Shall We Play The Game? – Page 3

Ukraine: Outcomes Pt 1

To be honest, a lot of the ‘oh my goodness this needs to happen or we’re all going to diiiieeeeeee’ reeeeing I’m seeing is annoying. To be polite. It’s almost all about emotions and using emotions for partisan political near-term advantage. There is almost nothing long-term being considered in the hysteria. There is almost no basis in fact, history, etc. being presented. So, let’s take a minute or ten, and take a look at the situation as it exists, possible outcomes, and the dangers of each.

As I’ve said before, history rarely truly repeats itself but it sure does seem to like to rhyme. There are a lot of people trying to push a 1930s/Nazi-era take on things, particularly a Chamberlin/Churchill analogy with Vladimir as Hitler. Facile, but it does have elements of truth to it. Though it would have held up better if not for Vladimir’s effective annexation of Georgia and previous invasion of elements of Ukraine.

Though one can find some parallels going back to the Greek/Asia Minor wars, some far better analogies can be found in both sieges of Vienna (and what led to them) and the 30-Years War. That said, I think the best analogy to the current situation lies in the 1912-1914 timeframe and what led into World War I. The web of secret and open treaties, alliances, partnerships, economic networks, ambition, corruption, and out-of-touch and incompetent leadership class focused on maintaining the lucrative status-quo (for them) is a far better framework for understanding today. There are books to be written on the topic, but for now we hit just some high points.

Russia, aka the Russian Federation, is a huge territory rich with resources, and without the ability to effectively extract or process them. That this is a self-inflicted wound is not acknowledged by the Russian government or people. The system is corrupt beyond the belief of most of those in the West, leadership or general public. The inability to grasp that the Russians are not ‘just like us but speak funny’ extends pretty much to every segment of leadership not just in the West, but the world IMO.

Russia is allied with Belarus, which has a number of historic implications. For all that they are allies, there is a lot of contention given that at one point the leader of Belarus was, according to some, considered as the supreme Russian leader so as to fully integrate Belarus with the new Greater Russia, aka Russkiy Mir. Geography also makes this important to Russia in regards re-absorbing the Baltics and Ukraine into the new Greater Russia.

The next most important ally for Russia right now is Iran. Two pariah states, they are linking banking and other systems as they don’t have anyone else to lean upon. Both have ties to Syria and other countries, but only Iran has the arms and manufacturing (and ports and a few other things) that Russia needs. That Iran, like Russia, is heavily dependent upon technology from the U.S. and Europe that just happens to conveniently get by sanctions (cough, cough) is a point worth noting.

The third most important ally right now is, of course, China. China is not first because whatever Xi the Pooh may wish for, neither Vladimir nor others in leadership are stupid enough to fully trust or become dependent upon China. They are closer to that than they like as it is. Not being stupid, they know very good and well that if China sees them go down or get weak, there is a lot of disputed and not-disputed resource-rich territory China would love to have. Territory that it can be argued that Russia only nominally controls.

The fourth is India. India is a wild card in many respects, but do not underestimate the ties that have been cultivated by both sides. India has needs with which Russia can help, including an escalating border dispute with China. Again, this is just the high points and you can write a book or books on this situation and each of the alliances.

While not an ally per se, you have North Korea in the mix. While reports of weapons sales to Russia may or may not be accurate, they have supported Russia and to an extent Vladimir. Wild card, but a most interesting one given both nuclear and missile capabilities.

Now, those are the open and acknowledged things. If you think there are not clandestine treaties, agreements, and alliances in place, again I have that bridge for sale. For purposes of this exercise, treat them as a given. Treat it also as a given as that some are going to be a surprise when and if they come out.

Now, let’s look at Ukraine to get a better idea of some of the players involved on that side. I think it worth noting that there is a difference between the concept of “The West,” NATO, and those supporting Ukraine in its resistance to being invaded. In fact, I would treat NATO as a fractured entity at this point. In fact, there is a pretty large schism between those who were a part of the USSR at gunpoint and the original NATO members. The newer NATO members have a very different take on things, to be polite.

Now, keep in mind that when Ukraine became independent again, it agreed to give up the nuclear weapons on its soil as the U.S. and others agreed to safeguard and defend them. Such guarantees were given.

It is worth noting at this point that all prior Russian invasions, of Georgia and Ukraine, occurred under the Obama/Biden administration. The response of EU leadership to those is worth noting as well.

Now, the primary ally of Ukraine is the United States. The U.S. provided security guarantees and more, and has been a trading partner. U.S. and Ukraine business and other interests are heavily entwined, to be polite. There are a number of impolite things I would like to say, but we will leave things here for now.

While NATO and the EU are allies (de facto or de jure) of Ukraine, it is worth noting that such is not evenly reflected by the position of major member countries. The United Kingdom has been a good ally on many fronts, as have a number of the former USSR countries. France has been middle of the road, and for some reason the word opportunistic pops to mind. Germany has not been a good ally, but given how German leadership (corporate and political) climbed into bed with Putin and Russia on energy and other topics (cough, techtransfer, cough), it is not surprising. Again, I could say a number of impolite things, but will not do so at this time.

