COVID-19 27Mar20

Where to start. Well, let’s start with the same thing as the last few days. If you are depending on the mainstream media for accurate and unbiased news, please stop. What you are getting from them is a deliberate attempt to create panic for partisan and personal gain. You are NOT getting good info. In fact, what you are getting is a threat to your physical health, your mental health, and your freedoms. The latest of far too many was an attempt to smear a hospital and create a climate of fear. There is no excuse for this. Period. Full Stop. Want to see more lies and distortions, go read this. You also need to read this.

The focus on cases and deaths is not helpful, to put it mildly. It is disingenuous at best (but makes breathtaking headlines), and it makes for bad analysis. Polymath on Twitter makes a good case that looking at composite data for the entire U.S. is not a good idea. I agree, and present the case that we need to be breaking it down further. Each state needs to be examined on its own, and within that each state should be looking at county/regional data hard.

Why? It shows trends, clusters, and other data that makes it easier to plan responses, ensure logistics of needed materials, and ensure other resources get to where they are needed most.

Which gets to the other issue we need to be discussing: How do we get America back to work. A one-size-fits-all approach is not the best approach, and will destroy both the American economy and our freedoms. What is needed is a response proportionate to each location. A rural area or even cities where the spread is minimal do not need to be on the same level of lockdown as an area with significant spread. You change things as the data warrants. This needs to apply not only at the state level, but at each county and even within counties.

Expect this to be fought tooth and nail by some. Far too many politicians are grabbing all they can to make things the way they want them to be, rather than what the Constitution says should be. Don’t believe me? Just look at the number of governors, mayors, and others who are using this as an excuse to ban gun and ammo sales, or take other actions to further radical political agendas. Lots to see out there.

In fact, if you want to see the true Evil, take a look at Nevada governor Sisolack , Michigan governor Whitmer, and (no surprise) His Majesty’s Governor Northam, the Earl of Blackface. Each of these has chosen to ban or severely restrict the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for reasons of politics, not medicine. Yes, I do consider that Evil, not evil, as they are willing to kill the citizens of their states for personal and political gain. They may or may not hate you, but they are willing to help you die. In my book, that’s murder. The law may well say negligent homicide, and if any die or are permanently harmed by the lack of treatment, they may find official immunity does not cover them from such charges and related civil actions. They need to be held to account for this before someone does die. If you live in that state, do you really want to have as a leader someone willing to put politics ahead of the lives and safety of those you love?

Nor are they alone. Look at NYC, where the mayor and top leaders deliberately encouraged actions — in the face of warnings from experts at the CDC and elsewhere — encouraged behaviors that guaranteed a catastrophic outbreak in NYC. There are other, similar stories around the country where elected leaders have put their personal and political gain ahead of the lives of their fellow Citizens, people they have sworn to serve (and protect). Congress, state, local. Again, do you really want to have as a leader someone willing to put politics ahead of the lives and safety of those you love?

Now, on to models which is a hot topic after yesterday’s news. Frankly, I’m disappointed with some I know who are both smart and educated in regards their comments about models and the use of same. Add to the list of those who say: it’s the flu, it’s going to kill us all, this was a Chinese bioattack, it’s all Trump’s fault, those that say we should never use computer models again for policy decisions. People who say any of these things are stupid, and you are probably better off without them in your life. Done right, computer models can be a very useful tool. Then again, like all statistics, they can be used to lie.

Dr. Birx has some thoughts on the subject, and on the media use of misleading (cough, lies, cough) models and statistics. They are well worth the time to watch and listen.

As noted previously, models are only as good as the data that goes in them. The GIGO law still applies today, and will always apply. That said, even flawed models can be useful if used properly.

For every model, there are usually four basic runs: best case, worst case, median, and mode. Running a model to get those four shows a range of outcomes. It helps define the limits of the problem, and with smart analysis, the model itself. With the range defined, you can drill down to get a better understanding of how different responses or other actions (such as different spread rates, death rates, etc. in this case) change outcomes. You can also identify critical areas to explore in more detail.

As noted before, if you are a leader facing a crisis be it a dam breaking or a pandemic hitting, you need good info on best case, worst case, median, and mode and you need it fast. While you hope for best case, you plan and act for worst case in order to get something closer to mean or median if you can’t be sure of getting the best case outcome. You have to depend on the experts to get you the data needed to make the right decisions.

