Category: Military

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Uncertainty And Preparation

Retribution Inbound

Honest Question

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Honest Question

Given all we have learned about Russian Army, Navy, and Air Force maintenance, what makes anyone think their nuclear maintenance is going to be any better?

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Uncertainty And Preparation

Retribution Inbound

*****

Uncertainty And Preparation

Not much to say about the Ukraine situation today. The Russians are building up forces and supplies, but exactly when, where, and how they kick off remains to be seen. Trying to run down some information, but it’s not exactly like you can call someone up and say ‘Joeski, were those chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons you were loading?’ It’s not something where you could go into the deep/dark web for the modern equivalent of a dead letter drop. There does appear to be some validity to the charge that the Moskva was carrying at least two nuclear weapons, but it is not absolutely positively beyond-all-doubt confirmed. Just mostly confirmed.

If the pointers continue to point in a particular direction, I’m going to be amending my 60/40 odds. In fact, I’m likely to move it substantially higher.

I am laughing a bit at Vladimir getting called out about putting nukes into the Baltic. At least one government has pointed out that he already has them there, and asks if he’s going to send more? The loss of prestige and fear of the Russian bear is being clearly demonstrated.

In response to the question of what I would recommend stocking up on right now, I would say this. I think you should already have some stocks of food and other supplies in place. Given what we are seeing on U.S. winter wheat as well as problems world-wide, I’ve picked up some pasta and flour even though I do keto. I would also look at things like baking chocolate, tea, coffee — the things that come from areas that are likely to be hit hard by shortages and famine, and have to be transported by ship to get here. If you use a supplement(s) that depends on overseas production or raw ingredients, stock up. Same on spices. There’s no need to panic, but if you can flesh out your grocery list so that you are set at need.

Meantime, I’m going to continue to see what I can find out, what turns up, and hope that nothing blows up this weekend.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Retribution Inbound

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Retribution Inbound

I mentioned yesterday that there would have to be a military response to the loss of the Moskva. After all, it was far more than just the flagship of the Black Sea fleet. It was, in many ways, the symbol of the Navy and modern Russia. It was the site of state visits and ceremonial occasions.

Back during the Reagan administration, I offended some DC-types (one of many times) by pointing out that if you viewed countries as toddlers, you got a much better idea of what they would do, how, and when than off of computer models. After all, computer models suffer from the GIGO law (garbage in, garbage out) and our models have been full of garbage far longer than Trent Telenko covers in this excellent post. More on the corruption of intelligence later, but it has been corrupted for decades.

The toddler model has been accurate more than 99 percent of the time. Just apply the so-called toddler laws and typical actions of toddlers, and it is scary just how accurate it is in predicting the actions of a nation. No, this is not saying that the leaders of the country (or countries) are toddlers or are of that intellectual level (though some have been, and are now I suspect). In fact, I’ve met some political and other leaders who were some of the sharpest people out there. The problem is that the individuals are not the nation, and they have to act as that nation with all the pride, possessiveness, and outrage that arise during crisis. Just think of the toddler who gets hit, or has their toy taken, and how they will either run and cry, or puff up and go after the culprit.

I bring this up because right now, Vladimir is going to have to retaliate for the loss of the Moskva. Pride (and desperation) leave him no choice. It is going to have to be big, for this was a big loss.

That said, if they were going to be smart about it, they would do something to help shape the battlespace in the East or possibly the South to preempt the Ukrainians from taking advantage of how the loss of the Moskva puts the South into play. They will also not say that the Ukraine sank the ship; rather, they should say ‘since they want to take credit for the loss, they should pay as if they had’ things. Not betting on smart though.

That would be smart. Yet, there is going to be a lot of push to hit something as symbolic for the Ukrainians as the Moskva was for the Russians. Kyiv? A person or group of people? It is going to have to be big, powerful, and ugly otherwise it is yet another failure for Vladimir.