The web of alliances, treaties, agreements, and such — open and covert — put those of 1914 to shame. They cover not just Europe, Scandinavia and such, but most of the world. Keep in mind that economic alliances are likely to be much more cohesive and strong than military or political ones.

Now, don’t forget the Asia/Pacific area. While not necessarily allies to Ukraine, Japan, Korea, and other countries have been following things with a very close eye. They not only have Russia as a neighbor, and an interesting history, but they also have China, who is being very aggressive militarily and otherwise. They have North Korea who is aggressive (to be polite). The levels of aggression are such that Japan has taken steps to boost its defense capabilities and alliances. Nor is Japan alone in doing so. Again, open and covert treaties, agreements, and alliances throughout the region.

To close out today’s post, let’s take a quick look at so-called key leadership around the world. Remember, preventing war depends on stable, informed, and intelligent leadership.

In the U.S. we have the Biden Regency and the demented meat puppet. A regency that is shedding some interesting members. In Canada, we have PM Castreaux (nee Trudeau). The United Kingdom has Charles and Sunak. Germany has Scholz, France Macaroon, and the EU is a mess of bureaucrats. Russia has Vladimir who is having medical and political challenges. China has Xi, who faces serious challenges from within and without. Japan has Kishida, and frankly he may be the most stable politically of them all. Korea has Yoon Suk-yeol. North Korea of course has Kim.

Stable, competent, reasoned, intelligent leadership. Lord, your mercy on us all.

The above is an honest prayer. For we do need mercy and guidance now and in the days ahead. Where we are now makes 1912-1914 seem simplistic. Tomorrow, more on outcomes and risks.

UPDATE: Thanks to Rich Lowe for pointing me towards this excellent examination of Biden and the Biden Regency as Carlos II. Robert Oscar Lopez does a masterful job of comparing the two, and the comparison is far more apt than many will care for. The War of Spanish Succession had far-reaching consequences, and what is happening now will have far-reaching consequences for the Republic and the world as well.

Drunk Vladimir

Actually, I suspect that he is drinking on top of medication, but… Check out this interesting video from Dmitri on Twitter (who does some excellent work BTW).

Notice the typical, well they did it first excuse. Remember, Russia is never at fault and never did anything to deserve being attacked, maligned, etc. It’s the thing that has me keeping an eye on events given yet more recent nuclear saber rattling in the guise of talking about how they won’t be first but also won’t be second.

I agree with the ISW that there is no current sign that they are contemplating the use of nuclear weapons, and that the talk is just that. As I noted the other day, if it is true they have removed nuclear warheads from ALCMs to use them with conventional warheads against Ukraine it is a huge story. No confirmation yet, but am looking into it. Meantime, we do know they have a shortage of precision weapons. Modern war uses up supplies at rates well above beancounter plans, as in ten months of war has used up years-worth of MANPADs, Javelins, etc.

More as it develops

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Russia Update 9 Nov

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There really isn’t a lot new to update. The only change from the previous is that there are more signs that Vladimir is facing some serious opposition, but nothing (yet) that could take him out of power. The jousting for position continues, and it is hard to tell what is simply securing the best position possible versus trying to get in position to make changes.

Remember, if it doesn’t happen in Moscow, it doesn’t mean a thing. There is the St. Petersburg caveat, but…

The one thing that has come up is a reminder from Kamil Galeev that the invasion of Ukraine and all that is going on has little to do with international relations from Russia’s point of view. The invasion stems from domestic politics, not international. It’s very true, and is something to keep in mind in the days ahead as international takes are going to have to deal with domestic realities when dealing with Vladimir and Russia.

If the military situation shifts in the occupied territories, then I expect to see some more open shifts within Russian domestic politics. Absent that, I expect to see things continue to bubble away under the surface as no one yet wants to make a true public move.

I will note that Vladimir and company have continued to go low-key on the nuclear rhetoric. Not sure if this is because of internal pressures, external pressures, or that secret talks are giving him what he wants. I reiterate that giving in to nuclear blackmail will have worse long-term consequences.

Meantime, if you want a fun little read, this article on Moscow shelters is actually quite enjoyable. Don’t laugh at the fact that one former shelter is now a tourist attraction, as we’ve done the same with at least one of ours. My thanks to Robert Hopkins on Twitter for the link.

Oh, yes, no sign of shelters being stocked outside of Moscow, which seems mostly for show. Same as before. Also, yes, Stalin had the subways put deep for a reason. He also had portions made truly beautiful and while they are no longer good shelter, at least the last time I was there they were still quite beautiful.

Frankly, since our national leadership is not going to step up to the task, I wish more state and local leaders would take steps to bring their shelters back online or build new ones. The threat of nuclear issues (war, deliberate meltdown, etc.) is but one of the reasons having those shelters available is a good idea. They can be useful in a variety of non-nuclear situations as well. Having them available also serves as a deterrent to those thinking nuclear war, terrorism, etc.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

A Most Interesting Speech

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As I noted yesterday, I spent some time listening to Vladimir’s speech and digesting it. To be honest, I also was looking for/waiting for some other things I suspected might be coming.

Meantime, it was also amusing to watch some of the very predictable coverage of the speech. The alarmists/click-baiters fastened onto his comment about this being the most dangerous decade since the end of WWII, predictably. More on that topic in a moment. Those who missed a lot of message and context referred to the speech as “boring” or “deluded.”

