Coronavirus Update

Again, I have to start by saying there is no need to panic (yet) if you are in the United States. Running around in a mask and/or exposure suits is not helpful or smart, nor is making a “joke” and saying you have it: both types of things just point out that you are a dumbass.

Is there reason to worry? Yes. Now that even the WHO is reported as saying that there are likely more than 100,000 cases (mostly in China), it provides some validation to this study, this study, and this study.

As I’ve said before, the Chinese government has lied from the start about the disease and how bad it is. Read this article about what is coming out of China, and this article by Rod Dreher. The last also brings up two things that you do need to know about, along with some heartbreaking information from inside China.

The first is that the medical gear/drug shortage in China is not just a Chinese problem. It is also a problem here, in that there are already shortages here. It is going to get worse before it gets better. A number of people have argued for some time that it was not a good idea to become so heavily dependent on China for medicines and medical gear [not to mention electronics (including efforts to make us dependent upon them for military electronics) along with other finished products and raw goods]. Using regulation and other tactics to push things overseas was seen as a positive foreign policy in regards China and trying to control it. I would call it what I think of that policy, but am trying to some degree to keep this PG-13. Is this all going to have an impact on the US, Chinese, and global economies? Yep.

The second thing was a twitter link that Rod added to the article. I pulled up the source site for the graphic, and found it interesting to look at China and compare it to the interactive graphic from Johns Hopkins I’ve been linking to on a regular basis. I’m still playing with the data a bit, but I do find the correlation between high sulfur dioxide levels coming out of the cities with known high contagion rates interesting. Yes, it does appear to suggest that crematoriums are working overtime. And possibly in areas where there are no official cases…

If the models are correct, and if even the current official reports from China are correct, it appears that 2019-nCoV is more contagious than originally thought (hoped). The death rate, based on official figures, is approaching five percent however. If the unofficial reports coming out of China are correct, it is potentially much higher.

I wish the travel restrictions had been implemented much sooner. Then, you might not be reading about new cases in England and elsewhere, and the efforts to locate and test everyone those tourists contacted/interacted with during their trip. If the current restrictions and quarantines had been implemented even a week sooner, it would have taken thousands of potential transmission opportunities off the board. This article from Scientific American looks at some possibilities that are not good.

For all that I trust the WHO about as much as I do the Chinese government, they have daily situation updates that are a resource as you monitor what is going on.

So, should you panic? No. Should you be concerned? Yes. What is going on worries me, which on my personal defcon levels is a step above concerned. What am I doing? I’m watching, reading, and researching. Yes, I have started beefing up some of my normal levels of preparedness. If nothing happens, what I’ve gotten will get eaten, used, etc. in the normal course of life. More on preparedness later.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

Keeping Alert

There is a difference between being alert and in a panic, a distinction that is lost (or deliberately ignored) by those of our “betters” sniffing in disdain and saying the current nCoV outbreak is nothing to worry about and it will fizzle out like SARS. Such people are, for the most part, educated idiots without much of a clue. The rest of us do not, yet, have a true clue but we know that and acknowledge it.

Yesterday, there was briefly some hope that this would be like SARS: deadly, contagious (particularly in non-first-world areas), and brief. This hope was very short lived. Note that the chart(s) are part of the link I provided yesterday to keep up on things.

Here’s a good post on part of the poor response to the outbreak by all levels of the Chinese government. Here’s another take by a medical professional.

In the “closing the barn door” department, we have this, this, this, and this. In the department of “Duh” we have this. I think SF activating it’s EOC is both prudent and interesting. This is a neat fact: an AI system issued an alert for the virus a week before WHO, CDC, et. al. For the record, I think we should have shut down air/sea with China already, and that the evacuation of Americans in Wuhan directly to CONUS without quarantine offshore is a mistake.

That’s all I have time for this morning, hope to get back into some of the background, and some discussion on practical preparedness in the days ahead. Stay safe.

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

I had originally planned to write about the bigotry of Stephen King and some other authors along with a miserable trope in USA channel movies, but that will have to be later this week. Instead, I need to cover a more important subject.

There is a lot being written about the coronavirus that is raging across China, and headed world-wide. A coronavirus is any of a family of single-stranded RNA viruses that has a lipid envelope with club-shaped projections. Some of the family don’t really have a negative affect on humans; but, some strains do. While a suspect for some cases of gastroenteritis, the ones that do effect humans do so through the respiratory system. The common cold is a coronavirus.

Unfortunately, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) are both of the coronavirus family. The strain currently spreading from Wuhan (2019-nCoV) is a new strain and is similar to SARS.

It can infect human lungs as easily as the common cold, it can be passed person-to-person (patient to caregiver is confirmed), and while England has issued some strong precautions, at least one of the cases in the US is being treated by telemedicine as much as possible.

Also understand that the Chinese government has lied about this disease from the start, and there is no reason for them to stop. They are severely censoring information as fast and as hard as they can. They are taking the virus seriously, but the question is will their efforts be effective. As a bit of background (hope to add more later), when the Chinese government was admitting to 50 cases, outside experts pegged it at 1,700. That was on the 18th, and there are reports suggesting that while there are roughly 3,000 confirmed cases, that the actual infection rate is in excess of 90,000 people.

Is there cause to panic? No. Is there cause to be concerned? Yes. A good resource for keeping up with the current outbreak is here.

What can and should you do? Well, I think having 3-7 days of food and water is a good start for anything. I try to keep that and a bit more (so I have a month’s supply of coffee, don’t judge my addictions) on hand at all times. For other reasons, I’ve been upping some of my preparations. If you don’t have a 3-7 day supply of food, water, medicines, supplements, and basic supplies, it is good to get and maintain them for general preparedness purposes.

If this does turn into a true global pandemic similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu (or worse), then you are talking a different level of preparedness. For that you will need 4-6 weeks worth of water, food, and supplies.

I will discuss practical preparedness, as well as preparedness for a pandemic more in the days ahead.