In the case of our response (and it is worth noting that according to Johns Hopkins we were the best prepared nation in the world for a pandemic, thought that does not mean we were as prepared as we should have been, we weren’t.), one of the top experts was wrong with his models and our elites were off doing other things rather than their prime and critical job in the years leading up to this. And, yes, you will find the same thing, even more so, at the FDA and CDC. It is not just a problem with the NIH. There are many lessons to be learned and applied once this is behind us.

So, you as a leader are dependent on those of critical expertise, who may or may not have any political or other biases and who may have little to no real-world experience. You go with what you have, do the best you can, and start correcting on the fly as you get better data. This is what has happened and is happening.

Right now, the issue is not the number of cases or the number of deaths. It is how many require hospital treatment, and more importantly how many will require advanced support. It is frustrating that there is not better data on this, and when I talked about breaking it down as far as we can, this is some of the most critical data out there. If you can project the local spread rate and the local required treatment rate and compare it to the available beds and support… This article takes a look at what states/areas are either at capacity or approaching it. It’s not definitive or hard data, but it’s a good start.

So, what to do? I hope the President will continue to do one thing above all others: cut loose the ingenuity and can-do attitude that is American Exceptionalism and free market capitalism. While government bureaucracy has time and time again hampered efforts at effective and efficient response to COVID-19, American businesses have time and time again worked miracles to meet needs.

We need ventilators. There are major companies lining up to make them. Even better, you have MIT developing a $100 model; and, you have James Dyson designing a new ventilator in 10 days and committing to building 15,000 of them as fast as possible. You have another company designing a device to allow one ventilator to help four patients at a time. There are a lot more stories like this out there. Rather than listen to or watch the media, go do a search and I think it will help your outlook.

You will also find stories where companies that still have manufacturing capabilities here are doubling down. 3M plans to make more than a billion masks by the end of the year. You will find the company that makes the swabs needed for testing (and a host of other uses) working overtime to meet demand and get ahead.

So, Mr. President, keep the bureaucrats at bay, replace the lockdown with a gradated series of responses, and let’s get cracking. Use the better data we are getting to analyze each area and decide what response is best for that area. As we do this, let’s look at what worked, what didn’t, what could have been done better (AARs are a good thing, so long as I don’t have to write them) and then use that as a starting point for the long overdue (and bitterly resisted) modernization, update, and refocusing of the CDC, FDA, NIH (and others, please) on their core missions. Let’s also look at the ineffective and unneeded regulations, burdensome laws, and other impediments to our nation and our economy and eliminate, change, and deal with them as needed.

Once again, COVID-19 is not Capt. Tripps. It is not the flu. Chill, distance, and use good hygiene. STOP THE PANIC!

Also, a reminder once again: if you are sick or think you are sick, DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO VISIT PEOPLE. Stay the frack home. Don’t be Stupid, go to work/out, and insist on getting up close and personal to everyone you meet. Yes, Stupid is capitalized as I work with Stupid, who did just that. Don’t be Stupid.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NOHELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. If you have to travel, or go out for any reason, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

Additional link to Johns Hopkins

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Pipe Puffer (cigar and pipe) regular hours for now

Schoolhouse 7 Cafe

WIBC’s list of local

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 26Mar20

COVID-19 25Mar20

COVID-19 24Mar20

COVID-19 23Mar20

COVID-19 22Mar20

COVID-19 21Mar20

COVID-19 20Mar20

COVID-19 19Mar20

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 23Mar20

This one will be short, as the current breathtaking abrogation of their sworn oaths by one particular group of politicians has me beyond livid. I will #RememberInNovember who put their own venal self-interest ahead of the Republic and the lives and well-being of its Citizens. At least Clyborn was honest about seizing the opportunity (or can a Democrat pounce?) to “restructure things to fit our vision” A pox on them all.

Second, I remain agnostic about whether this is a natural or man-made virus. That said, I am taking the latest study being trumpeted in the media with a tun of salt. The Chinese have bought far too many academic institutions, and academics, for me to trust anything that comes out right now that exonerates them. Wait and watch on this one, and remember that there are at least two academic papers out there (hopefully now in peer review) that say it is man-made.