On the surface, the speech was predicable, plodding in some respects though it appeared Vladimir went off-script in a few places (interesting in it’s own right) based on the translator’s reactions. On the surface, yet another recitation of the justifications for Russkiy Mir and the subsequent invasion. I’d say that at least 95% of the canned speech was aimed at the internal audience, though if it reached useful idiots abroad, great. I’d say less than 5% was aimed at the non-Russian audience.

From an outside viewpoint, the majority of the speech could be described as delusional. In fact, after a couple of points, I noted on social media that I could have sworn that I saw his nose grow. Yet, in terms of his intended audience, it was not delusional though it might be aimed in part at encouraging delusion on their part.

Between it and the parts of the Q&A I got to hear, the speech was a reminder of all that led to the creation of Russkiy Mir. Russia has always faced enemies, Russia and the Russian people have been done wrong time and time again, with outsiders (particularly the west and noticeably emphasized in the speech was Great Britain) treating both like Crystal Gale was done in so many of her songs. Russia has always been the victim, never the aggressor. Vladimir, that offspring of the working class, scion and defender of the Church, faith, and all that is good and right (note all the discussion of transgenderism, wokeness, and related), has been elevated not merely to defend Russia but to save and advance it.

Keep in mind the memetics of this (as well as the work of Gramsci and the huge amount of Gramscian damage in the West). Russia is a very different culture from our own. Always has been. To better understand that and the historical roots of same, please read Kamil Galeev on Twitter or the Threadreader App. Keep in mind that within that culture there is an ongoing fight between those who are Slavophile versus those who feel Russia should look to the West and adopt Western ideals. Right now, the Slavophile element is in control, and the last full leader of the Western view (such as he was), Gorbachev, is now dead and buried.

Logic and reason have a place in Russia, but not the pride of place it (allegedly) has here in the West. Mythology, if you will, can and does matter more in swaying public opinion. Just look at the recent assassination of the daughter of “Putin’s brain” or philosopher. That it was most likely (IMO) an FSB operation that really was intended to get him and her, but just getting her worked too within the politics of the day. Yet, it immediately became the tale of the virtuous Russian maiden, slain by treachery and deceit by a vile female Ukrainian Nazi. Full state funeral to emphasize the tale. How did it work? Outside of Russia, only a few useful idiots bought in. Inside Russia? Not as well as they would have liked. Reality, in the form of casualties and costs, limited the effect of the myth.

Which brings us back to the speech and the Q&A. Note how Vladimir started the speech, with discussion on ecology which he emphasized by noting that many might be surprised he started with it. That was something aimed at internal and external audiences, and many missed it. Instead of the normal lashing out at the West, Vladimir talked the need to conserve, preserve, and improve the environment large, and called out the small as well. In the entire speech, look at what was not said, not just what was said and in what order. The subtext to the speech was intended for several audiences, and I hope they were paying attention.

Ignoring some of the expected and predictable memetics, I will say Vladimir was not wrong about this being the most dangerous decade since WWII. We are entering a period that has the potential to make the Cuban Missile Crisis and other close calls of the Cold War look like child’s play. The old order, and old major powers, are failing. The Ukraine has ended Russia’s hold on the status of major military power, and exposed the rotten core within. China’s desperation may yet lead it to try to invade Taiwan, but even as it prepares to do so, it too is stumbling. In the West, the so-called rule of experts that hit its peak after WWII is falling. Anyone who thinks any power, or those who have wielded power for so long, are going to give that up easily and willfully is deluded. Given nuclear weapons and more, I’d say the case can be made that we are entering the most dangerous decade in the known history of humanity. It is not going to be a fun or easy ride, no matter what.

Again, note what he didn’t say in the speech. There was effectively no bluff, no threats, even almost an avoidance of direct talk of the war. It was not truly brought up until the Q&A. Now that got interesting, and again much of this was aimed internal, not external (save to useful idiots). The idea that Vladimir and Russia have NEVER threatened use, only hinted, was part of a well-laid campaign. Note how he brought up the threats from the British, which is going to play well in some quarters. The Slavophile dislike of the Brits showed through, just as it has throughout the invasion. Worth noting that they’ve gone after Great Britain more than they have the U.S. by a good margin. Leaving aside the hapless Truss, Vladimir was almost gentle in pointing out the threats of Biden. Which, given that the demented meat puppet and his incompetent Regency have chewed their shoes with their feet still in them almost continuously, is something.

Not sure what it says that I laughed along with Vladimir at the Khruschev comparison, but again note what wasn’t said along with what was said. No direct threats, though he invited all to read Russian doctrine on nukes. An emphasis on the threats incoming. The dirty bomb and nuclear plant discussions were interesting. Much wasn’t said, and how it wasn’t said was interesting indeed.

Which is why I was unsurprised to read this. Is it an opening? Maybe. Between the speech and a variety of reports I suspect that if a graceful way can be found to take the nuclear serpent off the table, though not out of the room, there would be interest in so doing. The question is if what it would take to do so is something everyone would be willing to do. It also depends on various leaders having the sense and counsel to realize an opening is there and not suffer the usual hoof and mouth disease.