Despite what many seem to think, there are serious cracks in the foundation of his rule. In fact, it almost has the appearance of a safety-glass window that is shattered but not yet fallen out of the frame… He can still hold things together, but it is taking a good bit of effort. Too many more surprises, however, and it will shatter. In that case, I have doubts that anyone replacing him will be an improvement.

All that said, he is going to have to retaliate. It is going to have to be big and nasty. His conventional forces, particularly the Army, can’t be guaranteed to give him what he needs. So, how will he strike back, when will he strike back, and where will he strike back? All good questions without a good (or pleasant) answer.

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Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

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The Moskva

Updated. See below.

Right now, the only things known with any certainty are that the Moskva (Moscow) is abandoned and burning. Given that there is a storm as well makes life interesting for the Russian Navy and for efforts to get any commercial overhead imagery.

The Russians claim that there was a fire onboard, and that the fire caused ammunition to explode. That the Russian Navy has quite the reputation for fires and explosions on its ships and submarines is a given. They’ve even had the issue pop up in land-based storage bunkers as well. Seems to be a split between faulty ammunition/propellants and people sneaking off to smoke or do other things in places they shouldn’t. The latter should be taken with some salt, as often the easiest thing to do (and it’s not limited to the Russian Navy, cough, cough) is to blame the dead to hide the real problems. To that end, the homework of the day is to read this from Trent Telenko.

I’m finding the Ukrainian response amusing. Elements of the Ukrainian government have claimed credit for the kill (and trust me, this is a hard kill even if it doesn’t sink). They claim two Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles were fired at the ship, which may also have been harassed by a drone to distract the crew ahead of the missiles. Zelensky seems to have stopped short of taking credit, instead joking that maybe a couple of sailors were smoking where they shouldn’t, or that some of the other things the Russian Navy has used for excuses in the past took place. Epic, and I do mean EPIC, trolling.

Even if Vladimir tries to blame the loss on the U.S. or NATO, the loss of the Moskva is going to be gutting to Russian morale. On the one hand, you have the government saying ‘Hey, we had yet another fire and explosion, oops.’ On the other, you have the Ukrainians getting a huge morale boost even if the Russians continue to deny they hit it.

Operationally, Black Sea fleet ops have taken a major hit. This was their flagship, and it also had an impact on land operations by the Ukrainians since it could hit ground and air targets a fair distance inland. If the Ukrainians did indeed hit it as part of battlespace preparation, it was a brilliant move. They now can use air assets in regions previously denied; they’ve eliminated a good chunk of naval fire support for Russian ground troops; they’ve hampered naval operations which may let them do a bit more at sea; and, they’ve hammered Russian civilian and military morale even as they’ve boosted their own. This is only going to accelerate some of the issues with Russian contract and conscript troops who are voting with their feet as it were.

This is going to reshape Southern operations. The Ukrainians have just gained strategic and tactical flexibility previously denied. The Russian troops have just lost the assurance of naval support. Both sides are going to be rethinking operations and changing deployments accordingly. While this looks to be a good thing for the Ukrainians, it could also put the Russian Private Military Contractor (PMC) troops and troops from other countries, into a position where the use of chemical weapons is likely to increase. Right now, I’m agnostic on if they have already been used and am waiting for better data before drawing any conclusions. It would not, however, in any way be surprising if they had done so. While this will also reshape Eastern operations, the largest impact will be on the South.

Finally, this is a hard kill. The ability to return it to service anytime soon is about zero. Think about what happened to the USS Bonhomme Richard. Damage to the structure of the ship is going to be extensive, particularly since the crew had to abandon ship. There are reports that counterflooding was used, which also adds to the structural damage and the need to clean, neutralize the corrosion, and repair those areas. Even if the damage were minimal, and there is no reason to believe it is, you are still talking weeks to months in dry dock.

As with the Bonhomme Richard, the odds are that even if it survives enough to be towed to port, it will be cheaper and easier to rebuild it rather than try to repair it. Which brings up the fact that the Russians may not be able to do that either. Between a lack of skilled workers, the metals and parts, the need for machinery that may not be operational because of the sanctions, and the corruption that is modern Russia, I’m not sure they can rebuild it. Even if Putin or his successor makes it a Hero Project to keep the normal graft at bay.

