC and FDA — including trimming out the major mission creep in both and returning them to their original and vital functions.

Again, ignore the media and the breathless fixation on cases and deaths. Do not give in to the panic they are trying to create. Yes, as noted before, cases are going to spike both because of transmission and the rapid expansion of testing, which will generate a false spike as existing cases are confirmed. Yes, sadly, people will die but the number is going to be far less than most other causes including the flu.

As I noted yesterday: “What are the numbers to look at? First, what is the number of patients requiring treatment in a hospital. Second, what is the number of people requiring treatment in an ICU? Third, what is the number of patients who require ventilator support? You might be surprised at the age ranges of those needing ICU and/or ventilator time, as a surprising number of them are NOT in the at-risk range.”

Once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Pipe Puffer (cigar and pipe) regular hours for now

Schoolhouse 7 Cafe

WIBC’s list of local

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 25Mar20

First, if you are depending on the mainstream media for accurate and useful information, you are endangering your physical and mental health. It is not about how many cases there are, what celeb or leader has it, people having to change their wedding plans, or how many have died. The media has both a monetary incentive and an agenda-driven incentive to stoke panic. Remember, if it bleeds it leads, and this is an industry that has been hemorrhaging viewers/readers and revenue for some time now. Don’t give in to bad info and deliberate efforts to incite panic.

Second, the number of cases and the number of deaths really don’t matter right now. The number of cases (as has been pointed out here, in the task force briefings, and elsewhere) are spiking for two different reasons.

One is spread. The other is the expansion of testing, and I suspect once testing ramps up and really gets going we are going to find that it is far more widespread than the current numbers show.

The other is that testing is escalating (despite the FDA, who once again has played bureaucratic roadblock to an effective response). As more tests are used, and don’t have to be saved for bad cases, the number will go up. Most of those are going to be with people who were asymptomatic or had minor symptoms.

What are the numbers to look at? First, what is the number of patients requiring treatment in a hospital. Second, what is the number of people requiring treatment in an ICU? Third, what is the number of patients who require ventilator support? You might be surprised at the age ranges of those needing ICU and/or ventilator time, as a surprising number of them are NOT in the at-risk range.

The whole purpose of the lockdown is to slow the rate of spread, so as to avoid overwhelming the medical system as has happened in far too many countries. Go do a quick search on the number of countries that are refusing to treat people 60 or up, or otherwise at high risk of death as they no longer have the ability to do so. It is scary, and more than one are First World countries.

That said, we have a new set of numbers to start watching this week: those being treated with hydroxychloroquine, by itself or in tandem with other drugs. Here’s a fairly good read on the testing results in France and the U.S. Here’s a link to the French research paper; a link to a Chinese research paper; and, an interview with a U.S. doctor who has treated 350 patients with great success. We should be getting more numbers, and a better assessment of effectiveness, very quickly.

As a quick aside, if you need yet another example of how run-away bureaucracy has hindered an effective response, the CDC was advised in 2005 that Chloroquine was effective in treating coronaviruses. Either they didn’t make a note, or didn’t care. Yet another of why the CDC and FDA need a major overhaul and to be refocused on their prime missions. Here’s a link to the paper.

Once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

There are a lot of good stories out there about people helping others, particularly those who are on the front lines. A front line that has grown to include grocery clerks, truckers, people in logistic centers, and more. Note that it is the “working stiffs” who are keeping things together for us all. Take time to thank them, and do something for them if you can.

What happens now depends on what happens with the treatments. The lockdown can’t continue. It is destroying our economy, and posing a serious danger to our civil liberties. What is needed is a plan to return the country to “normal” or what passes for it. President Trump has said such is in the works, though it is evolving and will evolve based on how things go. Frankly, I think that sharing even a bit of the plan, and emphasizing there is a larger one even if evolving, will go a long way to helping stop the panic and growing anger.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc. Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc. Not many actually do it, but…

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Pipe Puffer (cigar and pipe) regular hours for now

Schoolhouse 7 Cafe

WIBC’s list of local

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 23Mar20

This one will be short, as the current breathtaking abrogation of their sworn oaths by one particular group of politicians has me beyond livid. I will #RememberInNovember who put their own venal self-interest ahead of the Republic and the lives and well-being of its Citizens. At least Clyborn was honest about seizing the opportunity (or can a Democrat pounce?) to “restructure things to fit our vision” A pox on them all.

Second, I remain agnostic about whether this is a natural or man-made virus. That said, I am taking the latest study being trumpeted in the media with a tun of salt. The Chinese have bought far too many academic institutions, and academics, for me to trust anything that comes out right now that exonerates them. Wait and watch on this one, and remember that there are at least two academic papers out there (hopefully now in peer review) that say it is man-made.