Are we in any way, shape, or form out of the woods? Fuck no! At best we might have an opening to start discussing finding a way out of the woods. Are the Russians continuing with their pathetic (by outside standards) attempts at maskirova via dirty bomb? Yes. The fact that no one outside of Russia is really buying it doesn’t matter, that is aimed internal far more than external. Is the use of nukes, chemical, and other still a part of Russian doctrine, the same doctrine Vladimir invited one and all to read? Yes. Which means it is still very much on the table.

The key on all for now is the Donbas. Vladimir made that very plain yesterday. From historical claims on up, the Donbas now is at the heart of the issue. Which is why I say that what Vladimir wants may not be acceptable to all. What is needed for “peace” was made very clear by Vladimir yesterday. Which means that on the one hand we may have an opening to standing down the nuclear viper, and conversely we are in even greater danger than before. Now we know for sure the physical location of the schwerpunkt, and have a better idea of the philosophical schwerpunkts in play.

And yes, despite yesterday’s speech I still think that if Vladimir can’t have the Donbas (and the whole Ukraine), he’s perfectly willing to ensure no one can. Formally, for all he seems to have provided an opening, no option was truly removed from the table.

Before I close, be sure to watch his hands and legs during the speech. Telling. It seemed to take more out of him that he wanted to let on. Excellent make up job, even better than normal. Hmmmm.

Between this and the diesel situation (along with others) here, if you can, redouble your preparations, particularly food. Please hit my fundraiser so I can pay bills and do so as well. Stock up, hunker down, and let’s pray for the best.

*****

If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo or drop me a line to discuss other methods. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Cover Versus Concealment

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In this post the other day, I brought up two topics for future discussion. Lifeboat Rules was the topic yesterday, and I really do urge people to share it and think about it. If we have a major disaster, not just a nuclear war, we will have a new and different form of “lost generation.”

Today, I want to talk briefly about the difference between cover and concealment. I want to do this because many of the posts of late have been aimed at those late to the concepts of preparedness and nuclear war. Many such have no connection to, or participation in, old Scouting (my thoughts on modern Scouting another day) or the military. While this discussion is only partially germane to immediate nuclear survival, it’s some useful information to have both in general and for later.

Concealment is simply avoiding observation. It can be as simple as putting objects between you and potential observers, or as complex as camouflage. When I say objects, I mean everything from ridges and buildings to trees and shrubs. When I say camouflage, I mean anything from a ghillie suits and/or face paint to large camouflage nets or more.

Now then, there are good reasons to use concealment, if possible, after a nuclear strike. First, you may want to hide that your home or other shelter is both useable and in use. It’s the quick and clean way to avoid those not-nice folks as well as others that even if nice will push your shelter over capacity. When and if you go out, you may want to use it to both avoid any not-nice people in the area and to avoid advertising where you are located. Depending on where you are located, it may be a moot point — or it may make the difference between staying relatively peaceful and secure or having to defend yourself.

Cover is something that protects you from incoming fire. It may also conceal you, but the main point of cover is the protection. Cover is everything from piling dirt or sandbags in front of basement windows before the blast, to putting solid objects in place to bar unauthorized entry to your shelter. Putting up items to block radiation is also technically cover.

Thing is, you want and need both. Concealment means you can be overlooked or missed by the not-nice no matter the disaster. Cover can help protect you from the disaster itself, as well as give you a secure position after. For a quick example, sandbags can help prevent flooding in floods or damage in a nuclear blast, and then help protect you and yours, as well as the structure involved, after.

It’s never too late to start thinking about such, and about what you have around you that you can use to improvise cover and concealment inside and out. Just one idea: books can and do act as cover from radiation and a variety of small arms rounds. Of course, if you shoot my books be happy if just shoot you and make it quick.

Further discussions are the advanced courses, though I will note that for individuals, between clothing and paint, the idea is to break up your outline so that the brain doesn’t recognize it as human. Again, advanced discussion for another day, but a bit of knowledge that may prove useful.

BTW, don’t know who did the meme above originally, but my hat is off to them. It’s been used in this context, for political memes, and probably more. It’s also true. Race really may have been the first to teach me that. 🙂

*****

Lifeboat Rules

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In my post the other day, I brought up a couple of topics for later discussion. For a number of reasons, I want to bring up first the concept of “lifeboat rules.” This is a concept that few today, other than some older people and/or veterans, understand. Failure to understand will, in many cases, be a death sentence.

Back in the old days, as in even unto the 1900s, when ships sank (or were sunk) passengers and/or crew took to the lifeboats. Each lifeboat had someone who was designated as its leader, effectively the captain of that boat. The rule of that leader was (and is) absolute. They might have to answer at some later point for their actions, but during the emergency they had the absolute, and fully legal, power of life and death over everyone in the boat. If they gave an order that was not obeyed, they could kill the person refusing or have others do so. They could, if they chose, instead put the person over the side with or without any aid(s) or provisions. They could, if circumstances allowed, maroon them on whatever land offered itself.