As a complete aside, I’m tempted to start a pool on when and if Vladimir was told about this. Given that he (and Xi) have in the past literally shot the messenger (to be fair and accurate, had them shot), you know that no one wanted to be the one to tell him. I’m just about willing to bet that the first notification was couched in as positive terms as possible (small fire Comrade, they have it out soon!). I’m also wondering what he will say about it, as he will HAVE to say something about it, if only to try to minimize the hit to morale. Which also brings up what Vladimir is ultimately told, as that will affect both what he says and any military response. And, yes, you can pretty much count on some form of military response even if he goes with the ‘accident on board’ route and denies the Ukraine did anything.

Keep in mind, Vladmir is in a bubble, where the rule is only tell him what he wants to hear. Bad things happen to those who don’t do that. Such only makes the bubble thicker and larger as those closest to him also are not told what they don’t want to hear or have get to Vladimir.

His response will be interesting. It will also likely tell us a great deal about what he was told. One can only hope that he doesn’t decide to roll the dice again on the basis of losing the Moskva. Again (and again) desperate people do stupid things.

UPDATE: It is now confirmed. The Moscow is now the latest destination for glass-bottom boat tours.

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Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

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Past, Present, And A Hungry Future

This morning’s homework is fairly easy and quick. First, go read Kamil Galeev on Vladimir’s rise to power. Then, Trent Telenko has an interesting take on cohesive teams, and some strong thoughts on the de-escalation team in the Biden administration.

If you are not reading Kamil Galeev on a regular basis, you should be. Yes, he has his own biases and a somewhat unique position and perspective on things. That doesn’t mean that he isn’t sharing a lot of good information. This morning’s read is one of many that get into Russian politics in a way that is probably too “inside baseball” for many — including our politicians and intelligence agencies — but make a fascinating and fact-filled bit of food for thought. It also drives home that it is a very different system, which makes a good reminder of the danger of mores when evaluating people and events.

Also, within that, notice some of the names. Several of them feature strongly in what is going on today, and in particular I want to point out the role of Abramovitch in Putin’s rise. There are still pieces in this tale that are missing and/or don’t make sense when it comes to that man and his actions. Those pieces have the potential to be crucial when it comes to the step after next.

It is also worth noting the mass arrests underway. To say the FSB is being purged is both accurate and potentially an understatement. The question being are they getting rid of the deadwood or is the deadwood getting rid of those who could be a threat to them? You should also pull from the homework above that past support and assistance to Vladimir gets you nothing. What matters is the here and now, and if saving his skin means sacrificing even those (formerly) close to him, well, it’s a sacrifice he will cheerfully make.

With the purge underway, it also makes the question of if there will be FSB or other special units involved with upcoming military operations in the style of what KGB special troops performed in the Soviet Army. If you weren’t familiar with them, they were the troops that made the point that if you advanced you might die; but, if you failed to advance or follow a given order, you would die. Charming people.

The first Telenko video shows not only how you do it, but the absolute failure of U.S. Intelligence, who completely missed that the Ukrainians could do it. That they could have teams that had built the absolute trust necessary for that type of operation. Pro Tip: to have that degree of target focus you have to have absolute trust in your partner/team. That doesn’t happen overnight. Following up on yesterday and comments here and at the links, do you really think any intelligence agency or analyst did even the most cursory debrief of the troops we had over there advising and training? How many other incorrect, incomplete, biased, and outdated assumptions are in our assessment of both the Ukraine and of Russia? Elsewhere? Members of Congress and others really do need to be asking some strong and pointed questions of our intelligence agencies.

As for the second Telenko link, I think he’s correct and he does have a point. However, I don’t think Vladimir will just sit by if we start supplying major weapons systems to the Ukraine. He literally can’t, and assuming (against all odds) that there is someone competent in government service, a realistic assessment of Vladimir’s options is needed before upping the ante in this way. It is the same as establishing a no-fly zone: it’s pretty much guaranteed to start WWIII on a grand scale.