Third, glad to add another business to the local businesses to support section. If you know of other businesses that should be added, drop me a line here or on Twitter to share info.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NOHELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Pipe Puffer (cigar and pipe) regular hours for now

Schoolhouse 7 Cafe

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 22Mar20

COVID-19 21Mar20

COVID-19 20Mar20

COVID-19 19Mar20

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 22Mar20

For what I am sadly sure will not be the last time, please stop the panic. This is not Captain Tripps though it is also not the flu. Food will be there, the system is catching up, slowly, to the idiotic panic buying of the last week or so. Just stop it. Sit back, chill, and THINK.

For what I am also sadly sure will not be the last time, THE NUMBER OF CASES AND DEATHS IS NOT WHAT IS TRULY IMPORTANT! These numbers are being used, knowingly and willingly, to incite panic and overreaction. Don’t be a chump! While I feel for, and pray for, those who have it and those who will die, the death numbers in the U.S. are going to remain well below that of the flu and any number of other things. If we are smart, and I’m beginning to question that…

The numbers that count are: 1. The number of cases requiring ICU support, and the percentage for that appears to be well above the normal flu; 2. The number of cases that require ventilator support, and again, that number appears to be well above that of the normal flu. And, yes, COVID-19/CCP virus is not a flu, that’s part of the problem (and a reason those comparing it to the flu are stupid). These are the numbers that have overwhelmed health care systems in multiple countries. These are the numbers that concern doctors and others associated with maintaining our healthcare.

And, yes, our numbers are spiking. Why? Testing. Testing that is becoming (far later than it should thanks to the bureaucrats) not only more widely available, but even faster (and hopefully more accurate) tests are starting to ship. Do we have enough? No. But, since the red tape got cut, the numbers have been ramping up even faster than first projected. Don’t believe me? Look it up, the numbers are there for those who will look and think. The spike we are seeing is a good thing. Don’t believe me? Read this. It allows us to isolate people and locations as needed, not via mass shut down of society, a move that is dangerous. It will enable a better and more effective response.

For those focused on age, a side note that you may want to look at this story. Interesting.

If you are still getting your information from the mass/old media, please stop it. They are deliberately inciting panic for both revenue (readers/viewers/listeners) and for partisan political objectives. Don’t believe me, then go read this, this, this, this, this, this, this, and this. The sad thing is, I could probably link to three times this number of posts and fact checks. If I were still a member of any journalism organization, I would be resigned from them in protest and disgust. The even sadder thing is that far too many either don’t care or don’t believe that the media is lying even when confronted with facts. Emotions trump facts for far too many. It’s almost enough to make me wish that this story was true.

For anyone who believes anything the Chinese say, or are joining in on the whole idiotic raaaaacccciiiiiissssst bullshit, read this. One of the reasons we had to react strongly is because we could depend on any information from China being wrong, in fact, a lie. If you want to have some fun, look at the number of mainstream media outlets who are pushing Chinese propaganda and the racism bull who have also taken money, large sums of money in fact, to print/broadcast Chinese propaganda. That’s an interesting (and scary) bit of homework for the students. Want something interesting if a bit scary, read this on how what the media is trumpeting is a lie.

While I haven’t gone through all the numbers, this report is interesting. As we start to get real and accurate numbers, expect to see a lot of revisions to models, reports, and such. Also keep in mind that, as I and others have told you, no matter what our death rate is going to be far lower than China’s (and Italy, Iran, etc.) per capita for a variety of reasons. There are differences in public and private health and sanitation systems, industrial and personal hygiene, air pollution, cigarette smoking rates, population age and health, and a few other factors.

There is a lot more I could get into, but I feel like dreck this morning and would much rather go cook on my two weeks off without pay from my part-time gig. Yes, we had someone stupid come to work sick, insist on getting up close and personal (and shaking hands) with almost everyone (not me, I tended to keep away from them for other reasons), and then deciding they had the flu. Allegedly they were tested, but I don’t think the results could have returned in the time frame where they announced this person had the stomach flu.