This was all done to try to ensure that as many as possible survived. In the days before GPS, extensive search and rescue, and other positive joys of modern life, being in a lifeboat could mean weeks or months at sea. So, the captain of the lifeboat rationed stores, oversaw efforts to catch food and produce potable water, erect such shelter as possible, create sails or other means of locomotion so that the boat could steer towards hopefully hospitable islands or land, etc. People who refused to abide by the rations, refused to try to help catch food, refused to do whatever was needed to get somewhere safe — they were (and are) a direct threat to the survival of all. Each person had a responsibility to themselves and to all in that group. If they failed of it, then they were killed outright or exiled and likely died as a result of that exile.

While it still holds for lifeboats today, many people don’t realize that pilots have much the same authority. One of the more interesting discussions when earning my license involved not only my authority, but my responsibility to prevent anyone from using the plane of which I was in command to do something bad with it. Pilots can, either on their own or by order to others, cause you to be disabled or restrained. In the event of an attempt to seize the controls, they can kill you. Now, as with the lifeboat captain, they will at some point hopefully have to answer for all they’ve done, but the law is almost overwhelmingly on their side.

In today’s world of sensitive snowflakes for whom individual responsibility is an antiquated concept, where improper pronouns being used is unimaginable violence, and who have never truly lacked for a thing in their lives the very idea of lifeboat rules is a foreign concept. It is a concept that needs to be understood now lest it result in your death and/or the death of those with you.

If I accept shelter with someone else, and agree they are in charge, then I have to abide (within reason) their decisions and commands. If I disagree with such, then it is my obligation to leave, no matter the circumstances as to do otherwise is to challenge their authority and potentially put the survival of the larger group in danger.

Now I note, within reason: obvious psychosis overrules normal agreements. In an emergency, it also overrides normal civil law because of the immediate danger of irreparable harm or death. The word that applies is “justifiable” in such cases. That said, engaging in strict rationing, strict protocols, or making you actually stand watch or such, those things are not psychosis no matter what you may think. They are an attempt to keep as many people alive as possible.

If you are of a younger generation, you need to understand: in an emergency of the magnitude of a nuclear attack, be it in a shelter of some sort or a group traveling towards safety, the situation is not a democracy, it is not a representative republic, and unless you have knowledge and/or experience that directly relates to emergency at hand, no one cares what you think or feel. Unless your input is directly solicited, it might be a good idea to stay silent, listen, learn, then speak only if you have something relevant to add to the conversation.

I guarantee you that if you continually question, challenge, and encourage others not to obey the orders of the person in charge, one of two things will happen.

First, if you are lucky (or have really PO’d the person in charge and others), your rear end is getting tossed out the door or left behind on the side of the road or trail to make your own way. If you are lucky, you have a shot at survival. If the environment is extremely bad, well, it’s a very nasty way to die. That’s not just from radiation. Keep in mind there are likely to be some very not-nice people outside being kept at bay by those inside or in the group/convoy. If you are lucky, they will kill you quick.

Second, instead of tossing you out, you will be killed. Period. Dot. Given that your actions threaten the survival of all, not unwarranted or extreme. You need to understand that NOW. Not later.

If you find yourself in some government shelter or camp, hope and pray that it is under something like lifeboat rules. Otherwise, what you encounter may be far worse than being outside the wire.

Understand that it is not wrong, evil, or fascistic to demand that you follow the rules and do your part to ensure the survival of all. It is neither the time nor the place for temper tantrums, acting out, being petulant, or trying to impress others with your knowledge of class struggle. It’s a time for hard work, for digging in and doing the best you can, and otherwise being a productive member of the group so everyone survives.

If you don’t know this, please learn this now: in a true emergency, to fuck up is to die. It doesn’t even have to be done by the people with you. You open the airlock door without checking the indicator, you are dead and others with you. You decide to do something to show everyone it is perfectly safe no matter what anyone says, well, that almost never works out. If you go outside because it is so pretty and there is nothing obvious going on, well, fallout and radiation don’t exactly advertise. Those cute animals you see? Guess what, they’re hungry.

Listen, learn, and live. Particularly if you are new to things nuclear, to preparedness, and to surviving after a major disaster. When someone uses the term lifeboat rules, know what that means and know that the people involved are not kidding around. Your life, and the lives of those with and around you, depend on it.

*****

Nuclear Oz

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Only this time, Toto wasn’t needed to draw back the curtain as the Russians never bothered to close it in the first place. Interesting being able to see the illusion they are trying to peddle (mostly to an internal audience, but also to idiots abroad) while watching the reality.

No, not really too concerned this morning about the reports from Russian MoD about the readiness of their CBRN units. Nor am I too surprised at the Sunday morning talk show push (in Russia) or the calls by Shoigu to various leaders around the world. And I’m definitely not surprised by the groundwork for false-flag operations being laid.

First, remember that we are supposedly in the middle of their annual nuclear preparedness exercise. If so, no surprise that the cream of the crop of the CBRN units are ready to put on a pretty picture. Real question is if it is a picture of reality or just another Potemkin Village. There are reports (and conjecture) out there that their true readiness for such is on par with their uniforms and other equipment thanks to rampant corruption.

Before I forget, I’m laughing my fuzzy fluffy rump off at the stories coming out blaming all problems on theft by individual troops. This has been covered a bit before, but after Putin sacked his generals (all but two) and even some higher ranks and gave the positions to oligarchia to loot, things got so bad that small units and even individuals did indeed start stealing equipment and such simply to be able to eat. Want to know if a story on this is out of the Kremlin directly or indirectly? If it focuses on the individual troops stealing, and ignores the higher-level corruption, it’s a Kremlin production no matter the masthead.