I will also say that I share Telenko’s contempt for the so-called de-escalation faction in the Biden administration. The disaster that is the invasion and it’s start are on them almost as much as it was on Vladimir. Their foot dragging ultimately increased casualties on both sides, civilian and military. Their continued foot dragging is virtually guaranteed to escalate the situation. They are not serious people and they do not have a fucking clue.

I’m hoping that the Russian’s delay their new offensive for a few days longer. It’s not hard to figure out that Ukrainian logistics systems are overwhelmed. This has prevented efforts to push back on the Russians, to liberate Mariupol and get ready for the next attack on it, and to prepare in depth for the new offensive. They are doing what appears to be an amazing job, based on what I am getting. It’s just that they need supplies and help too. Since it is logistics that are ultimately going to decide things, I hope they get the support they need.

Now, every expert and armchair tactician and strategist is opining on what the Russians will do next. Let me set an example and state that while I have suspicions, I don’t have a flippin clue exactly what they will do and how. There are troop buildups that give hints, and I can offer a couple of takes on things.

I would expect to see large numbers of troops used to seize what would normally be considered small objectives. I would expect to see units used to test trying to do things differently this time. In the long term, the Russians pretty much have to take the Donbas and the Southern front and ports. They might could try to claim victory with just the Donbas (and the land bridge to the Crimea), but that will fool no one and Putin will die.

While not very professional, I have to admit I am laughing at how far behind the front lines they are unloading troops and ammo. It says volumes of their consideration of Ukrainian capabilities.

The other thing I expect to see is efforts made to prevent planting and other food production efforts over the widest area possible. If Vladimir can cut off the ability to export wheat and other products, it cuts off hard cash and the ability to buy weapons. Hence, one of the reasons (among many) to seize the ports. It also makes starvation a weapon against the Ukrainians. That is Vladimir’s focus on this tangent, though those around him might want to consider the wider context.

If you watched and read the links over the last week, it was pointed out how many areas/nations are dependent on the fertilizer/fertilizer components exported by China, Russia, and the Ukraine. It was pointed out how many areas/nations are dependent on wheat imports from the Ukraine, Russia, and elsewhere. Now, take a moment to go read this, this, and this. Now, does anyone remember what happened the last time there were shortages of wheat that didn’t rise to the potential levels we are looking at today? Bueller? Bueller?

Anyone remember Arab spring and the revolutions and unrest it sparked? What happens when it’s not just the Middle East/North Africa that’s starving?

Now there’s the scary thought. The Middle East and Africa are bad enough, but consider that while there is not likely to be starvation, you are going to be talking shortages in Europe and Asia. It is a situation that in some ways would be even more flipped up than Europe in 1914. Welcome back Carter my fuzzy fluffy rump… We should be so lucky.

Do keep in mind, the nice thing about looking into the Mirror of Galadriel is that it can show you what will happen; but, it can also show you what might happen. To be blunt, a great deal of analysis right now is looking into the Mirror. We can see what might happen, but the choices of individuals can change what happens. Remember, the so-called experts looked into the Mirror and confidently said that the Afghans would hold for six months, and the Ukrainians for 72 hours. Decisions by individuals high and low rendered that moot.

The one thing about which I have confidence is that it is going to be nasty, brutal, and bloody. If you think the special troops with the lists were busy before in torturing and executing civilians, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Especially with even some of the Russians/Russophiles in the Donbas getting cold feet. Vladimir has to go all in, he has no other choice. Buckle up.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

The Threat Horizon Expands

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The Threat Horizon Expands

Before we get into things today, here’s some homework you need to do first. Trent Telenko has an amazing series on logistics here, here, here, here, and here. Take a few minutes to go read them, as while they are not long they are packed with information. Then go read this post on the (latest) major failure of our intelligence services. Then, as a final treat, read this post on a way to rapidly bring Ukrainian forces up to speed on our major weapons systems.

