COVID19 Update

There has been a massive jump in cases and deaths, pretty much all from/in China on the quick look.

There have been several previous reports that COVID19 spreads before symptoms appear (asymptomatic), but this NEJM article would seem to confirm that. Such a confirmation will change both how it is handled and the models on spread. It may also mean that efforts to contain it outside China may be in severe trouble.

Efforts to develop an effective vaccine continue, but are most likely a year away. That said, the U.S. government is providing direct funding to both vaccine and treatment development.

In light of this previous post, I do find it interesting that Xi had far earlier awareness of the situation than previously reported. This, along with asymptomatic transmission, are two things I would have expected were it some form of bioweapon that got out. Again, that is not saying it is: in fact, I still remain somewhere between neutral and no-it’s-not camps. But, these are two interesting data points. As is the Chinese Ambassador’s comments on the speculation by Sen. Tom Cotton. Note that he does not deny, but pivots to a different point. Again, an interesting data point.

There is more to discuss, including the apparent failure of many quarantines in China and with the cruise ship. In regards the ship, as noted in the linked article yesterday, something went very wrong.

Meantime, per the interactive graphic, it is still an epidemic and not a pandemic. Should you panic? No. Should you be paying attention and making preparations as discussed yesterday? Yes. Hell yes. Do I still expect the major hits to be economic? Yes, based on what we know right now.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, then follow with hand sanitizer, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. In other words, standard flu protocols.

And while I’m thinking about it, there are two books I highly recommend for those interested in preparedness. Neither applies directly to this situation, but both capture the right mindset almost perfectly. The first is Alas Babylon, and for it’s age the lessons in it remain timeless. The second is Pulling Through by Dean Ing. Dean has written extensively on preparedness and survival, and I highly commend his works to you. And, yes, I am an Amazon Affiliate, see the disclaimers as you cheap jerks have yet to buy enough through my links for me to get paid.

Also, if you would like some good bio background as well as a fun read, allow me to recommend Under A Graveyard Sky by John Ringo. It looks at an engineered bioweapon that does a number on humanity. I’ve not been into the whole zombie thing (at least on a literary front), but as with almost all of John’s work, the series has been a fantastic read and well worth re-reading. Let’s hope we never live a Ringo novel of any type, especially this one or The Last Centurion.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

Be Prepared

Two simple words. Yet, words that can and have had tremendous impact on myself and others. I came to embrace them as a Boy Scout, and have found over the years that preparedness always, always pays.

The media likes to portray all who prepare as poorly educated nuts preparing to fight off the government. Yes, there are nuts just like that, but most who prepare are simply being prudent. Keep in mind that almost every household has at least some, occasionally small, start at preparedness.

We keep bandaids just in case. Preparedness. We have batteries for toys and more serious things. Preparedness. Some of us have multiple lighters, and even matches, in case we need to light a cigar or a candle. Preparedness. Most households have cans of food in the pantry and things to eat in the refrigerator that can feed us for several days. Preparedness.

The degree of preparedness taken is up to the individual. Given where I live, I tend to keep 3-5 days of food, water, medicines, and basic supplies simply because we get ice, snow, tornadoes and damaging winds, and even the occasional (small, thankfully) earthquake over the course of a year. In short, there are things that can happen that could trap me in my home for a day or three. If so, I have what I need to survive in style.

If there is something else happening — civil unrest, terrorist attack, epidemic, major earthquake — I have the means to quickly up my level of preparedness. I can and will fill emergency containers with water while it lasts. I have several tanks of propane for the grill (actually my landlord’s grill), burner (closest I can find to what I have), and smoker, and they provide one means of cooking food at need. Another is a portable chef’s stove (note: link similar to mine) I’ve used for years at events, for which I keep a reserve of butane.

And, yes, I am an Amazon Affiliate and if you use those links and buy something I may one day finally earn enough to get paid.

Note something with the above. These are all things that I use on a regular basis. They are things many people have. Preparedness isn’t about getting things you never use except in an emergency, at it’s core it’s about making the most of what you already have or are likely to get to improve your life. Yes, there are some things that you may not use except in an emergency, but most have everyday uses.

A good example, and an good example of preparedness paying comes from collapsable water containers. This one is great for camping or backpacking; this one for camping; this one is very good for emergencies (and this one is double the use) but may have other uses. Don’t backpack or camp? Keep one in the car.

Why keep one in the car? A number of years ago, some people I knew had a hose rupture on their car as they were on a remote section of interstate. Using materials they had on hand for an emergency, they fashioned a patch for the hose that would hold until they could reach an exit where they could replace the hose. They then took a collapsable water container down to a nearby creek and filled it up. With that, they refilled the radiator so that they could drive the car. The state trooper who stopped to check on them just as they were finishing up was shocked and pleased with what they had done.

Note also that they avoided being stranded for hours or longer, avoided a major towing bill, avoided having to be towed to a mechanic they did not know and had no choice about, and avoided their car being further damaged by unsafe operation. They were, for about $20 worth of preparation, able to safely drive to a location where they could safely obtain a new hose and put it on/have it put on with only relatively minor inconvenience.

Does the fact that there is an almost infinite list of disasters keep you from preparing? If so, take heart. While the list of potential disasters is indeed almost infinite, the list of types of damage boils down to a total of three: People, Places, Things.

In the days ahead, we are going to explore these topics. My goal is to introduce you to practical preparedness and help you disaster-proof your life as much as possible.