Second, the push on the false-flag/maskirova items, along with all the phone calls, is fairly simple. I agree with the ISW that a lot of it is intended to slow down or stop deliveries and other support to the Ukraine. If the Ukraine can be isolated to any degree, it will help Russian efforts. If it works to any degree, expect to see a lot more of it. That said, they truly are trying to set the stage, particularly to the internal audience (and the brain dead external) that it was all the dastardly Ukrainian Nazi Scumbags and not the sweet and innocent Russian troops and leadership. Cough.

For reasons I won’t fully go into at this time, I remain concerned that if things don’t go well, Vladimir will go after every nuclear plant in the Ukraine in an attempt to damage the country and destroy it by other means. Again, they may attempt some maskirova and engage in false-flag operations, but there are those in Russia who feel that if they can’t seize the Ukraine, then no one — especially the Ukrainians — should be allowed to keep it either.

Now, in regards the list of false-flag/maskirova, one thing to keep in mind, this isn’t the first time they’ve done this. Syria is but one example. If you have the time and patience, and go back into the Cold War, the same was done at different times (usually a time of tensions) so that if there was a war, they would already have the pretexts in place for escalation.

So, I find things concerning, but nothing more than that at this time. In fact, some of it is sadly predictable. There are some things I am going to watch for, and if I do see them, then I will be worried. Until then, simply vigilant.

For those on Twitter, I am on there as LaughingWolfOne and if you are looking for good sources of information, try my Intel list. There are a couple on there that I would highly recommend, as while not 100 percent right (no one is) they have a better track record than several of the three-letter and related.

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If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Preparedness On The Fly: General Thoughts

For all that I’ve tried to keep these posts on an introductory level, it’s not always possible and worse yet from your viewpoint if you’re new to nuclear or preparedness, there’s a heck of a lot of information. Easy to miss some things, so I want to bring a few things up to the front.

First, if you are reading this because you are rightfully worried about nuclear war and have never done any form of preparedness before, some advice. Don’t get overwhelmed, take it a bite at a time. Try to do your preparations so they work to enhance your life in non-disaster times and cover a variety of other disasters as well.

Second, if you have a question about this, about rational preparedness, or the concepts being explored in my hopefully-to-be-finished book Preparedness Pays, ask. There are stupid questions; however, yours probably isn’t one of them. If you are thinking of asking it, know others are probably thinking it too. Do them and yourself a favor, ask.

Now, on to some other things that I’ve said, meant to say, etc. One of the sucky parts of getting hit by lightning is having the short-term memory of a mayfly. May they be right on it eventually healing in a few years. Anywho, onwards.

Buy shelf-stable foods, not those that require freezing, refrigeration, special conditions, etc. When buying canned goods, tuck away a couple of extra can openers too. In the box/area with the canned goods. Trust me.

Buy what food you can, including flour and other grains, and especially things like coffee, chocolate, etc. that are imported. I strongly suspect the food situation is going to get a little too interesting even if Vladimir doesn’t destroy the world in a temper tantrum.

If the button is pushed, go to minimum food and water immediately. Only exception is for food that can’t be saved (refrigerated/frozen for example). Large amounts of vinegar can come in handy on the latter, as you should cook and/or pickle and/or can as much as you can under the circumstances. Vinegar is also a reasonable disinfectant/cleaner/etc.

Buy food and some water filtration/purification gear ahead of anything else simply because of what is likely to happen with food production and distribution regardless.

Protection should be right after food. Remember that I highly recommend three levels for each person: rifle for long-range/hunting, shotgun for medium-range/hunting, pistol for short-range/hunting. Carry edged on you at all times you legally can. GET TRAINING!

One thing I did forget to include the other day is, in addition to whatever else you get, pick up a .22 rifle (and pistol if you can). Great for varmints, good for hunting, a number of uses in survival. Personally, several of us at work were discussing the need to have something tucked away in a vehicle for emergencies that was small, discrete/hidden, reliable, and useful. Idea evolved into a take-down 10/22 in a case with a thousand rounds of ammo. Inexpensive, and good.

BTW, 500 to 1,000 rounds of ammo in one caliber is not an arsenal or whatever other breathless sensationalistic prose the legacy media uses. If you start getting into this, 500 to 1,000 rounds of ammo per caliber is a good day at the range. Or maybe even the start to a good day at the range…

There is no such thing as having too many flashlights or batteries.

Did I talk about radios? Even if you followed some of the discussion in some of the Nuclear-101/201 posts and saved your cell phone, towers and service are probably going to be fracked for a while, possibly a very long time. Frankly, in the event of nuclear war, I expect to see sound trucks used in what’s left of metropolitan areas. Otherwise, think WWII and “This is London!” There are at least two different brands of emergency radio out there that include standard batteries, rechargeable batteries, USB recharging, hand crank, and even solar. You can get one that receives weather, AM, FM, and ShortWave (SW) 1 and 2 for around $40. If you can, get more than one. Oh, you can also use them to recharge cell phones and other devices that survive, including some rechargeable batteries. Useful.