Now, lets jump to a brief discussion of the General that Putin has now put in charge: Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov. It may surprise you to know that he is one of the few (like two) members of the Russian military leadership with actual military experience. If you didn’t know that most of the leadership are civilians appointed as Generals, you didn’t read the links in previous posts. You probably also missed how this aided the kleptocracy and means that Russian troops are understrength and undersupplied even at the best of times.

I agree with Donald Sensing that the war has gotten larger. I disagree with him that the recent attacks take the peace talks out of play. There has been no real way for Vladimir to exit almost from the start. While Biden’s verbal incontinence didn’t help anything, Vladimir rolled the dice knowing that there would either be victory or death. Demographics, economics, and other considerations made this very much a last desperate roll of the dice. Thus, I fully agree with Donald Sensing that Plan B is scorched earth.

Why? Let’s go back to General Dvornikov. He has combat experience from the second Chechen war and Syria. The latter is very important. Why? Well, check out this story and this story about his time in Syria and his nickname. You may also remember him from the Kerch Straight incident. He is aggressive, hasn’t blinked at the use of chemical weapons, and not likely to blink at using the full CBN portfolio per doctrine at Vladimir’s order. To be honest, I have a small suspicion that he might not wait for the order, much less be shy about asking for release. I also strongly suspect that such discussions have already taken place.

Now, let’s jump away for a minute to talk about some of the problems facing Gen. Dvornikov. The Russian Army is stuck with a 1920s/30s logistics system. Per previous posts and links, we know that they literally — in far too many cases — can’t operate off roadways. It’s not just the flooding and the normal mud of this time of year, it’s a lack of significant training in land nav along with crap equipment. Which means they can’t control the land between the roadways, even where such are relatively close together.

Because of the kleptocracy, many if not most units are potentially twenty five percent understrength. Supplies, systems, and parts have been sold on the black so that the troops were not only getting frostbite, but important systems like tanks, APCs, rockets, and missiles were non-functional. There are a growing number of reports that units in the East/South areas are refusing orders and attempts to use conscripts from the enclaves in the Donbas are not going well. Never mind that though they appear to be attempting to push some of the units from the retreat in the North into the East, the attempts aren’t going well, especially in units that were effectively destroyed.

So, the Russians are calling up the reserves. They pretty much have to as they can’t really pull troops out of other areas. The problem is, those reserves have many of the same training issues and getting working gear to them is going to be an interesting exercise. If they even have that gear.

It may be that Vladimir is counting on sheer numbers to get results. If so, this is going to be a long bloody slog. It may be that he will try to increase attacks on Ukrainian logistics to do to them what they did to him. It is fairly obvious that previous attacks on Ukrainian logistics have had some serious effects, and that such are one of the reasons they’ve not been able to take full advantage of some recent opportunities.

Vladimir is desperate that the Ukraine not be resupplied. Hence all the bluster coming out about the bad things that will happen to anyone who tries to supply the Ukraine with anything (or even breathe heavily towards Moscow). The problem is, many are dismissing it as impotent bluster. I see it as yet one more sign of desperation, and desperate people do stupid things. Dvornikov is not someone who will tell Vladimir no, keep that in mind. The threats are not a bluff, though if they work they will take the victory and nod and smile when people say “good bluff.”

If Vladimir throws sufficient numbers of troops into the war, he can overwhelm the Ukraine. He can’t hold it, however. The big problem for the numbers game is one simple word: leadership. The Russian Army was already short on real leadership, and since the fighting started they have been brutally culled by the Ukrainians. The problems with training, lack of fighting spirit, and other issues are requiring Generals and Colonels be near or even in the units being directed to attack. This also puts them in exposed positions, that coupled with the com situation from hell, let the Ukrainians do some serious targeting. Keep in mind that the problems with leadership extend to all ranks of leadership. What this means is that even with numbers, without good leadership at all levels, they are going to have a hard time doing even basic things, and the losses that result will make their losses so far seem like a love tap.

