Russia’s efforts to focus on the Donbas and the Southern front are proving interesting. There are a number of reports coming out that if they are indeed true, could well mean that Russia’s new offensive will have even more problems than the attempt on Kyiv. Hoping to learn more over the weekend.
If it is true that Gen Dvornikov has taken over command of the offensive, brutal will take on an entirely new meaning. Check his record in Syria (and before) He’s already been linked to the rocket attack on the evacuees. Mostly women and children? No matter, besides they aren’t as likely to fight back and inflict casualties.
There are reports that Russia is going to mobilize 60,000 reservists. Desperation play, especially given that they have taken horrendous casualties and a large number of units are combat ineffective because of losses. More on this next week.
As for Vladimir attending the funeral with the “football” at hand? Great theatre and preys upon the Biden administrations fear of starting WWIII. It upsets the neighbors too, which is more than half the point. It was a bit of psyop just to poke back at the people who have been poking him and now his family.
Now, some food for thought with a different twist. I can talk about Russkiy Mir until I’m blue in the face, and share insights all day long. I can continue to point out that we have a world without a single major power having stable leadership. Below are two presentations dealing with demographics that, while I don’t agree with some of his conclusions (he apparently believed the Ukraine would fall and fast), there is a LOT of good information there.
And, yet more info and some additional thoughts on ag and more
Some people I know on social media have been talking about ag issues for some time now. Jake Freivald has been on this one for a while, noting that it could get interesting here but will be devastating elsewhere. Linking to a couple of his citations: a look at the fertilizer crisis and problems with our winter wheat crop. There is already an impact in Europe, and it’s likely to get worse. We will adapt and overcome. Most of the world’s farmlands outside the U.S. have to have fertilizer, and lots of it. China, Russia, and the Ukraine will not be exporting this year. This is going to be devastating.
If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
Second, Trent Telenko makes an excellent point on targeting. The Ukraine would be stupid to go after thanks and such with the new drones. So far, they’ve avoided that. Let’s hope they continue to fight smart.
He also has a message for the flags in the Pentagon. It’s an old one. I once got to be a part of upgrading computers at a military installation, one that almost got someone courtmartialed. We pulled it off, and while we couldn’t get everyone up to what the corporate world was doing (had to do a bunch of it as non-PCs because of contract, at least we got rid of the 8″ floppy discs), it was a huge step up.
Chew on this food for thought for a bit. There is more to come.
If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
There is at least one post coming later, but for now I’m buried in paper and paperwork. I’m actually going through all the paper that has accumulated since I was hit by lightning, getting it sorted, and setting up two new plastic file totes to handle all of what I am keeping.
What I’m not keeping is significant. I shudder to think how many trees died in vain to make paper to be wasted by bureaucrats with mandates. The amount truly is staggering. The amount I’m having to keep just in case is staggering. May be buying a vertical file or such tomorrow to hold test/medical orders so I have them in one place and in order. Glad to say that amount is decreasing, but I’m still giving the vampires some business.
More soon.
*****
If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
One of the things making it a possibility is that we may finally have the blood pressure coming under control. Instead of me running around in the 175-189/99 (or higher) range, we have it consistently under 140/90 and may even be on track to a consistent 110 (or less)/80 range. Jury is still out on that, but it is nice to not have to worry about stroking out. At one point, before the open-heart surgery, it was well above 200/100. The only good news from all this is that I likely don’t have any aneurysms simply because if I did, they would have already blown.
Sadly, we may not get to do the cognitive therapy that we would like to do. Insurance turned down the first application for it, but there apparently was an option for the provider to appeal. Would love to do at least some of it…
I was very lucky on several fronts, particularly on the cognitive side. There was no physical damage. While there are some cognitive issues, they seem mostly to be in one area and while some of the data is scrambled, so to speak, a lot of it should shake out over the next three years. Getting on out West will help with that, since the weather changes do have an effect on more than just the body.
The warmer, dry climate will help body and mind. If you don’t want to use the GiveSendGo site, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right. Everything helps, and with your help we can push this along and get me on out of here.
I’m linking to this scary video again, because it is important. How important? Go read this from Trent Telenko to see how the corruption has effected operations and casualties. It is also going to hamper upcoming operations, and, yes, there is more coming. If you doubt it, go read this from Kamil Galeev. Then, note the multiple reports of supplies and troops being stripped from elsewhere to go reinforce the troops getting ready for “secondary” operations in the East/Donbas, and the South.
Vladimir needs, not wants, needs a victory. What he has now, no one important sees as a victory. There are a number of pressures at work here, and the absolute need to have some major victory by 9 May is more intense than many here in the West realize.
Given the fecklessness (and general incompetence) of the Biden administration, he could gain a victory via any peace process that involves the U.S. He could also get it by the “De-Escalation” faction within the Biden administration which, sadly, I don’t think is as dead as Trent Telenko does. All they have to do is keep dragging their feet on delivering the supplies already promised and the Ukraine won’t make it. They need everything we’ve promised, and more, if they are to beat back the next offensive and/or continue to hold out. Some of the tactics used this time (flooding, for example) won’t work again.
Vladimir also needs a good excuse to do more than what has been stated as being the next stage. He needs a series of provocations to resume operations against Kyiv and the greater Ukraine, provocations the Ukraine is unlikely to give him. I would expect to see an escalating series of incidents that are maskirova for that purpose, and if they also opened the door to WMD it would not be surprising. In fact, I am afraid that is exactly what is being planned. Especially since he is having massive trouble getting troops that will fight into place, getting troops replaced, and getting the supply situation as fixed as it can be fixed. I would say that to fix it, and fix it well, he needs weeks to months; and, he does not have that. That limits options.
In a somewhat related issue, I feel there are missing pieces to the puzzle around Roman Abramovich. When he first started flying around, pushing peace and such, I admit I thought he was doing so with Vladimir’s blessing. After all, it would not hurt anything to have an unofficial conduit out there that could be used no matter what. This despite the fact that I felt Abramovich was one of the oligarchs that he was accusing of treason, of being too Western and wanting to live in the West rather than in Russia. In fact, using him as an unofficial contact would make a lot of sense in terms of the great game. Besides, Abramovich doesn’t have a reputation for being stupid and anyone who did what he did without Vladimir’s open or covert approval should know they have put a target on their back.
Then came the poisoning reports. Maskirova or real? From some things that I’m picking up, it is looking like it might actually be real. If I were Abramovich, I would not only be significantly upgrading my security (and adding radiation detectors to my homes, boats, and dinner service, along with tasters), I would not return to Russia. Parts of this still don’t seem to fit, and it will be interesting to see what happens in the days ahead.
There are multiple reports of the execution of civilians and various massacres coming out now that Russian troops are withdrawing. Do I expect to see a lot of Ukrainian (and Western) propaganda on that front? Indeed I do. Does that mean such things have not happened? No, because they truly have happened. The FSB does have kill lists, both of individuals and of various types/positions, that are to be eliminated. Period, dot. The FSB doesn’t blink at murdering hundreds of Russians at a time, why do so many persist in thinking they will have any compunction about killing hundreds or even thousands of Ukrainians? With all that is happening, they don’t really make a distinction between civilian and military, for both are resisting operations and being brought into Russkiy Mir. That makes them all the enemy, and if you are the enemy (foreign or domestic) then you should be eliminated. It is an old-fashioned mindset, and one far too many Western academics and “elites” can’t seem to wrap their heads around that they believe it and will act upon it. It’s just not how things are done! Grrrr. While salt will be needed a good bit with the reports to come, don’t dismiss what has happened out of hand. There are some nasty things likely to come out.
Given all, particularly the out-of-date supply chain and the need to strip so much from elsewhere, I expect to see Vladimir throw everything but the kitchen sink into the fray. I would almost be unsurprised if he didn’t try to revive a modern successor to the old KGB troops who ensured that Soviet troops would move forward and attack, or die in place. The pace is and will be rushed, as there artificial time constraints that are a factor. It will be an attempt at quantity to overwhelm, and possibly special weapons to overcome any issues that can’t be taken care of by quantity.
What the Ukraine has, however, is a united spirit that is amazing. I’ve written a bit about it before, but Michael Z. Williamson has shared something that if the intelligence agencies East and West were even remotely competent, would have change the assessment of what was going to happen years ago. Here’s the video he links.
For now, the Russian military is retreating and in disarray in several areas. The Ukraine should be digging in, setting up new traps and means to delay or otherwise stymie offensive operations everywhere. It is a given that barring something completely massive and unexpected, the Russians will resume offensive operations and those are not likely to be limited to the “official” areas listed.
For all that the U.S. and the West need to tread carefully, the promises made to the Ukraine on supplies need to be met. Without them, they will fight and die gallantly, but Vladimir will take the territory. Holding it is another matter, but he can and will take it. With the supplies, however, and proper preparations, the new offensive can be stopped as well. Mayhaps those preparations should include nuclear preparations as well. Maybe tomorrow I will go back and pick that thread up from a previous post.
Meantime, I’m hoping this week is a time of review, evaluate, and otherwise appreciate the lowered tempo of operations. Enjoy it while you can, for no one knows how long it will last.
If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
In terms of my previous comments on maskirova and what we might see before Vladimir goes nuclear, I’m noting with interest the attack on the fuel depot in Russia. Russia blames it on the Ukraine. The Ukraine swears they didn’t do it. Interesting. If we see an escalating pattern of such attacks, odds are it is maskirova and Vladimir is going to up the ante one way or many ways.
In the least surprising move, Roscosmos has announced it is stopping cooperative efforts with the West, including on the ISS. The only people this might surprise are a few at 300 E Street who’ve had their fingers in their ears and have been humming for all they are worth.
Given the problems with the Russian module that went up recently, I’m not sure it is a loss. Even without that, it still may not be all that much of a loss. If NASA will accept Elon’s help, they may find themselves in a far better position. If Jeff Bezos will actually get around to producing engines and such as promised, instead of lawsuits against his competition, we could see a new golden age of research and exploration in space, including private space stations that could eclipse the ISS in terms of capabilities. We would all benefit from true corporate competition in space.
It would appear that Russian troop movements are not necessarily tracking with their public statements on what they are doing. Big surprise. I’m also watching some of what is happening in Georgia, as they watch, learn, and evaluate in light of Ukraine’s efforts. The damage to Russia’s prestige and the myth of the Russian military are going to have ripple effects far and wide.
If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
It is a quiet morning in many respects, but I also have miles to go and promises to keep this day. So, while it is quiet, I will answer a couple of questions.
Who do I follow or read regularly, particularly on Russia/Ukraine?
What would I expect to see if Russia were to use nukes?
First, I would expect to see the massive cluster fuck that are current operations dealt with to some degree or another. It does no good to open holes if the troops aren’t able to take advantage of them. Though, at this point, use out of spite is not something I would put past Vladimir.
Second, expect to see some form of maskirova. Reportedly, dirty bomb materials allegedly disappeared from Chernobyl while the Russians controlled it. As I noted a few days ago, they have no need for such but what if those despicable Nazi Ukranian’s detonated a dirty bomb against brave Russian troops (cough, wheeze, sneeze, /sarc)? In the heat of combat, they might not use (much) maskirova. As things are now, they need at least a fig leaf of being the victim though few will buy it.
Oh, there are multiple reports that the Russian troops that were at Chernobyl have left because of radiation poisoning. If they were indeed told to dig in at the Red Forest, count on several hundred troops dead or so sick that they will likely never be fit for combat (or much of anything else) ever again.
If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
Is Vladimir getting good and accurate info in his briefings? No. Next question.
Seriously, the reports that he is not being told of reality should be unsurprising. He has special ways of dealing with those who disappoint him, which can even include their families. As such, if you think those who brief and advise him are being bluntly honest about things, I have a bridge for sale…
As for the reports that he and other leaders/oligarchs are spreading out to various bunkers, again, are you surprised? Forget the nuclear threat, there is a real and valid concern for Vladimir and those around him that efforts will be made to remove him — permanently. He’s been doing the whole “guess where I am” thing for a while, moving around at random to cut down on the odds of assassination.
Part of the problem with building that golden bridge so he has an out (that Biden has effectively nuked) is that Vladimir himself has created a good bit of the problem that faces him and others: failure equals death. In fact, those that have failed him (and/or the Rodina in his mind) have more than earned the gruesome deaths given them. The problem for Vladimir is that the precedent has been set, and he knows what HE would do in that situation to the person stepping down. To him and even unto his family.
For all the estrangement with family, and even with former mistresses and potential children, I suspect there is some concern there for what would happen to them. They are his blood, and that comes with a price. It would be one thing if the new administration went after them for money which he has used them to hide; but, such things rarely stop there.
This is the way things used to be before the great experiment that is the Republic that is the United States of America. Even the “normal” passing of a kingship from father to son could be fraught with peril. When it wasn’t normal, the bloodshed was often stupendous and the families of the loser faced slaughter and slavery. The idea was to destroy not only the person at the lead, but any and all legacy including genetic.