To cut it short, I asked my doctor if I should continue to work the part-time gig and was immediately asked if I needed a note. I’m still getting used to being considered “at risk” for a number of things, and don’t really fully agree I am (then again, my mind still tends to think of me as being 20, though the body just laughs), but decided I really didn’t want to do true COVID-19 first-hand reporting. If you care to help me out, hit the tip jar please.

What I may start spending more time on are the good stories coming out of this. Of people pulling together to do something constructive and positive. One such story is about Hotel Tango and Cardinal Spirits (Bloomington) making hand sanitizer. Hotel Tango is a place I recommend you go when they can reopen: outstanding and interesting drink menu and veteran owned. Or this story, one of several, on companies and people stepping up to the ventilator shortage. Shortage? Pah. Get the bureaucrats out of the way, stand back, and watch it disappear as American ingenuity and exceptionalism get unleashed. Holds true for other areas as well. Hope to see more stories like this, where a landlord waived rent so a restaurant could pay its employees.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated, especially as I’m now off for two weeks without pay.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NOHELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Good Sources Of Information On COVID-19

Instapundit (no longer doing roundups, but great articles from Glenn and his team)

South China Morning Post (decent, some salt may be needed)

Business Insider (decent, even if they did fall for some lies about Trump)

New England Journal of Medicine

More to come

Local Independent Businesses That Need Your Support

Oaken Barrel (Twitter at @OakenBarrel)

Shapiros

Greek Islands

Bynum’s Steak House

Pipe Puffer (cigar and pipe) regular hours for now

More to come

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 21Mar20

COVID-19 20Mar20

COVID-19 19Mar20

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 19Mar20

Not sure how to title this morning’s brief, as it will cover conspiracy theories, odd and interesting, and start new sections on sources of information and local businesses that can use some help.

First, let’s start with some facts. First, it is not racist to call it the Wuhan, China, or Chinese coronavirus/flu/etc. That is absolute bullshit being peddled by bought and paid for whores. No, strike that: that is an insult to hard working professionals who actually give value for the money unlike most media and far too many academics. Yes, echoing Heinlein a bit there. Anyone pushing that tripe needs to be told hard and fast to sod off.

One of the reasons we are where we are is China. China lied, obfuscated, and much more. As a result, they guaranteed the spread to other countries, and it must be noted that if not for the travel ban by President Trump (to the tune of screams, tantrums, shouts of racism, and trips to the fainting couch by the unserious) we would be in far worse shape.

One the largest problems, outside of the spread, to come from the willful and deliberate actions of the Chinese government under Xi, is the fact that we can trust no data out of China. Period. We can, and should, note it and where it checks out in comparison to data gathered in open countries and cultures, make use of it. Net result is that we truly won’t have good, solid, useful data for another six months or so. We are gathering data fast about the virus itself, as scientists are starting to literally study it atom by atom; but, that takes a while to process and we are just starting to truly learn it’s vectors, load data, and other essential information for the Game Of Loads And Vectors. We are learning, and learning fast, but it also means we are making decisions on very incomplete information.

So, what do you do in that case? Do you make decisions based on best-case or worst-case scenarios? Go for a middle approach? Truly smart people base off the worst, hope for the best, and take what comes. Does this mean we may overreact to the virus? Yes. In fact, I will go so far as to say it’s guaranteed to some extent. Does this mean the end of the Republic and all it stands for? Only if we let it, either by letting bad bills go through that enact bad laws (which go unchallenged) or by reacting with words and actions on par with Antifa.

The latter is why I’ve lost patience with the chest thumpers. I’ve backed away from some people I formerly respected, and am fast losing respect for far too many others. I’m torn between amusement and disgust at a number of them for the conspiracy theories being put forth. Are the Democrats/Deep State/Republicans/Etc taking advantage of this crisis for their own purposes? Yes. Next question. Is the media deliberately stoking a crisis for fun and profit? Yes. Next question.

Where I have a problem with those taking advantage of the situation boils down to: is what they are doing putting an agenda/politics/their own gain ahead of the Republic and the life and health of its Citizens? If so, I am making notes as that group does not care one iota for anyone but themselves, and would be just as happy if I or my loved ones die so long as it advances them and their cause. Such people are a cancer in the civic body, and need to be excised as fast as possible. In some cases, I advocate immediately (Champaign, IL mayor and council) via recall or other valid means. In others, vote them out and if you can’t vote directly, you can support any opponents they may have running against them that fit your perspectives. Make notes, make informed decisions, then vote. Oh, and I fully agree with Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit: “Concede nothing to the left. They bring nothing to the table.” I would add they bring nothing, but will steal anything and everything not nailed down to the table.

What we don’t need is panic, and there is far too much of it. Yes, the media has encouraged this even before it left China. ‘If it bleeds, it leads’ is an almost ancient mantra within the media. Mysterious disease, mass deaths, huge infection rate, lies and omissions by the Chinese government: it’s like crack for an addict when it comes to the mass media. In an era of declining viewership/readership and revenues, hell yes they jumped in and spun it up. The fact that the arrival of COVID-19/China Virus offered up partisan political advantages (tanking the economy before the election, multiple means to attack the bad orange man, advantages for the DNC primaries, etc.) was just icing on the cake. It is why you should not listen/read/watch them, and take nothing they say as anything but a lie. Lot’s of lies to choose from, may list them all another day. Well, wait, someone else has already done so.

Now, far too many are panicking in the other direction. The it’s not legal/this is stupid/it’s just the flu crowd are indeed panicking and are as bad in their own way as the media. That’s how you get things like this focusing on a novel written a decade or three ago and other coincidences; or, how you get this speculating on the Diamond Princess as if it weren’t a total fiasco. Just as our CDC royally fucked up the initial response here in the U.S. (see previous posts for links and discussion), the Japanese bureaucracy kicked off the epidemiologist there because he warned them they were doing all the wrong things. He was right. What should have been a textbook laboratory experiment and exercise in how to do it right turned into a blinding beacon of how to do it wrong. Which also means numbers from the Diamond Princess can’t be taken at face value. They are skewed because of the fuck-up. Doesn’t mean we can’t learn from them, but they can’t be used as a straight data set. That said, there is a somewhat more reasoned and interesting take on the data (as well as S. Korean data) here. Thanks to Sarah Hoyt at Instapundit for the link.

Well, I’m out of time and nowhere near getting everything in or done I wanted to do this morning. So, let me say the following:

STOP THE FUCKING PANIC! ALL OF YOU!! YES, YOU!!!

Don’t be sheep for the media or anyone else. If it is from the mainstream media, discount. If it is from someone saying this is just the flu, or not as bad as the flu, discount. Strike those two ends off and you have a far better chance of getting good and accurate data and/or analysis. Yes, you may lose an outlier, but it balances. Go for the data and do your own analysis is (always) the best option.

And, yes, I do recommend preparing for further lockdown. The legalities of such I will deal with another day, and yes I do think some politicians are making full use of the crisis and will need to be dealt with. The reality is that regardless of legality/liberty/etc. it is quite likely to happen. Food, drink, OTC’s, etc. get in stock and keep in stock. If it doesn’t happen, you’ve got them and can still use them.

Hope to have more to say later, including on this interesting study from ammo.com. Hoping to get a chance to review it fully later today.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. Any help is very much appreciated.


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NOHELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 18Mar20

COVID-19 17Mar20

COVID-19 16Mar20

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 16Mar20

Yes, the number of cases in the U.S. has gone up. Yesterday it was 2,952 when I snapped the shot of the graphic. This morning, it is 3,774. BFD.

The number is going to rise, and continue to rise. That’s a given since the Chinese government lied, covered-up, and did all it could — up to refusing to allow CDC and WHO experts to help — to screw up anyone having a truly effective response.

As noted yesterday, what matters now is the rate of rise. We have to flatten the curve to stay ahead of this. Here are some cautionary words as to why. (HT Instapundit) On the heels of that, the CDC has issued new guidelines recommending no gatherings of any type of more than 50 people. Since words alone don’t seem to have the needed impact, let’s try a graphic (also stolen from Instapundit).

As for one of the other reasons for slowing the rate we discussed yesterday, here’s some good news: Moderna Therapeutics has shipped a prototype vaccine for clinical trials. While the article says in April, there are other reports this morning that the trial could start as early as this week in Seattle.

Right now there is a lot of chest thumping and posturing on social media by those who claim that this is all an overreaction, un-American (and they do have some valid points from a civil-liberties/libertarian point of view), unneeded, etc. You know what? I hope that four weeks from now you can still crow that it was all overblown and unneeded, as that is the historical way of your kind. I hope that you did not get it, and worse yet share it with parents, grandparents, friends, and others who might not have the survivability you do. I hope you can posture and strut to your heart’s content, as I will simply be happy that we did get ahead of it even if there is no way to prove that it was the steps taken (hard to prove a negative).

Meantime, for those that can and do think rather than strut and posture, here is some additional food for thought.

First, this pandemic has shown that the CDC and FDA need significant reform and modernization, and to be trimmed back to focus on their core missions. In addition, we need to remove yet more regulations that are blocking healthcare innovation and expansion. Excessive regulation is quite literally killing us.

Second, a couple of weeks ago I said that Europe had already fallen given the commitment to open borders (thank you Merkel). Belatedly, they are doing what they should have done then, well after the horses are gone and out of sight.

Third, given the efforts by the Chinese government to blame us for COVID-19 to deflect from their own abysmal failures and liabilities; and, because of their semi-official threats to cut off our medical supplies, I have a modest proposal for the President. The Trump Doctrine calls for the use of economics for leverage and as a form of warfare. So, as part of the efforts I would encourage you to put forth legislation and executive orders to repeal and remove regulatory roadblocks to bringing as much production, development and exploitation of resources, logistics, and related factors to the U.S. Further, I would urge that tax and other incentives be given to those companies who move production that can’t readily be done in the U.S. out of China and to specially designated countries or zones that have proven their friendship with the U.S. in SE Asia and elsewhere in the world including portions of Eastern Europe. Those companies that refuse to move production and other activities out of China should have to face the loss of tax incentives and other direct costs for not so doing. China was brittle before, and is even more so now. Threaten us? Time to tap hard to see how brittle they are, and even perhaps to smash.

Fourth, while not directly related to COVID-19, I suspect strongly that the EU is done. How soon it comes apart is debatable, but it could happen before the end of this year. Germany has shown that its leadership and commitment to living up to the requirements of the EU, such as helping Italy, just aren’t up to it. Resentment is high in every EU country, particularly within the public. Italy rightly believes that Germany and the EU have abandoned them, and there are already some surprisingly high-level open talk about if staying in the EU is a good idea. On the heels of Brexit, such talk is not to be taken lightly.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. With the levels of stupid out there, really do need to up the strategic alcohol and tobacco reserves…


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NOHELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 15Mar20

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 15Mar20 It’s The Rate Of Spread Stupid

The Game Of Loads And Vectors is a game of numbers. Sadly, far to many in the media and online are playing a very dangerous game with the numbers. One group uses each new case, each famous person (or even people related to or vaguely related to a famous person) to stoke fear and panic and/or for personal gain. The other group of idiots is using numbers to claim this isn’t a real threat.

As I’ve noted before, it is not the total number of cases or the number of deaths that truly matters right now. The outcome for people with COVID-19 is going to be vastly different from the outcomes in China, Iran, or elsewhere. Here, the most at-risk population is going to be 70+ with underlying health conditions, and/or those who smoke cigarettes heavily now or previously. A good bit of that has to do with the ACE2 binding previously discussed. For most in the U.S., it will likely be much like having a regular flu.

The real threat we face is in controlling the rate of spread. Why did China, Iran, and Italy have the outcomes they have/are having? It spread rapidly, and overwhelmed the health systems. They simply did not have the beds, the ICU beds, or the supplies to handle the huge number of cases that hit.

Right now, according to the American Hospital Association, there are 924,107 staffed hospital beds in all types of hospitals including psychiatric and other specialty hospitals. There are 792,417 staffed beds in community hospitals. Where there are 97,776 staffed ICU beds in the U.S., only 46,825 of them are medical/surgical intensive care.

While many will have very mild symptoms, there is a percentage of patients that require time in the ICU. This paper looks at data from China (and acknowledges that the official data is problematic) to try to estimate how many that will be, and comes to a max of 2.6 – 4.9 per 10,000 adults. This report looks at Italy and reports a rate of 11 percent needing ICU. This report lays out why COVID-19 is worse than the flu, and looks at the impact on the healthcare system — and on the rate of spread and how it could spread exponentially as in Italy and elsewhere.

So, using the 11 percent figure, there being curretly 2,952 cases in the U.S., that means approximately 325 patients will need long-term (days to weeks) of ICU care. With 46,825 staffed beds, we’re good, right? Yes, we are — today. Will that hold true tomorrow or even next week? The magic ball says maybe. Let’s look at the following two graphs.

This is from the Johns Hopkins interactive graphic that I’ve linked to in almost every post. Note the significant rise associated with the spread of COVID-19 in almost every location. Where spread has not been controlled, there is effectively exponential growth. Now, let’s look at the U.S.

This comes from the CDC, and while not interactive it does have a lot more data than I can show. I would urge you to scroll through the number of cases and watch how it jumps.

Again (and again), there was never any chance to prevent it from getting here, as the Chinese government has lied from the start and used it’s considerable power to prevent other nations from responding by stopping travel. There is no doubt that if President Trump had not — despite howls of outrage from China and the leaders of the Democratic party — put in place a travel ban things would be much worse.

All we can do now is slow the rate of spread. We have to do this to:

• Prevent the spread from overwhelming ICU beds, ventilators, and other medical treatment. Keep in mind that right now Italy has ordered hospitals to stop treating the elderly.

• To buy time to overcome bureaucratic and other roadblocks to testing. Effective, efficient, and fast testing is essential to being sure those who have COVID-19 get treatment and are prevented from helping spread the disease.

• To push the spread out into warmer weather, a time when colds and the flu normally drop off.

• To buy time to develop effective vaccines and treatments and get them made here since the Chinese are now threatening to cut off drug exports to the U.S. (even as they try to blame COVID-19 on us).

What is going on now is not an overreaction to “the flu” as many idiots are claiming. It is a needed, indeed almost a desperate, attempt to prevent our healthcare system from being overwhelmed like far too many others. The number to watch in the days ahead is NOT the number of cases (or who has gotten it), and it is not the number of deaths. It is the rate of spread. If the rate of spread drops, and the total number of cases stays low, we will be in very good shape from a healthcare perspective — and that will drive financial and other perspectives.

Right now, we are in good shape. Let’s all be smart and work together to help keep it that way.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. With the levels of stupid out there, really do need to up the strategic alcohol and tobacco reserves…


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NOHELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 14Mar20

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

COVID-19 14Mar20

If you want to see innovative and effective leadership, you need look no further than to Donald Trump and the Task Force on COVID-19. Rather than seize a crisis to increase the size and scope of the stagnant and ineffective government, he instead showcased the best of American Exceptionalism to partner with industry on innovation that is already having dramatic results. I’m not surprised given some of the partnerships and investments in private enterprise solutions to find cures and speed development of vaccines, but yesterday was unprecedented. The declaration of emergency is clearing out the logjam of regulation so that real and effective steps can be taken and a host of problems solved.

Apparently others noticed this as well. The stock market didn’t just stage a rally, it had what is being reported as a record rise after the President announced his declaration and outlined the various steps being taken and had the leaders of the companies involved say a few words. Then, he had real experts on pandemics and related issues talk — as usual. He pointed out, correctly, that this is something that affects us all and requires government, industry, and even private citizens to work together to address. Contrast this with Pelosi et al and the despicable efforts to load the spending bill with pork and efforts to expand the bureaucracy. For me, I’m noting those who would play politics with the lives and safety of our Citizens and the Republic, and urge you to do so as well.

Also, contrast this with a media that has repeatedly lied, deliberately provoked panic, and now is openly promoting Chinese assets spewing propaganda. And the talking heads wonder why public trust in, and viewership/readership, has taken a nose dive.

More to say, but for now it will have to wait. I simply note that if not for the Trump economy, we would be in real and severe financial trouble. If not for the quick response of the President, responses taken despite efforts by political opposition and the deep state, the infection rate would be far larger and the spread far faster. I am more than impressed with his leadership in this crisis, and anyone who can look at the facts should be as well.