Third, glad to add another business to the local businesses to support section. If you know of other businesses that should be added, drop me a line here or on Twitter to share info.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Pipe Puffer (cigar and pipe) regular hours for now

Schoolhouse 7 Cafe

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 22Mar20

For what I am sadly sure will not be the last time, please stop the panic. This is not Captain Tripps though it is also not the flu. Food will be there, the system is catching up, slowly, to the idiotic panic buying of the last week or so. Just stop it. Sit back, chill, and THINK.

For what I am also sadly sure will not be the last time, THE NUMBER OF CASES AND DEATHS IS NOT WHAT IS TRULY IMPORTANT! These numbers are being used, knowingly and willingly, to incite panic and overreaction. Don’t be a chump! While I feel for, and pray for, those who have it and those who will die, the death numbers in the U.S. are going to remain well below that of the flu and any number of other things. If we are smart, and I’m beginning to question that…

The numbers that count are: 1. The number of cases requiring ICU support, and the percentage for that appears to be well above the normal flu; 2. The number of cases that require ventilator support, and again, that number appears to be well above that of the normal flu. And, yes, COVID-19/CCP virus is not a flu, that’s part of the problem (and a reason those comparing it to the flu are stupid). These are the numbers that have overwhelmed health care systems in multiple countries. These are the numbers that concern doctors and others associated with maintaining our healthcare.

And, yes, our numbers are spiking. Why? Testing. Testing that is becoming (far later than it should thanks to the bureaucrats) not only more widely available, but even faster (and hopefully more accurate) tests are starting to ship. Do we have enough? No. But, since the red tape got cut, the numbers have been ramping up even faster than first projected. Don’t believe me? Look it up, the numbers are there for those who will look and think. The spike we are seeing is a good thing. Don’t believe me? Read this. It allows us to isolate people and locations as needed, not via mass shut down of society, a move that is dangerous. It will enable a better and more effective response.

For those focused on age, a side note that you may want to look at this story. Interesting.

If you are still getting your information from the mass/old media, please stop it. They are deliberately inciting panic for both revenue (readers/viewers/listeners) and for partisan political objectives. Don’t believe me, then go read this, this, this, this, this, this, this, and this. The sad thing is, I could probably link to three times this number of posts and fact checks. If I were still a member of any journalism organization, I would be resigned from them in protest and disgust. The even sadder thing is that far too many either don’t care or don’t believe that the media is lying even when confronted with facts. Emotions trump facts for far too many. It’s almost enough to make me wish that this story was true.

For anyone who believes anything the Chinese say, or are joining in on the whole idiotic raaaaacccciiiiiissssst bullshit, read this. One of the reasons we had to react strongly is because we could depend on any information from China being wrong, in fact, a lie. If you want to have some fun, look at the number of mainstream media outlets who are pushing Chinese propaganda and the racism bull who have also taken money, large sums of money in fact, to print/broadcast Chinese propaganda. That’s an interesting (and scary) bit of homework for the students. Want something interesting if a bit scary, read this on how what the media is trumpeting is a lie.

While I haven’t gone through all the numbers, this report is interesting. As we start to get real and accurate numbers, expect to see a lot of revisions to models, reports, and such. Also keep in mind that, as I and others have told you, no matter what our death rate is going to be far lower than China’s (and Italy, Iran, etc.) per capita for a variety of reasons. There are differences in public and private health and sanitation systems, industrial and personal hygiene, air pollution, cigarette smoking rates, population age and health, and a few other factors.

There is a lot more I could get into, but I feel like dreck this morning and would much rather go cook on my two weeks off without pay from my part-time gig. Yes, we had someone stupid come to work sick, insist on getting up close and personal (and shaking hands) with almost everyone (not me, I tended to keep away from them for other reasons), and then deciding they had the flu. Allegedly they were tested, but I don’t think the results could have returned in the time frame where they announced this person had the stomach flu.

To cut it short, I asked my doctor if I should continue to work the part-time gig and was immediately asked if I needed a note. I’m still getting used to being considered “at risk” for a number of things, and don’t really fully agree I am (then again, my mind still tends to think of me as being 20, though the body just laughs), but decided I really didn’t want to do true COVID-19 first-hand reporting. If you care to help me out, hit the tip jar please.

What I may start spending more time on are the good stories coming out of this. Of people pulling together to do something constructive and positive. One such story is about Hotel Tango and Cardinal Spirits (Bloomington) making hand sanitizer. Hotel Tango is a place I recommend you go when they can reopen: outstanding and interesting drink menu and veteran owned. Or this story, one of several, on companies and people stepping up to the ventilator shortage. Shortage? Pah. Get the bureaucrats out of the way, stand back, and watch it disappear as American ingenuity and exceptionalism get unleashed. Holds true for other areas as well. Hope to see more stories like this, where a landlord waived rent so a restaurant could pay its employees.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.

•My Amazon Wishlist

As always: