Shall We Play The Game? – Page 2

2 May 23: Something, Nothing, or Hmmmm…

A local radio show I listen to when I can has a segment they do called “Is This Anything?” where they look at events/news stories/etc. and decide if they are something or nothing. Sorting through the mass of RUMINT and real information, I’ve decided to start doing a feature called “Something, Nothing, or Hmmmm…” about various stories, and with a focus on Russia and it’s politics. At least for now.

Let’s start with the biggest nothing that got around recently: Vladimir rattling the nuclear saber yet again. Yawn. He’s now threatened to leave two other nuclear treaties. That’s probably about the only thing he can do at this point, given issues with the nuclear forces we discussed a couple of weeks ago (here and here).

Continuing to hear of issues and problems, such that if anything does try to cook off, I think it’s going to be very limited. Sarah A. Hoyt offers a take (example here) that the Soviets/Russians never did have all the bombs and missiles claimed, and the more I’m learning, the more I think she’s been on to something. Her take on all the doomsday stuff being Soviet propaganda is dead on, as they encouraged such far and wide as a means of political warfare. The Gramscian damage from those efforts is still a huge problem today.

Which is the only real reason I find this story of the U.S. wiring Ukraine with sensors interesting. If true, it is indeed interesting but does not yet rise to the level of something. Not sure it even rates a low-level Hmmmm… yet. Worth keeping an eye on.

The reports that the Russians are having problems restoring mothballed tanks in part because they were buying the ball-bearings (and other precision parts) required from the U.S. and Europe is something. It is both amusing (we aren’t alone at buying parts and more from our enemies) and annoying (we shouldn’t be selling parts to our enemies either). Russia’s problems with machine work and manufacturing is huge, and make ours look almost tame. Fact is, we are in trouble as most of our tool and die makers are over 45 years-of-age and as such retire they are not being replaced. The number of skilled machinists is not good either. Reminds me of thirty or so years ago when glass blowers became scarce. So-called “experts” had scoffed at the idea such were needed, until they disappeared and they then learned the hard way that such were indeed needed. The inability to replace precision machined parts, and rumor has it electronics as well, is why the T-55s are coming out of museums and depots and headed to Ukraine.

As for the reports Russia has taken out two Ukrainian drones in the Moscow region rates a low-level Hmmmm… for now. If Ukraine isn’t working on developing or acquiring long-range drones, I would be shocked. In this case, the report really comes across as Russian disinformation and laying groundwork for false flag ops.

This report from the Institute for the Study of War has some interesting political tidbits as well as a lot of good info (as usual). Worth noting that Prigozhin has apparently made up with Vladimir and some others. However, what caught my eye were the replacement of the Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics and the other changes apparently coming from a senior officer who has recently gained Vladimir’s favor. As they note, all of this is ultimately aimed at Gerasimov. Also, it may be a belated step to try to undo some of the damage from looting the military, as if you want to engage in corruption and steal anything not nailed down, LOGCOM is the place to start in almost any military.

This report of explosions being heard in St. Petersburg and Rostov is a solid Hmmmm… Russia having some ooopses? Ukraine doing something unexpected? Other? Good questions.

To close out today with a solid something, let’s start with this and add in the mystery fires. Unless Ukraine has been sending in multiple A-Teams, it looks like there is a growing resistance movement in Russia. Given that simple statements opposing the invasion are resulting in prison time, children to foster care, and worse, this says something. The current leadership may be in for a rockier ride than anticipated. Definitely keep an eye on this.

Ship Killers

Elon Musk made a post that proved to be part of an interesting thread. The current intelligence disaster has revealed concerns about Chinese hypervelocity vehicles and that they are preparing to go all out against the U.S. Navy. No shit.

This is a party that’s been going on a while, and yes the Chinese are very serious about this. Far more so than our Navy appears to be at this time. Before the Chinese were the Soviets, and the object that was labeled a “mini-Shuttle” and often presented as a scale model test.

Just one problem with that: it really didn’t scale up/could not be scaled up according to a number of analysts. Then, when you looked at the tests of the vehicle, well, they had a naval component and didn’t seem to fit a “space” profile per se. To a number of people, including me, it really seemed to fit the profile of a Hypervelocity Kill Vehicle (HKV)/Hypervelocity Ship Killer (HSK).

Add in the fact that defending against objects moving at those speeds can be a bit of a challenge, and that if something that size hit a carrier at speed it could go through it long-ways. Except that it and the carrier would probably be a rapidly expanding fireball by that point. Even a near-miss could have potentially catastrophic results for both the carrier and any ships nearby.

There was a lot of “never happen” and the concerns were poo-pooed in the usual quarters, but at least a few people paid attention. Would that I thought any current GOFO or civilian military leadership was doing so today. For all that some are claiming hypervelocity delivery vehicles and such are over-hyped, they truly are a game changer, even when they don’t carry explosives.

Just a thought to brighten your day.

A Return To MADness

Growing up in the 1960s and 70s meant growing up under the threat of a mushroom cloud. The Cold War was indeed a frigid and real thing, for all that it came close to going hot far too many times. Nuclear war, and surviving same, was something I studied and I think I read Alas Babylon for the first time before I was twelve. A high school science fair project was designing an underground shelter that could hold out for five years in the event of a nuclear war. Yeah, I was a little different. Okay, quit laughing, a lot different.

What the kids today call OSINT, or Open Source Intelligence, we called Soviet Watching while the media referred to the people who did it as Kremlinologists. Some worked for the government, many of us did not. I started getting into Soviet Watching in the late 70s, and after a run-in with the KGB in 82/83, got serious about it. Serious enough that my Master’s thesis was apparently the world’s first OSINT directory, The Soviet Watchers. Ended up doing some interesting things with interesting people. Funny story on that here.

While I had loathed communism since third grade because the father of a female classmate was a political prisoner in Cuba, it is fair to say I was far more “liberal” than I am today. I did not like the concept of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), but had to reluctantly admit it had helped keep the peace. I studied, learned what I could, and prayed that one day we would get out from under that MADness.

Then came Reagan, who because of the media coverage terrified me at first on nuclear issues. Some of those interesting things I did caused me to change my opinion of Boss. Despite a close call or two, he was responsible for two things I never thought I would see in my lifetime: the fall of the Berlin wall and an end of the major MADness. Nothing can erase nuclear weapons, and a bit of the MADness remains as a result, but the threat of sudden full-scale nuclear war was pretty much off the table, at least in regards Russia. I’ve been told that Boss regarded it as one of the single best things he accomplished.

For me, there was a huge feeling of relief. No more EWO, gold teams, hot pad alerts, and all the rest. The problem was, there were still bad guys out there, and I’ve long pushed for significant upgrades and improvements in our nuclear arsenal. While the spectre of WWIII no longer loomed, we needed to be able to counter other threats with a flexible range of options.

While we have cruise missiles and related delights, we are still using Minuteman III missiles as the land-based portion of the triad. Yes, they have been upgraded, but there are limits to what you can do. We really needed to move up back in Reagan’s day, but every effort then and pretty much since has been fought tooth and nail. To this day, I wonder how much some politicians and activists were paid by the Soviet Union, and later Russia and others (cough, China, cough).

Allegedly, we will have the new LGM-35A Sentinel showing up this year and replacing the Minutman III by 2029. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Meantime, we have rogue states like Iran stepping up to the nuclear stage, and in China we have a Soviet-level nuclear threat. In fact, in many respects, it is a larger threat in my opinion.

On top of that, we have Vladimir who went where those who have sense feared to tread by making nuclear threats. There are two things at work here. First, the nuclear threat is all he had left after the conventional military was gutted by corruption. I think the nuclear force has been gutted as well, as I discussed yesterday. Second, the demented meat puppet in the White House apparently told Vladimir a while back that he was terrified of a nuclear war and would do about anything to avoid such. Sigh. Leroy Jenkins school of diplomacy.

My world was much less stressful and even happy when I was not having to think about flight times and megatons. OUR world was much safer before Vladimir and the Biden Regency decided to try to out-stupid each other. A pox on both their houses. Problem is, the threat has been made and must be honored. If we give in to nuclear blackmail, as I’ve pointed out a time or two before, it will lead to a far worse and far more destructive situation later.

The world has changed since the major MADness departed. Technology has advanced, and as a result we are not going to have thirty or so minutes to act, for bases on or near the coast (including DC) we are looking at five to eight minutes for a naval launch off the coast. Shades of First Strike.

Sadly, I think we need to go back to the days of hot pads and continuous airborne command posts. We need to update, harden, and disperse. We also urgently need to speed up development of anti-missile systems and bring back an updated Strategic Defense Initiative. We must not give in to nuclear blackmail, but we also need to do all we can to keep us safe and the genie bottled.

But, as I’ve also noted multiple times, the MADness worked only with sane, stable, and competent leaders. Having an insane or unstable leader involved was a terrifying prospect.

Which brings us to the floating blazing dumpster fire that is the Biden Regency; Prime Minister Castreaux pulling a number of interesting stunts to stay in power; Macaroon in France is dealing with protests and riots (mysteriously not covered by corporate media in the U.S.); Xi scrambling to maintain his hold on power; and Vladimir dealing with a war he can’t win and a “friend” who looks to be preparing to try to dethrone him. Add to it GOFOs who couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse, and then there’s the intelligence community… We. Are. So. Fucked.

Smart money would be on updating and improving. In fact, if someone wanted some more detailed suggestions I might even be able to give you something in a day or so. It’s not going to happen, but it’s nice to indulge in fantasy every now and then.

Meantime, I’m going to echo Sarah and say don’t despair. Prepare as best you can, keep your things where you can find them in the dark, and hope for the best. Somehow, we will get by.

UPDATE: Been pondering a bit, and I would add one thing to my recommendation: hold off on regulating space, and let’s get on out there. Elon Musk is right when he says we need to be a multi-planet species. Earth is the cradle of humanity, it’s past time we leave the cradle. Orbital is already doable, the moon can be done if not left to NASA, and Elon’s working on Mars. Be nice to get into the asteroids and make parts of the Island Worlds real.

Which Missile?

UPDATE BELOW

Reader Nichevo asked a couple of good questions the other day, and today I’m going to try to answer the second one. Why does the change in from the SARMAT (aka SATAN II) to the YARS matter? This also will allow some expansion on my twenty percent references.

Let’s start by stating the obvious: nuclear weapons, particularly modern “safe” nuclear weapons, are extremely complex systems. Aside from various critters we’ve considered for use in weapons delivery, and we have looked at a surprising array of those, modern delivery systems are extremely complex systems. Most delivery systems today are multi-stage in that one system launches yet another system. Missiles launch independent re-entry vehicles. Aircraft launch cruise missiles at targets. Submarines launch missiles which may or may not have more than one independent re-entry vehicles. I am not trying to be obnoxious here, there really is a reason for getting this basic, please be patient.

There are two basic types of missile/rocket in use today: those that use solid rocket motors or liquid-fueled engines. Solid-fuel motors are pretty much like a bottle rocket. You light it, the fuel burns, and it burns until gone. Liquid-fueled engines can be cut on and off multiple times. Yes, for the pedantic, there are indeed some solid engines out there, and some motors that can be cut off at need. Yes, I’m sure you can create hybrid systems, and for a number of reasons that’s all I’m going to say about solid engines and hybrids. ICBMs tend to go tried and true for rather obvious reasons (that clearly aren’t obvious to some) and use either solid motors or liquid engines.

Third obvious point: modern delivery systems at all levels are far more accurate than their predecessors. When you look at Circular Error Probability (CEP) we’ve gone from hitting miles away from the target to hitting inches from the target. And that’s even with many modern delivery systems being able to maneuver in an effort to avoid defensive fire. The more modern the missile or delivery vehicle, the more accurate it is likely to be.

I’m going to drop the old proper style, and not do the all-caps thing on names. Sarmat, aka Satan II, aka the RS-28 is the latest and greatest Russian long-range ICBM allegedly in production. It can fly deceptive courses! It has longer range than any system the decadent West has produced! It carries more and larger warheads, and can carry a mix of standard and hypersonic delivery vehicles! It slices! It dices! The West has nothing that can stand up to it!! Sorry, think I just channeled Vladimir doing his rendition of Goodgulf Greyteeth’s rant on hocus pocus in Bored of the Rings.

It is also several years behind schedule, as it was expected to fully replace the remaining Satan-I, aka the R-36, aka the SS-18 two to three years ago if I’m remembering correctly (stupid lightning). Which suggests development or production problems, if not both. Sarmat is a liquid-fueled system that appears to have a rather complex launch system, as you can see here in this video. Note the “successful” test shown comes after the date previously announced by Russia for it to be operational. More on this in a moment.

The Yars system, a solid-fuel system, was introduced around 2010, and is an upgrade of the older Topol-M system. It is limited to three warheads as opposed to the 10-12 warheads (yeah, there are some arguments/debates/mixes) possible with a Sarmat. Note older, and solid-fuel.

One of those obvious reasons for tried and true is that with solids, there is no lost time loading fuel or doing anything else. Turn the key, press the button, they are reliable. Provided you’ve stored them correctly and replaced segments as they hit end of service life. Otherwise, you get cracks and other delights, and you always have the chance of voids in the fuel from production issues. In which case, that motor segment is going to get cranky. If it gets cranky anywhere at or near ground level, trust me you will feel it ten to twenty miles away.

So, why go with an older, likely less accurate, and less capable system? Look at what’s gone on at the ISS recently. Something caused a Soyuz capsule to lose it’s coolant, rather spectacularly. It may have been a micrometeorite. Some observers have noted other issues, and there has been discussion of shoddy workmanship (Soviet-era level) and possible sabotage with the Russian vehicles. Bad workmanship or sabotage of liquid-fuel rocket systems.

There are a lot of people, including some who should know better, that have maintained loudly that the Russians would never have skimped on their nuclear systems, or extended the corruption that took over the military to it. Really? In what flippin universe?

Hypothetical question for you. If there was indeed a failed launch attempt during the Biden Regency visit to Ukraine, what do you want to bet it was a Sarmat? After all, if you are going to do a demo and make a point a la Khrushchev at the UN, why would you not use your latest and greatest?

To be fair, the Soviet Union had a history of shoddy workmanship. Identical spacecraft where parts couldn’t be exchanged between them. Soviet rockets used so many engines because they expected to lose up to a third of them on any given launch. If you are curious, I think Jim Oberg has talked about it a few times, possibly in his book Red Star In Orbit and various magazine articles. Others have as well. While things were reportedly improving in the Russian Federation, we may be seeing a return to the Soviet era ‘they pretend to pay us, we pretend to work’ mindset.

We may also be seeing a different form of defiance. Sabotage by disgruntled workers would not be a new thing for Russia. Keep in mind that despite all the attempts to smash it, there is an anti-war effort and it appears to be growing. I’ve been hearing a lot of reports of sabotage across Russia, but have also been taking those with a grain of salt. I’m at a point where I’m giving the idea credence.

Which takes us back to my somewhat pedantic start to this article. My search-fu is off today as I can’t find the link, but a while back Glenn Reynolds was — I think — the first to openly comment on the twenty percent concept. At the height of the Cold War, the Brass was pushing the concept of 100 percent EWO (Emergency War Orders) ready. If the brass asked ‘Are you EWO ready?’ the answer better be ‘Sir, yes Sir! I am EWO ready Sir!’ Anyone with a brain knew that this was impossible, but it ensured that we could make the 80 percent threshold. That is, with all those complex systems, 80 percent of them would work. I suspect that 90 percent really was the goal, but…

Anyway, if the codes went out, at least 80 percent of the bombers would take off, 80 percent of the missiles would launch, 80 percent of the bombs would explode, etc.

Glenn was the first to say, in effect, that we would be lucky if twenty percent worked. The old equation has been stood on its head. I hope and pray we never find out, but I’m hitting a point where I think that if 10 percent worked I would be surprised. Complex systems require maintenance, testing, and upgrades. What’s the first thing that gets cut when Gen. Cyrus wants to have another struggle session on white rage during one of the lowest budgets in decades? Or, your newly minted “officer” who is really a civilian there to loot so he can maybe become a true oligarch, looks for easy money? Old story, on pretty much every side out there. Sigh.

That Russia is having to drop it’s nuclear threat to an older and more limited system speaks volumes. It says a lot about production, and the hints of sabotage are getting louder. It is also the strongest indicator yet that Russian nuclear forces have been, and possibly still are, getting gutted by corruption just like the rest of the military. Like I say, there is a lot of RUMINT going around, but there are enough indicators for me to feel confident on this.

So much so I am dropping my 40/60 60/40 level. I think we have less than a ten percent chance of any nuclear usage, but will drop the likelihood to 10 percent. The only reason I’m going that high is that stupidity is still a factor. MAD depended on stable and competent leadership. Right now, we have the Biden Regency, which is the Leroy Jenkins of competent action; Vladimir with health and other issues, including an associate who is looking to unseat him; Xi has more problems than many realizes; and, well, you get the idea.

The percentage really doesn’t matter in some respects. We have nuclear weapons and war being threatened as it is the last illusion of power Russia has to wave at the world. That, and Biden told Vladimir how scared he was of nuclear war and apparently that he would do anything to avoid it. What do we do about it? I’m going to try to write about that tomorrow.

For anyone just dropping by, this page has a lot of links to previous work, and this page is dedicated to nuclear articles. Feel free to take your time, browse around, heck, if you’ve got an adult beverage or a good cigar, go for it.

UPDATE: To answer/agree with several comments, disbanding SAC was a huge mistake. In fact, it was a clusterfuck of such a magnitude that I suspect it was felt in other dimensions. Those responsible deserve every bit of contempt and disdain that those competent in life can spare. I’m not sure we have the time and ability to recover from their gross incompetence.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Russia Update

I’ve been holding off on an update as there is a lot of smoke, which usually means a fire but in this case could just be politicians and proxies blowing it out their shorts. Russia operates very differently from the U.S., something that seems to escape about ninety percent of DC. It’s that difference that is making it hard to tell exactly what is happening.

The breathless coverage of the day is the assassination of Vladlen Tatarsky, born Maxim Yuryevich Fomin. The well-known Russian milblogger was a huge supporter of the war, but also had become a bit vocal in his criticism of how it was being waged, progressing, etc. To the point it was noted and being discussed in very careful whispers around Moscow. If you think Daria Trepova is the cold-blooded mastermind of the explosion, got a bridge for sale.

The assassination is very reminiscent of Darya Dugina (see here and here). Except this time they used a Russian patsy who provides access to a dissident group as well as the chance to tar Navalny and his party. Right now, suspecting they had hoped she would die in the blast, to make a lot of the smearing easier without anyone around to rebut.

Again, it plays to Russian tropes and drama. The man who could have caused the leadership a lot of problems is now conveniently a martyr. There’s a huge message in there too.

In Russia, the culture has two elements that shape more than many seem to realize. First, there is the idea that all people are corrupt and that therefore it is good to have Kompromat on everyone. The old KGB collected such on every member, both as a means of control at need and a means of knowing what enticed them. The concept of an honest person, one who actually obeys all laws and such, is a subject of laughter and concern. Laughter at the thought there is such a person. Terror that it could be true and of the damage someone like that could do to various systems.

There is also the mythos of the reluctant leader. Naked ambition is never a pretty thing, and in Russia such has needed to be cloaked in something a bit more palatable to the public. Stalin and pretty much every other leader have never stepped up because of ambition; rather, they had leadership thrust upon them and rose to the occasion. Noble. Even if ice axes were involved in the process.

Which brings us to Yevgeny Prigozhin. He’s been discussed a time or two here (see here for one) and so far seems to be holding his own in the current political warfare even though his Wagner group hasn’t done as well. He seems to have had a falling out with Vladimir, and Wagner is looking to refocus on Africa according to some reports. Worse, the quiet whispers extend far beyond Moscow as his ambition for higher leadership have become so obvious that it is being discussed. Discussion of such among an elite group is one thing. Discussion by the larger public is not.

Complicating this is, of course, Vladimir and his health. There are reports of body doubles, escape plans to China, and more. The idea of doubles has been around almost from the start, and I would not be surprised if such were not used. Not saying use is confirmed, just I wouldn’t be surprised if they were being used. To me, it is clear that his health woes are accelerating. Just look at all the video from Xi’s visit, much less his trip to occupied territory. The limp, the gait, and more are clearly visible. Vladimir has done all he could to hide issues before, for them to be seen openly is telling.

As a post-Vladimir world draws near, the scramble for the top seat is going to heat up. In fact, if this is true, some are already well into making plans and have violated a prime law of politics: everyone bad mouth’s the boss, but don’t get caught doing so. There are rumors of other fractures, and multiple people with ambition.

With the need to pull tanks from museums for the fight, Vladimir is increasingly left with only one option for shaking at the world: nuclear. This report indicates they are going to stop warning us of tests, which petulantly childish and foolish. Day ending in Y again.

Problem with that is, you can only push so far. RUMINT has been swirling for a while about issues in Russia’s nuclear weapons systems, including command and control. Note the push to the Yars system versus SARMAT/SATAN II, which was supposed to have replace all the SATAN I missiles several years ago. Add to it reports that an attempt to do a demo launch while Biden was in Ukraine failed. There is a lot of RUMINT out there, and I think we are on the mercy of either the twenty percent or even the ten percent.

People have noticed the rhetoric and at least a few appear to have looked at reality outside the bubbles that permeate Russian society and government. Such is not a help to Vladimir and his efforts to stay in control and start the building of the new Russkiy Mir. Politics and business are a blood sport in Russia, and I would expect to start seeing more blood in the days ahead.

Quick Aside: One reason for going for the older tanks is that they are easier to refurbish than the new. Most newer military vehicles, and not just Russian designs, require a lot of maintenance and if they’ve been in depot, even in the best of storage, they are difficult to bring back into operation. The longer they are stored, and the worse the conditions, I won’t use the word impossible but it does get very interesting. It’s something John Ringo gets into in his Black Tide Rising series.

On a more cynical note, I’m actually working on a contrarian argument in regards nuclear war. Picture Vladimir as Richard Dreyfuss’s character Alexander Dunning in the film RED, going “I’m the bad guy!” Yes, he is, and he want’s to hurt the West, not help us. Therefore, there is no way he is going to nuke DC, NYC, SF, LA, and other major cities. Right now, the politicians and bureaucrats there are doing more damage to the Republic that is the United States than Vladimir could with nukes. So, he is just going to continue to shake his head at the debauchery, and raise a toast to the damage being done.

On a more serious note, they are stepping up the nuclear rhetoric because it’s all they have right now. This was planned for three days. Funny how all the political plans for a short victorious war have rarely worked out throughout history.

There is unrest growing in Russia, which is why you are seeing stories like this, like this, like this, and like this. For all the propaganda and bluster, the word is getting out that all is NOT well. Which is making a lot of people nervous. Hence, the assassination of Vladlen Tatarsky who was a threat to share a lot of accurate information. Or to get people asking for that information.

I’m sure there will be more soon.

Complex Reality II

My post last week on Complex Reality did not go over well in some quarters. In fact, only David Strom at Hot Air got it at all, and his twitter thread was a good take. Much appreciated too. Several took me to task for failing to provide good counter-options to the Chamberlin Brigade and the War Brigade.

There are no good options to suggest.

Give me a moment here and let’s review a few things. There are indeed options, but none of them are what I would call good options.

First up, we would not be in the mess except for the fact that we have incompetent leadership. The Biden Regency is corrupt, incompetent, and unswervingly bent on ideological matters (fundamentally transforming America). Our military leadership is equally incompetent and all in on the religious conversion (on the religious aspect, see Glenn’s take here). We are well past the point any remaining competent GOFOs should have been putting stars on the table (and, honestly, even birds and bars). If any have, it’s not made the general run of RUMINT yet. The current lot of GOFOs couldn’t organize a drinking party in a distillery (yes, tempted to use a different analogy but the Pentagon is already one of the largest whorehouses in DC), and actually winning a war is not even on the table. Proper party indoctrination takes time and money, and, who needs a training budget anyway given they see time spent on struggle sessions as being far more important than actual combat training. Before I go on a rant about this and other things, here’s a point to consider: name me one thing of importance our so-called elites have been right about in the past year; the past three years; the past five years; or, the last ten years.

Then again, Russia has its problems too. Oligarchy and a system that puts a very different take on doing in the competition (and extends it to all walks and levels of life) tends to stifle innovation and competition. Corruption at all levels, and in all branches of service, tends to give you a military that can’t live up to the hype.

Add to it a leadership and population who absolutely believe that the West invaded them after the fall of communism and that they are literally at war with the West, and it makes the situation even touchier. This, and other memes, are often dismissed as propaganda by well-educated idiots in said West, but are the real cultural belief of a complex people who are not ‘just like us but speak funny.’ The roots of this really do go back to the Enlightenment, and to the decision to go with the German model rather than the British when the Czars (Czarina) decided to “modernize” Russia a few hundred years back. And, yes, the anti-British/anti-West roots of the modern Slavophile movement do go back that far.

Now, throw in this little ice water douche into the mix. The argument is often made we have no viable reason to support Ukraine as they are not a member of NATO, etc. Back when the Soviet Union fell, Ukraine suddenly found itself the third largest nuclear power in the world. For a number of reasons, pretty much nobody was happy with that, so the United States and other countries and entities stepped up to guarantee Ukraine’s safety if they gave up all those nukes. Now, the fact is we pretty much abrogated our responsibilities under those agreements back in the wake of the first Russian invasion. Yet, they do still bind us as a matter of honor. While honor is in short supply in political and military leadership around the world, it is something a country should be very careful about discarding completely. It takes generations to rebuild the trust that is lost, and as David and I discussed on Twitter, I don’t think we’ve got those generations.

The magic money press the Biden Regency is running flat out is flat out running us into the ground. We literally can’t afford to keep it running as the bills for that magic money are already past due. We also are facing shortages of critical weapons, as I noted last week. Beege Wellborn has been all over this on Twitter, and courtesy of an exchange she had, I suggest you read this and consider the following.

We are talking about years to decades (and if you want to see schedules slip, look at any military procurement schedule) to restock to peacetime levels. Way things are going, we don’t have that much time. We also need to be building up to wartime levels and training/recruiting to fight a two front war, as that is the quickest way to stop any number of aggressions. Right now, the Brits are facing running out of critical supplies in one day (HT Instapundit). I’ve been hearing for a while that we are looking at doing so in three days. I will simply note again (and again and again) that peacetime stocks are a joke, and anyone who tells you they are sufficient is also a joke.

A good solution to the current situation would be to cut spending, use the Defense Production Act for actual military supplies and needs, and supply actual arms to Ukraine with audit and oversight to ensure they don’t end up on the black market. The billions need to stop. At least from us. Oh, and we need to get back to training to win wars, not how to win a drag show.

That radical Jazz Shaw actually proposed something along those lines, with having other NATO members actually step up to their obligations. I think that’s a great idea, and Germany should take the lead. Then again, in some ways I’m a radical too.

Given our leadership, as well as theirs, that’s not going to happen. The Regency is fine with the billions and the money laundering. If you don’t think there is any, you might want to look at Sam the Scam and how many funds went into his crypto operation from Ukraine. Just a hint, but that’s the tip of the iceberg.

Until we can sustain what we are doing, we need to cut back on what is going to Ukraine. We need others to step up and match deeds to words when it comes to supplying arms and funds. Where there are roadblocks to them doing so, we need to remove those roadblocks if we can do so. This is not a good solution, but it is workable — sorta.

The fact is, if Vladimir and Russia are not stopped now, we are going to have a bigger problem later when they go after all the former republics. And, yes, they will do so. And go for even more besides. For all that many here deride Russkiy Mir as a joke, it is not such to the Russians. It is the blueprint for Slavophile redemption, and they will pursue it religiously unless they are unable to do so. I agree with Kamil Galeev that the only way that happens is if the Russian Federation breaks up or is broken up. On the latter, no “safe” way to do that and on the former odds are against it despite certain areas being restive in regards rule by Moscow. For all that China wants certain areas back, and Russia seems to be willing to risk the China trap (and Xi appears to be pulling out the stops to get Ukraine to fall completely into the Chinese Road trap), I wouldn’t count on external factors yet.

Quick aside for Zelensky: be careful, China will offer all sorts of loans and massive rebuilding for a fee. When you can’t pay, they seize and either retain — or sell it to Russian ownership. Just a hint, as even I can see that one coming.