If my posts are enjoyable, helpful, or otherwise a benefit, please consider hitting the tip jar. With the levels of stupid out there, really do need to up the strategic alcohol and tobacco reserves…


•My Amazon Wishlist

As always:

If you suspect you have COVID-19 or have been exposed: call your state health department and work with them so that you can be dealt with in a way that minimizes the chance of spreading the virus to those helping you and to the general public. Can’t get them? Call your local department or see if your health service has online/telemedicine screening set up; or see if one who has will let you use it even if you are not in their network. Do not go out in public, and don’t go to an ER or other facility without calling ahead. Be smart.

Use the interactive graphic to keep track of things. Is COVID19 an epidemic? Yes. Is it a Pandemic? Yes. Is there need for panic? NOHELL NO. Should you be paying attention? Yes. Hell yes. Should you be preparing? Yes, better late than never. And good luck finding/getting stuff.

Want to avoid catching COVID19 here in the U.S.? Wash your flippin hands frequently, wash them thoroughly every time you use the bathroom, then follow with hand sanitizer after every washing, use hand sanitizer liberally when you can’t wash on a regular basis. Cover your mouth and nose when you sneeze, and stay away from those who don’t. Also, keep your bugger hooks out of/away from your eyes, nose, and mouth. Do NOT shake hands with anyone, and avoid touching or being touched by strangers. Or your strange friends.

Avoid travel if at all possible. Right now, there is no way I’m going to a trade show, major convention, etc. If you can telecommute, get that set up now. If you have to travel, use lots of hand sanitizer and go to full flu protocols. If you have to use a public restroom, take full precautions including using paper towels and such to handle faucets, doors,etc.  Believe it or not, this was highly recommended before now, and major grocery chains have long told employees to use those practices to avoid getting or spreading colds, flu, etc.  Not many actually do it, but…  

If you own a business, make sure your employees know the above protocols. Have someone who refuses to wash their hands or otherwise follow the protocols? Talk to them, write them up, and if necessary fire them as they now pose a risk of infection to you and your customers. Extreme? Yes, but while the CDC and others are working to slow it down, odds are it is already here and could hit hard and fast. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I want to reiterate that there is no need for panic, but there is a strong need to be alert, be informed, and be prepared.

Other COVID19/COVID-19/2019-nCoV articles:

COVID-19 13Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors Gets Real For America

COVID-19 12Mar20

COVID-19 11Mar20

COVID-19 10Mar20

COVID-19 9Mar20 The Game Of Loads And Vectors

COVID-19 8Mar20

Heh

COVID-19 7Mar20 How To Do It Right If You Have/Have Been Exposed To COVID-19

COVID-19 6Mar20

COVID-19 5Mar20

COVID-19 4Mar20

COVID-19 3Mar20

COVID-19 What Am I Doing?

COVID-19 2Mar20

COVID-19 1Mar20

COVID-19 29Feb20

Quick Additional Thoughts On The Bureaucracy

Panic Is Off And Running

COVID-19 28Feb20 Reasons To Hope, Reasons To Fear

COVID-19 A Plea To The Politicians (And Media)

COVID-19 27Feb20

COVID-19 Breaking A Chain?

COVID-19 26Feb20

COVID19 The Situation In China Gets Even Weirder

COVID19 25Feb20

COVID19 24Feb20 Raising DEFCON

COVID19 23Feb20

COVID19 22Feb20

COVID19 21Feb20: Just Look At The Blooms Dear

COVID19 Update 20Feb20

COVID19 Update

Update & Quick Thoughts On Preparedness

Expansion On A Theme

Well Maybe I Was Wrong

Some Quick Thoughts On Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Why Should You Be Prepared?

Keeping Alert

Coronavirus And Practical Preparedness

Chinese Operatives

Image stolen from Liberty.Me/Ombreolivier

If there are competent counter-intelligence officers and operations out there (something I’m beginning to doubt), they should be having a field day with the number of operatives and influencers working for the Chinese government who have self-identified over the last few weeks. Here in the U.S. it has been amazing to watch how many have come forth, including in the media. One hopes that any such hypothetical competent officers and operations are quietly investigating same.

Meantime, things have reached a point where the U.S. has declared five Chinese media operations as state propaganda efforts. Long overdue.