So, what do I expect? I think Dvornikov is going to have to bring in a lot of leadership, if it is there for him to get. I think that in terms of brutality towards the Ukrainian people, the civilian population, we ain’t seen nothing yet. Dvornikov is used to using air power, and it will be interesting to see if he can get it to use here. In Syria, there really wasn’t any threat to the air power (other than the U.S.), whereas now it will be a contested battle. I also expect to see a lot more effort put into destroying Ukrainian agriculture. This is both to starve them, and to put a stop to exports that bring in hard currency that can be used to get more military equipment… And if the Middle East and other areas starve, well, maybe those governments will try to force a peace that meets Russian standards. I also think that the potential use of special weapons has increased. For now, I am holding at 60/40, but will revise that once the Russians show more of their hand. I also expect to see the outright execution of unit leaders and troops who refuse orders or otherwise fail to perform.

Once again, let me make clear that I feel it would be a huge mistake guaranteed to bring on WWIII if we try to impose a no-fly zone or otherwise take a direct role in the fighting. This is not our fight. It is the Ukrainians and I want to see them given everything we can possibly give them in terms of supplies. Is Trent Telenko’s idea to get them major systems a good one? I think it is workable, but if it is done, don’t be surprised if Vladimir widens the war even further.

Some Previous Posts:

Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

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War, Ag, Demographics, And The Worst Is Yet To Come

Russia’s efforts to focus on the Donbas and the Southern front are proving interesting. There are a number of reports coming out that if they are indeed true, could well mean that Russia’s new offensive will have even more problems than the attempt on Kyiv. Hoping to learn more over the weekend.

If it is true that Gen Dvornikov has taken over command of the offensive, brutal will take on an entirely new meaning. Check his record in Syria (and before) He’s already been linked to the rocket attack on the evacuees. Mostly women and children? No matter, besides they aren’t as likely to fight back and inflict casualties.

There are reports that Russia is going to mobilize 60,000 reservists. Desperation play, especially given that they have taken horrendous casualties and a large number of units are combat ineffective because of losses. More on this next week.

As for Vladimir attending the funeral with the “football” at hand? Great theatre and preys upon the Biden administrations fear of starting WWIII. It upsets the neighbors too, which is more than half the point. It was a bit of psyop just to poke back at the people who have been poking him and now his family.

Now, some food for thought with a different twist. I can talk about Russkiy Mir until I’m blue in the face, and share insights all day long. I can continue to point out that we have a world without a single major power having stable leadership. Below are two presentations dealing with demographics that, while I don’t agree with some of his conclusions (he apparently believed the Ukraine would fall and fast), there is a LOT of good information there.

And, yet more info and some additional thoughts on ag and more

Some people I know on social media have been talking about ag issues for some time now. Jake Freivald has been on this one for a while, noting that it could get interesting here but will be devastating elsewhere. Linking to a couple of his citations: a look at the fertilizer crisis and problems with our winter wheat crop. There is already an impact in Europe, and it’s likely to get worse. We will adapt and overcome. Most of the world’s farmlands outside the U.S. have to have fertilizer, and lots of it. China, Russia, and the Ukraine will not be exporting this year. This is going to be devastating.

Oh, and just a note that the Russians are once again using starvation as a weapon in the Ukraine.

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Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine

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Mismatched Locomotives

I’m going to make this short and sweet, given that I’m still buried in paperwork. Here’s some food for thought for the day.

First up, Kamil Galeev, with further proof that’s he’s more on the ball than all the Western intelligence agencies combined. It is long, but well worth the read. I will admit, I’m one who missed the ’68 steal — I should have caught that.

Second, Trent Telenko makes an excellent point on targeting. The Ukraine would be stupid to go after thanks and such with the new drones. So far, they’ve avoided that. Let’s hope they continue to fight smart.

He also has a message for the flags in the Pentagon. It’s an old one. I once got to be a part of upgrading computers at a military installation, one that almost got someone courtmartialed. We pulled it off, and while we couldn’t get everyone up to what the corporate world was doing (had to do a bunch of it as non-PCs because of contract, at least we got rid of the 8″ floppy discs), it was a huge step up.

Chew on this food for thought for a bit. There is more to come.

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Answers, Ramblings, And A Bit More On Vladimir And The Ukraine