Again, reality is complex and rarely subject to simple or simplistic solutions. There is not a good solution to the problem that is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There are varying degrees of unpalatable solutions, none of which address many of the real if underlying issues at play. Trust me, if I spot what I think might be even a glimmer of a realistic solution to restore peace and prevent the next war, I’ll be shouting it from the rooftops. Until then…

Complex Reality

I’ve been watching both the Chamberlin Brigade and War Brigade go at it for the last few weeks, and shaking my head. We are well past the point where adult discussion is needed, but we also appear in no danger of such taking place anytime soon. Instead, there is a whole bunch of reeeeing within the Beltway involving Presidential politics while the American public outside the Beltway is just looking at those inside the beltway like the purple-clothed guy in the meme.

The Chamberlin Brigade is breathlessly touting peace-at-any-price because oh my stars we might have WWIII and it might go nuclear. No shit! Really? That was a possibility from the start, and Vladimir has played it to the hilt because that threat has worked for him on many levels and with far too many leaders. Let’s just say that when one world leader tells another he’s scared to death of nuclear war and will do anything to avoid it, it gives the other a tremendous amount of leverage. Especially when the one with the leverage knows that the other leader is a demented meat puppet who’s Regency is incompetent and more focused on day-to-day venality.

It also doesn’t help that quite a bit of the world remembers the guarantees made when Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons on its soil. Those watching now know exactly what those guarantees were worth, and the quicksand on which current promises are made. Especially when one looks at the divisions within NATO. Particularly the division between those newer members who have been serious about their commitments and readiness, and those older states who have chosen to ignore those commitments and count on the United States to fund (directly and indirectly) their social programs and provide true defense for them. Particularly one member who rather cheerfully bet their whole future, energy and otherwise, on partnerships and other agreements with a known unfriendly power — and who’s companies continue to defy sanctions to provide that unfriendly power with tech and more. In regard that member, this is an interesting read. Of course, they are not alone on that and it is amazing the number of companies around the world cheerfully joining in on that short-sighted effort, including (apparently) some in the U.S.

The Chamberlin Brigade lives in the fantasy that since the U.S. is the major provider for the Ukraine, that it can impose an immediate cease-fire and settlement. That they can force Ukraine to cede territory, stop the fighting, and all will be well. Peace, light, joy, all joining together to sing Kumbaya, and cute fuzzy predators and prey frolicking peacefully together in the fields. This, of course, demands ignoring things starting with 2014 and going backwards. It also demands ignoring most world history of the last 300 or so years, especially the politics of the region.

The fact is, that even before Russkiy Mir, the Baltics, Poland, and others were inclined to look at Russian promises askance, if not flat out disbelief. They know very well what Russian promises of peace, of friendship, and other such things are worth. As it is, they have paid far more attention to the efforts to create the new Russian Empire than the over-educated idiots in DC who are far more focused on internal politics and empire building than in external affairs or even rudimentary competence. The memories of what it means to be a neighbor and then vassal of Russia linger, and the centuries do not dim them. Most have experiences far more recent, and if you want but one example ask an Estonian about the Soviet bombing of Tallinnn during WWII, and the interesting targeting of same. These are people who know in the marrow of their bones what any Russian peace or non-aggression pact or promise is worth.

They are also well aware of current Russian efforts to destabilize their countries. If you think Moldova is the only country where such efforts are underway, again I have a bridge for sale cheap. It even extends beyond the former client states, as seen here. All of the former Soviet-occupied countries are aware of such fifth columns, just as they are all aware of Russian intelligence and sabotage efforts, such as what was just broken up in Poland. This is all a rich tradition that goes back decades, and is far more extensive than many realize. Just look at Soviet involvement with the environmental movement, Greens, Green Party, etc. If it would destabilize the West and undermine the concepts of the Enlightenment, they were and are all-in.

The War Brigade is just as willfully short-sighted in their efforts. They see an “easy” proxy war fought under many of the same rules as Vietnam et al, not accepting that the world has changed a bit since then. Heck, or even since the proxy wars in Central and South America, some of which technically are still going. A good proxy war could last a long, long time and offer all sorts of opportunities for graft, money laundering, and other delights. That assumes that everyone is willing to play by the old rules, and Xi and others haven’t shown a particular desire to do so. Yep, bringing up Winnie the Xi as this is NOT just a regional conflict.

It is already WWIII on many levels, as the players extend far beyond just Russia and Ukraine. It extends well beyond the Baltics, Eastern Europe, and Scandinavia. It includes North Korea, China, Iran, and even a few others. Both the Chamberlin Brigade and the War Brigade are ignoring that reality for all they are worth. Just as they are humming and drumming their feet over the reality on the ground in the region. They are ignoring the fact that the Ukrainian people, not just their leadership, are pissed off and fighting the invasion. They are ignoring that the Baltics and others would rather slag their own countries than return to being any part of the new greater Russian empire. They are ignoring that the last time this was tried we went from less than a million dead to tens of millions dead in less than a generation. They ignore that peace-at-any-price has never worked at any time in history.

What is the answer? I don’t know. The worst long-term outcome is for the Chamberlin Brigade to win, as it guarantees a much worse bloodbath not too far in the future that is likely to include non-limited use of nuclear or other special weapons. The worst short-term outcome is likely to be if the War Brigade gets its way, as things may escalate in ways not anticipated. My take remains that if Vladimir can’t take Ukraine, he will make sure no one gets it via using the destruction of the nuclear plants to render it, and even parts of the Baltics, a wasteland. That it might do so to parts of Western Russia is just the cost of doing business.

Factor in that the U.S. can’t afford to keep sending billions of dollars and tons of weapons to the conflict. Our economy and banking system are a tottering house of cards. We have already sent critical stocks of multiple weapons/systems that will take us years to replace. If we got into a shooting war with a major power (cough, China, cough), we are like NATO in that we will be doing good to have three days of critical supplies. We are well below critical levels in a number of areas, and that fact has indeed been noted by our enemies. While there are some token efforts to boost production, at current levels it will take not years, but decades, to replenish peace-time stocks. Here’s a clue for free: peacetime levels are always massively below wartime needs. In peace, the beancounters rule and why maintain massive stocks when DIE and other nice-to-dos need funding? War requires massive amounts of stocks, unless you are willing to expend troops in place of munitions. Might want to ask the Russians how that’s working out for them. The War Brigade might also want to look at our falling recruitment and retention numbers, and may also want to look at the percentages of same going back a decade or so that involve actual combat troops and leaders.

My personal take remains that I hope Ukraine kicks Vladimir’s ass and gets back ALL their territory. Russkiy Mir needs to be stopped, not encouraged. I also still feel that this is not a fight that needs even one drop of blood from our troops. Our ability to continue to provide funds and war stocks to the Ukraine is already well beyond unsustainable. We can’t fight a one front war under current circumstances, much less a two-front war as called for. What is done and how do we do it? I don’t have an answer. Of those I’ve seen who say they do, reality doesn’t seem to be a factor in those plans.

There is more I wanted to get into today, such as demographics, the role of prison culture in Russian life and high-level politics, the Enlightenment and why Russia hates the British, and other factors, but the above is where my Muse led me. Tomorrow is not likely a day when I get to delve into any of those areas as it is a medical day. Joy.

In this, as in all of life, there are no easy answers. Beware anyone who tells you there are such. The best I can offer for now is to be prepared, be patient, keep your things where you can find them in the dark.

NOTE: If you need anything else to disturb your sleep, read this.

Peace At Any Price

Earlier this week, the always excellent and interesting Baldilocks shared a thread on Twitter dealing with the perceptions and thoughts of a certain class of Russians in regards the war. The thread is well worth reading, as are some of the comments to her tweet and my retweet.

What was reported matches what I am seeing and hearing from that class, and from others. For all that one must support the war in public, or face draconian consequences, even in private it has a lot of support. As in a WAG on my part of better than fifty percent. Yes, there are segments that don’t support and are not thrilled with things, and they tend to fall more on ethnic lines from what I’m seeing. Overall, the war has a surprising strong, wide, and deep level of support within Russia. Not universal, but pretty darn significant.

Support for Vladimir remains quite high. This varies as one goes through demographics and ethnicities, but overall strong. Two areas where this may not be true are in what I call the political oligarchia: the politicians, power brokers, oligarchs, and wanna-be oligarchs who make up the upper levels of power. The old nomenklatura concept is dead and gone. In public, this upper level is very pro-Vladimir. In private, well, it’s still not clear to me if some of what is going on behind the scenes is simply preparation for his retirement or death, or if there is something more active going on. To be fair, there are days I’m not sure those playing the great game in Russia truly know themselves. The other area is the bottom of the demographics pile, which tends to be ‘yeah, support, whatever; none of them give a damn about us.’ That may be as close to a universal concept across cultures as anything.

An important point within this is the response of that educated class to the pushback by Ukraine, NATO, and others. Note the surprise, shock even, that Europe and others not only opposed the invasion, but that they are helping Ukraine (most of whom are sadly misled and should be welcoming the return of Russia) resist. That they would potentially gut their economies to do so. This is seen as bigotry and ignorance by that class of Russians. And by others within Russia, to be honest.

That plays almost perfectly into the great Russian paranoia that everyone is out to get them. That has been a hallmark of Rus/Slav psychology going back into ancient times. They have always been treacherously set upon by others, even as they were peacefully raping, murdering, and pillaging those that set upon them. Now, Russia does have a few legitimate times when they weren’t doing something like that at the time they were attacked, but I am overall reminded of a certain criminal class here in the U.S. that was never ‘doing nothing’ when “attacked” by those they were robbing, etc.

It also brings to the fore a concept that seems to continue to elude far too many: outside reactions and considerations were not and are not a factor of consideration. The war was not started with Western or other reaction in mind, other than that it was felt that the Biden Regency and others would just go along with it and not do anything of significance against it. Token reparations maybe, but that was it. Given that the Regency and the Meat Puppet seemed to be egging it on at one point, I can see how they thought that. But, that was only a fleeting thought to them and not even a serious point of consideration.

The dynamics that drove the decision to invade are almost entirely internal. They are based in culture, politics, and other areas that create the internal dynamics that are not understood and not even being considered by far too many outside of Russia. There is no path to peace without taking those dynamics, and the overwhelming support for the war and for creating a new Russkiy Mir, into consideration.

Therein lies the problem. Outside opinions and even responses do not matter to the large majority of the population of the Russian Federation. At best, such are seen as bigotry and an attack. At worst, they were not even a consideration. That holds true for the leadership as well. For all intents and purposes, the people of the Russian Federation live in a bubble, and the upper leadership lives in an even more dense and impenetrable bubble.

Stephen Green, who does some truly great coverage I do recommend reading, has two (sadly VIP) posts up, here and here, on “Putin’s Stupid and Unnecessary War.” By our standards, completely true and valid statements. The war is stupid, unnecessary, and even foolish. From a Russian societal perspective, however, it is extremely necessary and even overdue. Stephen asks a good question that I can see before it hits the paywall, about the military leadership should have known the military was not ready and should have prevented the war as a result.

Again, by our standards and culture, an obvious point. By the standards of Russian culture, however, invalid. Keep in mind the two bubbles already mentioned, as there are more. Vladimir sacked a lot of real generals a while back so that various apparatchiks, oligarchs, and wanna-be oligarchs could get in on the fun of what we would see as outright corruption. Russians today just see it as how business is done. Those that were smart cut officers in on the take, and smart officers made sure the men didn’t starve. As it was, the troops often looted items to sell on the black so they got pay, food, etc. Gundecking reports has a long and honorable tradition in Russia going back almost to the very earliest days. Yet more bubbles, and people who needed to know things didn’t. Given the lack of esteem given to the military these days, the general public and leadership really didn’t care if they starved or not, or what was happening to them. Or what would happen if they had to go to war.

It was only when war came, and some people got a cold douche of reality, that anything began to change. Part of that change was that a number of people in demographics and ethnicity that meant they would be called up to fight decided to beat feet. Quite a few citizens of the Russian Federation, and not just the government, consider them traitors to be dealt with later and who should never ever think of returning to the Rodina. Understand, your average citizen of the Russian Federation has no problem with people dying for the war and the cause of Russkiy Mir — so long as it’s not them. Marginalized groups or ethnicities? Who cares, it will improve the gene pool.

Nuclear war? Go for it. Our mighty Russian military will protect us while devastating our enemies. We have far more bombs and missiles than they do. We have far greater, more powerful, and more accurate defenses against missiles and other attacks.

That their nuclear and nuclear defense forces might be in a shape similar to their other weapons and stockpiles has penetrated few if any bubbles as far as I can tell. How many will work (on either side)? Who knows, and I’d really rather not find out. That said, I’m in the camp of 20 percent, i.e. an 80 percent failure rate. In light of this, I also highly recommend reading this from Sgt. Mom. Our own military is in many ways in no better shape. We are not capable of fighting a one front war for more than a few days (if that), much less a two-front war as we are supposed to be able to do.

Which leads us, finally, to the growing “peace at any price crowd.” I’m seeing it a lot on social media these days, and from some surprising quarters. As I noted in posts before, putting in place a cease fire or a forced peace as things stand will only guarantee a far worse war with far worse consequences later. Even one that gives Ukraine the Donbas and Russia the Crimea will result in the same. See this post and this post for some of the previous discussion on outcomes.

Right now, I do not see any easy, good outcomes. Far too much of what is being discussed and pushed is not in touch with the reality of Russian culture and internal dynamics, much less that of Ukraine. Anything that does not take such into consideration will fail. Spectacularly. Creating something viable, or at least make each step suck the least, requires strong, informed, and capable leadership. Looking at the Biden Regency, Castreaux, Macaroon, Charles/Sunak, Shultz, Vladimir, etc., yeah, right.

Prepare, pray, and hope for the best. It’s about all we truly can do right now.

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, which include moving to the SW, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

The Termites Are In The Woodwork

I’ve waited to write about the Chinese balloons for several reasons, including the fact that I really didn’t want to post a mass of invective in place of reasoned thought. The invective is still there, but I have it on a leash for now. Sort of.

I will start by saying that right now I don’t believe a word of what is being said by any branch, part, or employee of the Federal government — nor should you. Until it is confirmed by a reliable and reputable source, don’t trust it or them.