Yes, two-way radios could be useful if you can shield them during so they work after. Problems are expense, range, and the fact that you might not want to be talking loudly and carrying on too much when out. Being able to report observations, issue warnings, advise on your location, talk to other vehicles if doing the boogie, etc. can be a very good thing. You just really need systems (that tend to be more expensive) that allow you to do so as quietly as possible and as hands-free as possible.

Noise and light discipline in the aftermath of any disaster, but especially a nuclear war, is a good idea.

So is the need to set and keep watch, and to be prepared if anything not-nice comes to call.

Sandbags outside doors going up 1.5 feet or more are a great way to block fallout from coming in under doors, and make the doorway an even better chokepoint when and if non-nice types drop by. It is also cover if needed.

Think I may need to do a column on the difference between cover and concealment, and that things that are really good at stopping radiation also work to stop projectiles. Interest?

Under the heading of good things to have around for life, much less emergencies, is a good pressure canner. And lots of jars that hopefully survive the disaster.

When it comes to some people’s cooking, certain foods, and field/emergency rations, hot sauce is you friend. Also, a great source of salt.

When you stock up, be sure to get some pogey bait.

Baby/body wipes are a very good thing to have in quantity if you are going to have to hunker down in a very small area for several weeks.

Also, while super large containers of anything, especially food, seem like a great idea, it also can be a single point of failure if damaged in the disaster. Buying multiple small containers (10 for $10, etc.) increases odds at least some will survive, and offers you items for trade, for being kind, etc. Not to mention portion control, as well as reducing temptation for someone to take just a bit more…

Liquor miniatures work well for medical use (pouring over wounds, etc.), are excellent for trade or reward, and can prevent problems in the shelter if used like the old British Navy rum/grog ration. Staying drunk during and after may seem like a good idea, and tempting a little, but it is a very bad idea.

Understand the concept of lifeboat rules. If you don’t, you need to. Think this is another column, esp. give how some are likely to react.

Wish I could remember what else I meant to cover, but failed to write it down, and so it’s gone. I live by lists, electronic and paper, post-it-notes, and even field note pads these days. Stupid lightning.

Preparedness On The Fly Series

Preparedness On The Fly (Food)

Preparedness On The Fly: Water

Preparedness On The Fly: Light

Preparedness On The Fly: Cooking

Preparedness On The Fly: Gear

Preparedness On The Fly: Protection

Of Interest

Preparedness: Bugout!

Buying Your First Weapon

Start Of All Posts On Preparedness

Nuclear Overview

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Nuclear Overview

Sorry for the slow loading or trouble getting here. Growing pains as I move from regular blog to high-traffic blog. Working on it, feel free to hit the tip jar.

With so many new readers interested in learning about preparedness and all things nuclear, I thought it might be a good idea to provide links to all the Nuclear 101/201 posts as well as the complete (for now) Preparedness On The Fly series. For those digging into nuclear war and strategy for the first time, there is some basic information along with suggestions for learning more. If you are wanting my takes on what is happening and why, hit the Current Events category. Also, some other posts of interest and non-blog resources of interest are included. .

Nuclear 101 Posts In Order:

Nuclear What?

Nuclear 101: Weapons

Nuclear 101: Delivery

Nuclear 101: Now What?

Nuclear 101: Targeting

Nuclear 101: Scenarios

Nuclear 101: Survival

Some Quick Thoughts

Nuclear 201 Posts In Order

Nuclear 201: Some History

Nuclear 201: Will You Be My PAL?

Nuclear 201: A Bit More C&C

Nuclear 201: Additional Thoughts On Coms

Nuclear 201: Targeting, Take 2

Nuclear 201: Scenarios

Nuclear 201: Policy, SIOP, and Escalation

Nuclear 201: Effects

Nuclear 201: Radiation

Nuclear 201: Preparedness

Nuclear 201: Fallout

Nuclear 201: Fair Question

Preparedness On The Fly Series

Preparedness On The Fly (Food)

Preparedness On The Fly: Water

Preparedness On The Fly: Light

Preparedness On The Fly: Cooking

Preparedness On The Fly: Gear

Preparedness On The Fly: Protection

Of Interest

Preparedness: Bugout!

Buying Your First Weapon

Start Of All Posts On Preparedness

Fiction/Other Resources Highly Recommended

Pat Frank, Alas Babylon and How To Survive The H-Bomb And Why

Dean Ing, Pulling Through NOTE: I can’t commend any or all of Dean’s work on preparedness and survival highly enough. And, yes, I really wish I could talk to him right now. Also, if you come across any of Jerry Pournelle’s work on survival and preparedness, good add too though I would put Dean’s work first.

While not nuclear preparedness and survival, John Ringo’s Black Tide Rising series of books are extremely enjoyable (IMO) and provide a lot of very good food for thought for those preparing for any of life’s vicissitudes.

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If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo. Getting hit by lightning is not fun, and it is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Preparedness On The Fly: Protection

No, I’m not talking about the type protection that gets you lectured by your priest. It’s time to talk the third rail of preparedness: protection.

Over the years, several of us took to viewing it this way because this is when you lost people to the whole idea of preparedness, as well as bringing out the mentally-defective feces throwers. In the first case, you had a lot of posturing for politics as well as some truly thoughtful and sincere people who just could not stomach the idea of harming any living creature for any reason.