Which brings me to Donald Trump and the derangement of the left. Granny Wine Box of the family Venal just couldn’t put away her kangaroo suit after two failed impeachments, but brought about the January 6 farce being played out. Add to it all the different investigations (which have largely found nothing and gone nowhere) and efforts to destroy Trump and his family, and you have an end to the cornerstone of the Republic: the peaceful transition of power.
It is being made abundantly clear that any who oppose the so-called Elite will be destroyed. Between cancel culture, interference with banking, malicious prosecution and sentencing, and all the other things we see being touted in the media as just and proper, the peaceful transfer of power is dead. It will start with the courts, as each administration is tried and found guilty for crimes real and imagined. It will end in bloodshed.
In the past, even when it was clear that someone had broken the law, there was a reluctance to prosecute after they left office for fear of damaging that cornerstone. Today, the cornerstone is being hit by gleefully wielded jackhammers in an effort to destroy the personification of the threat to the Elites. That they still fail to grasp that Trump was between them and the threat says much.
Of course, like Vladimir did, they fail to grasp that they will be subject to the new rules and not exempted from them. What is happening right now with Vladimir is simply the normal version of the world in many respects, and the logical extension of destroying your political opponents. It is where the efforts now underway will lead if we let it.
If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
I can’t get too far into efforts to ensure the reliability of our systems, but will note that you do have to test systems both as a whole and in parts. For example, solid rocket motors can develop cracks and fissures over time, especially if they are not properly stored. Just look back on the need to X-ray the remaining Inertial Upper Stage (IUS) solid motors after they were stored. The other type of testing is to actually fire the motors. I will say that you might enjoy checking out the Arnold Engineering Development Center AEDC site as it is (or was) the free world’s most comprehensive testing site.
Even with stringent quality control on manufacturing and thorough testing to determine lifespan and other issues, there are going to be failures large and small. It’s not just in movies that someone forgets to pull a pin or a weapon jams or fails to fire — it is real life. There’s some video out there of a mortar crew scrambling for safety after round “bloops” and basically falls out of the tube right in front of them.
While I won’t get into what Glenn was told about our systems, I would not be surprised at all on the figure given for the Russians, and given what we are learning about Russian maintenance, it could be optimistic. Like him, I have no desire to find out who is right. Keep in mind that their strategic launch system (Dead Hand) is dependent upon a system that will launch every time (and that we need to take out in boost phase if it does launch)…
I am also reminded that back too many years ago, when I first got into Soviet Watching, the Circular Error of Probability (CEP) for some of the Russian missiles were measured in miles, not feet or yards. CEP is a measure of the precision of the weapon, be it artillery or a missile. The more precise the weapon, the lower the CEP. Because they could not match (at the time) the precision of our missiles, they used huge warheads to try to make up for not being able to be sure of hitting the target directly. It was as our CEP improved that we could move into Multiple Independently targeted Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs) making use of smaller warheads that were more effective.
Precision and reliability are one reason bombers are still a thing.
Legal Insurrection has a very good story up, which includes a link to a 2021 commentary by former Russian MP Nevzorov, who got right what almost every intelligence agency got wrong. I urge you to go read the entire article, but I am going to embed the video as it is positively scary on several levels.
Vladimir, Biden, and a host of others were unprepared for the amazing unity of the Ukrainian people this time around. Nevzorov wasn’t, he saw it last year. Two good reads on the unity and the intelligence failure are linked as food for thought.
As for Vladimir pulling back, don’t count on it. Redeploy and prepare to resume operations, I can believe. I can see him focusing on the Donbas for a bit, but you better believe that the “redeployments” for that are also designed to let him build up and try for Kyiv and the Southern Front again as soon as possible. If he truly were pulling back in a move to help bring about peace, I would expect to see different movements. He’s not about to give up now. Also, the admonition not to eat or drink anything at the peace talks is a very good idea.
As for Biden, his cheat sheet and double-down have gone well beyond being unhelpful. From them, it is clear that regime change is desired. Even if it is not, there is no one, anywhere, who doesn’t believe that it is at this point given the verbal spewings. Especially Vladimir. Rather than try to find or create an offramp or offramps, this administration has decided to blow any potential such structure off the map. The results of that are not going to be good.
By the way, if you are not reading Stephen Green’s work on what is going on, as well as his other writings, you are missing out. Vodka Pundit is a must read, and don’t just go with what he posts at Indy.
If you like what you are reading, feel free to hit the tip jar in the upper right or the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your help and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.