Have balloons been used for intelligence work before? Yes, pretty much since those wacky French brothers got things going on this side of the world. Did the Chinese float three across the U.S. under Trump? No. That story is deflating fast, but not fast enough.

Are balloons being researched for a range of options including aimed delivery of precision weapons, drones, or even chemical/biological payloads? Smart money says yes. Are they the optimal platform for such? Magic Eight Ball says maybe. There are a host of factors that go into such an assessment, and for a number of reasons I will just stick with maybe for now.

Anyone telling you that balloons are no different that satellites and it’s no big deal is a liar and a complete and total idiot to boot. Satellites are moving, and moving fast. There are limits to what they can observe, when they can observe, and on the data they collect. A balloon can be a remarkably steady platform, especially if it can be steered and controlled. Using modern optics, hyperspectral and multispectral imaging, and other sensing systems (and you can pack a lot on a truss that size), you would be amazed at the data that can be collected. Especially if you have nuclear thermocouples or other systems for the real power hogs so that solar can go to other systems including steering.

An amazing amount of data. Data that was collected and transmitted back to China.

Notice also that corporate media, and far too many others, have pretty much dropped coverage of the fact that there was at least one other balloon acknowledged. If you can find any coverage, go back and note just how carefully the government didn’t say where it had been, much less exactly where it was located at that time other than Latin America — which could be anywhere from Mexico to Tierra del Fuego. There were “unconfirmed” reports from non-governmental sources that indicate it was possible that balloon had travelled down the West Coast. You know, where all the military bases that would be responding to actions by China are located.

As it is, the government and corporate media are dropping like a hot potato any mention that the balloon we did finally shoot down may have spent three days loitering over Malmstrom AFB, which happens to house the majority of our Minuteman missiles. Among other things. Look at all the bases and such along the flight path of the balloon. Want to place a bet that if the data is not already being shared with Moscow, it soon will be?

And let’s not forget that the balloon(s) were allegedly not picked up before they were over the Aleutian Islands. If that is true, that would indicate that multiple systems failed in their job. No one, not two, but multiple systems. Also, note that neither was shot down right then either over ocean or in a remote area, despite the violation of American airspace and international law. Instead, they were allowed to continue on and complete their mission.

Dereliction of Duty is the politest term I can use for what has happened. This applies to our military and our civilian leadership. The alleged reason for trying to cover up the incursion is beyond belief in terms of competent, professional, and honest leadership. For the Biden Regency, par for the course. Hey, this is an unprecedented and catastrophic intelligence breach, but better that than embarrassing the Chinese. You know how sensitive they are.

There are no good words to describe how bad the damage is to our military and national defense. As bad as we think it is, I suspect it is even worse than we realize at this time.

The military leadership that failed to detect or take action to prevent the unprecedented overflight should all suck-start their sidearms and apologize to their ancestors in person. The civil leadership that did the same should also go apologize to theirs in person as well.

That said, if the key people involved in this had been acting in the best interest of the United States of America, in full honor of the oath sworn to the Constitution and the Republic, this would not have happened. That it did happen makes it rather clear that one or more people in positions of power were not working for or in the best interest of the United States. If they are not working for us, then for whom are they working? The answer seems pretty clear to me.

The termites are in the woodwork, and the cockroaches are in the walls. The gates all open from the inside, and we have allowed the horse inside the walls.

Ukraine: Outcomes Pt 2

Yesterday provided a synopsis of the overview of the background to what is going on today. Given the reports that the Biden Regency offered Vladimir twenty percent of Ukraine (which isn’t really theirs to offer or give) in exchange for peace, we need to look at some of the possible outcomes.

I want to take these from worst-case to best-case. In every case, there are ways for things to go very well, or to go catastrophically wrong. On all sides, what happens is not only up to senior leadership, but your mid- and even low-level leaders will have their chance at glory or infamy. When it comes to war, David Drake has long pointed out that what does or doesn’t happen often boils down to one scared private. If you don’t want that scared private being the one who decides war/no-war, nuke/no-nuke, don’t put them in that position. That, however, requires competent leadership…

I’ve argued with myself over the order of the first two items, but for now, I think the absolute worst case scenario is the well-meaning imposition of peace based on current lines or claims. Exactly what the Biden Regency, and a host of well-meaning but poorly informed people, have called for.

Neither side is going to buy it. Russkiy Mir demands the return of Ukraine (along with a host of other independent countries) to the fold, willing or not. Ukraine wants its independence and all its territory. The only things such a “peace” will buy is a far more devastating war in the near future.

Both sides are going to arm, train, fortify, and prepare. Given that I’m reasonably sure there are those in Ukraine who are lamenting ever giving up the nukes, there will be efforts to develop or obtain special weapons of some type or types. It may be clandestine, but it will take place. Meantime, Russia — despite the corruption — can buy or produce weapons to replace the rusted/deteriorated junk in various stockpiles despite sanctions. Guarantee a number of Western companies and/or governments will get rich off it too, as they’ve been doing all along sanctions or no.

When the two sides resume, and they will, it is quite likely to set new standards for fast, brutal, and horrific. Each will be going at it to win, to eliminate the threat posed by the other, and in the end both are quite likely to die. Don’t believe me? Just take a look at military history through the ages. Troy and Carthage are not the norm, because the norm is that the tribes on both sides involved were so damaged that they literally either didn’t have the people to go on, or were so weakened that others came in and took them out.

If you think that various levels of civil and military leadership in both Ukraine and Russia are not aware of this, you are mistaken. So, when the war resumes, there will be planning on both sides for the Gotterdammerung. In the case of Ukraine, I see whatever is done as directed at Russia, along the lines of “from Hell’s heart I stab at thee” type thing. The worst case is going to come from Russia, which if it sees the illusion of ever creating Russkiy Mir and retaining status in the world slipping, is quite likely to try to level the new playing field, or at least to ensure they don’t go down alone.

If you want to guarantee a truly horrific war in the near-term, and one quite likely to turn into a full-scale world war with nuclear and other special arms being used, decree an unjust peace. All that bit of self-satisfied virtue signaling will do is to guarantee true horrors within ten years of its imposition.

The second worst outcome is the status quo. As in some form of near-constant combat with no truly decisive action. This could literally go on for years, as the Russians have a lot of people they can feed into the meat grinder and Ukraine has a will, training, and a growing stream of weapons to offset Russian numbers. The devastation that will result from such is almost impossible for most to imagine.

The loss of troops will be one thing; but, the losses in the civilian population will rise exponentially. The continuing and even expanded torture, rape, and murder of civilians when the Russians take an area will have repercussions far beyond the battlefield and on levels many have yet to consider. Never mind that it will generate a generational implacable hatred between the Ukrainians and the Russians, it will have a fundamental negative effect on Russian cultural life. It will also change how Russians, citizens and those who have fled, are treated around the world.

On top of that, you will have massive losses of infrastructure, nor will it be limited to Ukraine. As the damage mounts, Ukraine will hit back and will seek to make points in so doing. As with anyone who fights back, Russia will declare this an outrage and escalation, which will lead to a series of escalations.

Environmental damage? Take a look at France, where there are still trenches from WWI (and WWII), areas full of unexploded ordnance, and even no-go areas because of the use of war gasses and UXD from a century ago. What you see there is nothing to what will become of potentially large areas of Ukraine. Then again, part of the plan for Russia all along has been to eliminate Ukraine as a source of food and fertilizer to the world. Vladimir really doesn’t care if the Middle East and Africa starve, so long as Ukraine starves and capitulates.

There is more, and even worse, but what it boils down to is the longer this drags out, the more likely it is that someone will do something stupid in terms of either special weapons or attacking the nuclear power plants in the Ukraine. Someone, somewhere, is going to see a chance to break things open by the use of chemical, nuclear, or other special weapons. I would give good odds that it will be at a mid- to low-level, and I simply note that chemical weapons rarely have PAL and other controls. If they are available, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to make them usable.

Given internal politics in Russia, which is all Vladimir and the other leadership care about, the push to do something will hit one or more truly frightening points. Note that Vladimir has already set the stage for the following scenario by shelling on or near nuclear plants, and has planted the lie with the Russian public that it was Ukraine. Again, please understand that Vladimir et al don’t care if the Biden Regency, you, me, or anyone else believes the lie. They don’t. It only matters if it has traction internally. Pressure mounts, and the nuclear power plants get hit.

Whatever else happens, Ukraine as a functioning country is destroyed. This will impact farming, mining, everything. Imagine Vladimir in a dirty and stained wife-beater, waving a Makarov around drunkenly, and screaming to the police that only if that bitch hadn’t fought back she wouldn’t be dead. That’s exactly the same mentality going on in regards Ukraine and Russkiy Mir.

Next up, a Russian success. Let’s say they seize Donbas and more. It won’t matter who declares a truce or peace, if you think the fighting will magically stop, again, I have that bridge for sale. Within occupied areas, insurrection and covert operations will abound. There will also be atrocities, as Russian doctrine calls for examples to be made. This will backfire, and whatever is left of Ukrainian armed forces and government, in what’s left or in exile, will both make the most of it and find interesting and creative ways to extract revenge.

Which again could lead to the use of special weapons by either side. Please do keep in mind that special is not just nuclear, but chemical, biological, radiological, thermobaric (according to some), etc. Ukraine has shown itself to be intelligent, imaginative, and delightfully devious when it comes to improvising or developing new weapons.

A Russian success will become a meatgrinder, mostly for them. Civilians will suffer and die, but I’d be willing to bet that Russian military and civilian losses in trying to occupy any or all of Ukraine will make the losses so far seem pale. You are already seeing a taste of this in Donbas and elsewhere. Problem is, this is exactly the scenario of Russia can’t win but Ukraine can lose. This is also, despite the fact that Russia will make a lot of threats towards anyone they even remotely suspect might be helping Ukrainian partisans or military, the scenario that I see as least likely to lead to any truly global war of any type. Nasty and heartbreaking, yes. A world ender, no.

Also, for reasons political and demographic, I don’t think the Russians will be able to hold. It may be weeks or it may be a decade, but they will not hold. When they withdraw, unless otherwise prevented, they will go scorched Earth and do as much damage as possible. Again, the mentality of ‘the bitch resisted’ is already evident and will only get worse.

The next case is Ukrainian victories. This offers in some ways the best chance to end the war, but also the highest likelihood of the use of special weapons by Russia.

Let’s say that Ukraine has spent the winter gathering supplies, getting logistics repaired and expanded, making plans and contingencies, and integrating and exploiting troops that have been being trained abroad. Keep in mind one of the things smart militaries do with such trained people is have them share that training as often and as quickly as they can. They also practice via simulations in the field and electronic before heading out for real. So far, the Ukrainian military appears to be fighting smart, so…

The more they retake, the more desperate the Russians will get. Which leads to three potential scenarios and outcomes.

In the first, military success prompts someone to use some form of special weapon to stop the advance. Net result is the offensive stalls, and both sides settle down behind current lines to lick their wounds. A temporary truce of shock, exhaustion and retrenchment takes place. It is quite possible that a peace may can be brokered, but I would give odds that it would be along the lines noted above and used as a time to prepare.

In the second, the use of one or more special weapons creates a crisis for Russian leadership, one that causes a fight for succession to break out. Another variant of this is for Vladimir to become medically or otherwise incapacitated, a fight for succession breaks out, and Ukraine smartly and adroitly exploits it. Keep in mind, there are multiple variants for each of the scenarios I’m providing. In any event, given losses, restiveness in various areas far from Moscow, and even covert actions by China and others, the Russian Federation starts to come apart. In this case, it does lead to execution of Russia’s version of Case Zulu, and things go south for the world. Shall we not play that game please?

The third, final, and absolute best case I can see is also the one I think is least likely to happen though it is the absolute best case for the world. In that case, Case Zulu is avoided, and smart leadership world-wide steps in to not just engineer a soft landing for the various sections of the Russian Federation and Russia itself, but works hard to help them thrive and grow, while eliminating as much of the nuclear threat as possible. China might well do it in more than one area out of self-interest, and Japan might also see opportunities in paying forward their part of reconstruction in Kamchatka and other far east regions. Get the islands back, secure a flank, and create some enormous economic opportunities for all parties.

The best path I see not just out of this war, but to prevent any number of future conflicts and to greatly reduce the threat of a global nuclear war, is for Russia to break up as peacefully as possible. That third scenario really will require the good fairy to wave her wand, as we’ve not really done it successfully so far. For all that the USSR broke up surprisingly softly, that was as much luck as competent leadership, nor did parties around the world truly work towards success. If they had, we would not now have Russkiy Mir and other delights of the current Russian Federation.

As I’ve noted before, do keep in mind that the current top crop of potential successors to Vladimir are all more hardline than he is in terms of Ukraine and Russkiy Mir. They are all of the Slavophile camp, and detest the West and those who feel the West has anything to offer Russia, Greater Russia, or the Slavic people. There are no members of the Western Thought Club anywhere near top or even mid-level leadership positions in Russia.

The fact is, there are far more opportunities for things to go south than to end in a peaceful, equitable, and just peace. That said, with even median leadership, we have a good chance to prevent the use of special weapons, or to at least limit the use so that things don’t lead to a full exchange on the nuclear level. With our current leadership around the world? Well… If we find good leadership and get it in positions to do good? That would be great, but it is not the way to bet.

The best we can do is work towards the best possible outcomes as we can, to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

As a final note, China is the potential wrench in the gears. Xi is in trouble, and as such is pushing as hard and fast as he can at Taiwan and the U.S. His actions are not those of a strong and stable leader, but one weak and unstable internally. That said, China has a military that would appear to be able to do more than hold its own. It is a very serious threat to the U.S., and to Russia as well. The fractals that come from including China in various scenarios related to Ukraine as well as nuclear war are somewhat overwhelming.

Keep in mind that there are parties involved world-wide. What allies on both sides do, when they do it, and how they do it, will truly determine the course of the war, and its expansion or end. It is a complex situation with multiple scenarios at each point. In other words, it’s the real world as opposed to the happy shiny world of simplistic platitudes and virtue signaling. Simple would be nice, I admit. I just don’t see it anywhere in the real world. I wish I did.

Final thought: The fighting will resume and soon. I fully expect to see some Russian victories and some Ukrainian victories. Which side seizes the momentum and makes the most of it will depend on logistics, morale, and training. Wait. Watch. Pray.