At least until their children were threatened. More than one such, over the years, has ended up going at something/someone bigger and stronger with nothing more than attitude and teeth when a child or family were threatened, and surprisingly often come out on top.

As for the latter, you have your ‘herf-derf you just want to fight government and you will die’ imbeciles (and that may be an insult to regular imbeciles everywhere), the ‘people are good we should just help each other you killer coward’ types, and those who feel the police and military will be there to protect them. While it is fun to fisk each and every type of idiot who pops up to throw feces, right now I just want to get you some solid information so you can decide what is best for you.

The fact is, in any disaster, there are going to be people that stand up and do amazing good for as many people as they can. Such people are wonderful, amazing, and we would all be the better if there were an order of magnitude more of them. Then, you have what are referred to in some circles as “ten percenters.” These are the people who loot, rape, kill, and more when the opportunity arises. The ones who demand food, water, and more but won’t do a thing to help. It’s a fact of life in this fallen world, and no amount of wishing is going to change it.

Nor is it going to change the fact that police, fire, EMS, military, and others just took the same (or worse) hit that you did. The military was the prime target of the attack, and that may include some National Guard facilities. As for the police and other local first responders, those that survived are pretty much in the same boat you are, and are trying to survive, check on family, and then do what they can to help. They are few in number to start with, and after the last few years with so many leaving in the face of defund the police and other such junk…

So, depending on your location, there may or may not be some organized efforts to rescue, get people out of harms way, etc. Your best option is not to count on such, and be prepared to handle things on your own whether you stay put or decide to do the bugout boogie.

If you stay put, your location represents a safe haven to the no-legged, four-legged, multi-legged, and two-legged out there. If you see giant multi-legged creatures, congratulations as you have just proven a rather abstract theory on reality shifts the hard way. As for the normal such, you need to be prepared for the short-term and the long-term. Which means you need to be thinking firearms, edged, and other as they provide protection from trouble at all times, and may later provide protection from starvation.

Firearms are the most contentious for a number of (mostly) political reasons. I am not going to recommend any specific firearm or type of firearm to you. What I will do is point out some food for thought in the course of which there might be some nudging but I will try to avoid it.

One thing to consider are the laws in your community. They vary, and I will not openly recommend defying them even in the face of disaster. You had the chance to deal with it at the polls before, now you’re stuck.

The second thing, aside from finances, revolves around caliber. You may remember my reference in the first article to “…probably the type Fudd who says you have to have all your firearms in .489 Harambe (or you ain’t s***!)…”. Fact is, most common rifle calibers out there are 5.56/.223 and .308/7.62×51 NATO because military and police use both in their weapons. You will also find a lot of 7.62×39 for AKs, and a variety of .30 caliber rounds of various types. In pistol calibers, 9mm, .45, and .38/357 calibers are in common use. In shotgun ammunition, 12 followed by 20, though there are good arguments for .410 both for availability and for hunting if needed. Despite what the Fudds may say, look at what you have the best chance of finding now and later.

Third, despite the Fudds and other interesting types out there, take the time to find what works for you, particularly with a pistol. I really loved it when customers would listen to me, pick out two or three they liked, then go rent them at a range and shoot them. It was interesting how often the gun they thought they liked the best was not the one they bought. Semi-automatic or revolver, same thing. What counts is control and accuracy, so take some time and find what works for you. Because if you can control the weapon and put a round on target, that’s what counts. If you can draw and put a round on target quickly, then it doesn’t matter if someone else has a weapon that can spit out 20 in a hurry. Really need to get into that more later in a stand-alone post.

Fourth, consider a mix. Rifle gives you long range, shotgun medium, and pistol short. There is no one perfect weapon for any situation. Oh, also consider that in either nuclear war or a zombie apocalypse, there are good reasons for everyone who is capable of handling weapons to have them. This is true fixed-base or on the move.

Now, consider edged weapons. Rather, think of them as tools. Knives and other edged weapons can do a variety of jobs, from cutting meat or rope to combat. Axes and hatchets again serve multiple functions destructive and constructive. Even swords can come in handy in some circumstances. Edged tools multitask, and it doesn’t hurt that a lot of people are more scared of an edged weapon than a firearm at close range.

Then, think about other types. Bow and arrow immediately comes to mind. I used to have a decent bow, can’t remember if it is buried in storage or what happened (stupid lightning). Good for hunting, quieter than a firearm, and again you have some range. Most of the time, an arrow can be reused. There are other options, take a few moments to consider if any of them work to your circumstances.

Finally, think about what you are willing to do to protect those you love, to keep them alive and safe from potentially horrible fates. Think about how you would deal with resource sucks, who take but give nothing back. Then pray, both to choose wisely and that we are guided away from disaster.

Then, do what works for you, your circumstances, and your location.

Oh, if you have the time, as we consider such things, look at reading John Ringo’s Black Tide Rising series, at least the first three books. A good solid look at preparedness, and particularly the things that have to be thought of in the context of protection. Also, a fun and easy read.

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Preparedness On The Fly (Food)

Preparedness On The Fly: Water

Preparedness On The Fly: Light

Preparedness On The Fly: Cooking

Preparedness On The Fly: Gear

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